Good Morning,

Before you submit your final bracket, you need to go through these betting trends that I’ve identified.

This edition of “AI Smart Sports Betting” will be a little different, but it will absolutely help you win money.

This is the start of a series that will cover all of March Madness and help you win bets.

This will be the best edition of this publication that I’ve ever written.

The Complete Betting Guide to March Madness

Round 1 Overall Trends:

• Teams that didn’t make their conference tournament championship game are 37-58-2 against the spread (38.9%) versus conference champions or teams that played in a conference championship. There are usually only a few of these matchups per year but they often prove to be good bets. In the 2023 NCAA Tournament there were 6 of these matchups. Betting the conference championship playing team to cover resulted in a 5-1 record. Look for these matchups and consider them when making betting decisions.

• Power conference schools that lost straight up & against the spread in their conference championship game are 60-16 straight up in the first round of the tournament over the past 15 seasons. This shows that despite losing in the conference tournament, the experience they gained was helpful. Look for good straight up bets on power conference schools that made a run but came up a bit short in their conference tournaments.

• Small first round favorites (-1 to -3) are 43-66-4 against the spread (39.5%) since 2009. They are 54-59 straight up. Statistically, the small underdog covering has been a successful trend covering 60%+ since 2009. Take a look at these matchups in the first round as they could be beneficial.

• In the past 10 NCAA tournaments, first round favorites of 13.5 points or more have gone 39-50-1 against the spread or 43.8%. Notably, they have gone 82-9 straight up though. These tend to be games where the favorite doesn’t cover the majority of the time but still leads to winning. Just another trend for you to consider while choosing games.

Round 1 Trends by Seed:

• 1 seeds favorited by 19 points or greater are 13-24 against the spread since 2009 (35%). When favored by 18.5 points or less 1 seeds are on an 8-1 run. It is important to note that some years’ top teams are better than others. It does appear that we have strong 1 seeds this year. It will be interesting to see the spreads and what kind of lines we get with our 1 seeds.

• 2 seeds are 13-23-1 against the spread (36.1%) when favored by greater than points. 2 seeds that are favored by less than 17 points have an impressive 20-8-2 (71.4%) against the spread. It’s incredibly important to note the spread here and go with the historical trends.

• 3 seeds playing as single digit favorites have been trending towards the under in a massive way since 2003. The run is 20-7 towards the under (74.1%)

• 4 seeds have good 13-22-1 against the spread (37.1%) over the past 9 tournaments. 4 seeds are also 6-14-1 against the spread when favored by more than 8.5 points. This is pretty notable and solid historical trend to fade the 4 seeds against the spread especially if it is creeping up towards double digits.

• 5 seeds are 8-16-2 (33.3%) against the spread since 2009 when playing as a 6 point favorite or more. 5 seeds with large spreads are usually a good fade.

• 6 seeds are 21-34-1 against the spread (38.2%) in the past 56 first round games against 11’s. They also have went to the under 67.1% of the time in that same time frame. 6 seeds playing as underdogs or pick ‘ems are 4-11 SU since 2001. When 6 seeds are favored by 4 points or more the under has cashed 79.2% of the time since 2009 posting a 19-5 record

• Non power conference schools playing as 7 seeds have gone 21-9-1 against the spread since 2004. 7 seeds playing in the +3 to -3 range have gone 35-23-1 against the spread since 2003. 7/10 games tend to hit the over a bit more going 58.1% since 2015.

• 8 seeds are 7-13 against the spread the past 5 years (35%). As favorites of 3 points or less, 8 seeds are 5-17-1 posting a brutal 22.7%. This shows that small favored 8 seeds have been a strong fade.

What’s It All Mean?

I’ve given you all the trends that make for a successful bettor in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

I’ve broken these trends out this past weekend before the brackets were released. By now, brackets are out and we know a little bit about the matchups.

You can take the info above and make bets based on them or…

We will identify ALL of the bets that match these trends and share them with you right here in this letter.

This will be available to all premium subscribers of our newsletter. Get your whole month for $15!

We will start rolling out bets Monday afternoon or Tuesday morning!

Until then…

-Caleb