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Good Morning!

We’ve got some playoff baseball to cover this morning!

I want to apologize for not getting anything baseball related out yesterday. Unfortunately life happened and I was unable to analyze the games.

We are back today though!

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We only have 1 game for today. It’s the series decider between the Brewers and the Mets.

I also want to remind premium members that we have a college football bet tonight. If you haven’t locked that in I suggest you go back to Tuesday’s letter and reread that post!

This is what our A.I. thinks about the game:

Brewers vs Mets

Moneyline:

• Brewers -123
  The Brewers have won 55 of 93 games when favored this season (59.1%), and they’ve been even better when favored by at least -123, with a record of 43-25 (63.2%). Playing at home also gives the Brewers an edge. Given their recent performance (6-4 in their last 10 games), backing them at -123 seems like a reasonable play.

• Mets +104
  The Mets have won 44.6% of the games when playing as underdogs this season (29 of 65 games). While they’re in decent form recently (5-5 in their last 10 games), their run-scoring struggles (3.7 runs per game over the last 10) could be a concern. The Mets’ chances to win are implied at 46%, which aligns closely with the actual odds, but the Brewers appear to have the edge here.

Total: Over 7.5 (-112) / Under 7.5 (-108)

• Over 7.5 (-112)
  The Brewers have averaged 4.6 runs per game over their last 10, and the Mets have managed only 3.7 runs per game. However, both teams have been hitting the over more often, with the Brewers going over the total in 5 of their last 10 games. Given the prediction of a 5-4 Brewers win (total of 9 runs), the over 7.5 is a strong consideration.

• Under 7.5 (-108)
  While the Mets have hit the under in 5 of their last 10 games, the Brewers' pitching (ERA of 3.64 and K/9 of 9.0) and Mets' average hitting could combine to keep the score lower. But with both teams showing an ability to hit the over recently, the under seems riskier.

Run Line:

• Brewers -1.5 (+167)
  This is the high-reward, high-risk option. The Brewers covering the -1.5 spread would need them to win by two or more runs. Their offense and pitching are solid, but with a projected 5-4 scoreline, this is a bit riskier unless the Brewers' offense breaks out.

• Mets +1.5 (-201)
  This safer bet allows the Mets to lose by just one run and still cover the spread. Given that the game is projected to be close, backing the Mets to keep it tight at +1.5 may be the safest bet, though the odds reflect the heavy juice for this option.

Best Bet Recommendation:

• Over 7.5 (-112): The teams' recent performance and the projected scoreline point toward a higher-scoring game. Both teams have been in matchups hitting the over recently, and the Brewers' offense is performing well.

• Brewers Moneyline (-123): Given their form at home and better offensive numbers, backing the Brewers to win straight up is also a solid bet.

The over 7.5 and Brewers moneyline offers good value in this matchup.