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Chiefs @ Jaguars — Monday Night Football Preview

Matchup & Line

• Spread / Total: Chiefs ~ –3.5, Total ~ 45.5 points according to sportsbooks. Action Network+2CBSSports.com+2

• Form & Context: Kansas City (2–2) is riding momentum after back-to-back wins, including a convincing win over Baltimore. PFF+2CBSSports.com+2 Jacksonville (3–1) is strong at home and bolstered by a stout defense and great turnover numbers. ESPN.com+3Arrowhead Pride+3CBSSports.com+3

✅ Best Bet(s) & Prop Angles

🏈 Spread & Total Thoughts

• Lean: Chiefs –3.5
  The edge seems to favor KC — Mahomes historically performs vs. Jacksonville, and the Chiefs have regained offensive rhythm.

• Alternate angle: Under 45.5
  Several models project a relatively lower scoring game. The sportsbooks and previews show some support for this direction.

🎯 Prop Plays to Watch

• Travis Etienne Over ~64.5 Rushing Yards
  Jacksonville leans heavily on the run, and KC’s run defense has had weaknesses, especially early downs.

• Xavier Worthy Over ~61.5 Receiving Yards
  Worthy’s role is increasing, and he could be a strong target for Mahomes tonight.

• Isiah Pacheco Over ~27.5 Rushing Yards
  Even if KC leans passing, Pacheco should see enough volume to clear this modest line.

• Patrick Mahomes Over ~21.5 Rushing Yards
  Mahomes’ mobility can be a factor, especially if the Jaguars bring pressure or force rollouts.+2PFF+2

🔎 Final Word

This is a tight MNF booking. The Chiefs –3.5 is my lean — I believe KC’s experience, offensive resurgence, and Mahomes’ track record give them the edge. That said, playing the under 45.5 is a reasonable alternative, especially if the Jaguars slow things down.