Hi All,

We wrap up our college football week with a 3-2 record and up about 2 units thanks to one of those being a 2 unit play on Thursday night. We lost the last bet of the night on a late field goal with seconds remaining. It happens.

We have many many straight days of football now and with our models really having good data this is our time to shine.

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We start with Sunday Night Football.

Steelers vs Cowboys

1. Cowboys +3 (-115)

• Rationale: The Cowboys are being undervalued due to their injury situation, particularly on defense with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence out. However, the Steelers’ offense, led by Justin Fields, has been inconsistent and faces its toughest challenge so far. Dallas has been efficient in the passing game with Dak Prescott, and their quick passing attack should help neutralize Pittsburgh's pressure. The Cowboys' stronger offensive line and the better quarterback in Prescott provide good value as underdogs.

**2. George Pickens Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

• Rationale: With Jaylen Warren out and the Cowboys dealing with multiple defensive injuries, including their pass rushers, George Pickens is primed to have a big game. Pickens has been the most productive receiver for Pittsburgh, and he excels against zone defenses like Dallas'. His high target share and ability to exploit zones make the over a strong play, especially given his performance in recent games.

3. Over 43.5 Total Points (-115)

• Rationale: The game shapes up as a higher-scoring contest than the under trend in prime-time games suggests. Dallas has struggled to stop the run, and the absence of key defensive players should lead to more opportunities for Pittsburgh's offense. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense, particularly through the air, should take advantage of Pittsburgh's middle-of-the-pack passing defense. With both defenses dealing with injuries and weaknesses that align with the offensive strengths of their opponents, the over looks appealing.

4. Najee Harris Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

• Rationale: With Jaylen Warren out and Dallas ranking as the NFL's worst team in run defense by DVOA, this is a prime spot for Najee Harris to have a heavy workload. His performance has been inconsistent, but given the favorable matchup and expected volume, the over on his rushing yards looks like a good bet.

5. Justin Fields Over 199.5 Passing Yards (+115)

• Rationale: Fields has been more aggressive in recent weeks, and without Parsons and Lawrence, Dallas’ pass rush will be less effective. This should give him more time to push the ball downfield. Fields has passed for over 240 yards in his last two games, and with Pickens and Freiermuth being reliable targets, this number looks attainable.

6. Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions (-108)

• Rationale: With MyCole Pruitt out and Freiermuth’s snap count increasing, he’s a solid bet to clear this low reception line. He’s been consistently targeted and will likely play a key role in short-yardage situations, especially with Dallas’ defense missing key playmakers.

7. Cowboys First-Half Moneyline (+115)

• Rationale: With extra preparation time and a strong start expected from the Cowboys' offense, taking them to lead at halftime provides solid value. Dallas has been efficient in the first half of games, and Pittsburgh has started slower in several of their games this season.