Good Morning,

I am working on our entire card for Saturday college football. I’ve got a whole list of matchups that I am reworking and trimming down to the absolute best bets.

I’ve went through every matchup and I think we’ve got a handful of solid bets!

I’ve already given 1 bet for tonight, but I’ve got another.

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Fresno State vs Nevada

Nevada +3 (-110)

• Strengths:

  • Nevada's rushing offense is ranked 17th in the country, averaging 215 yards per game. This is a significant strength, especially against Fresno State’s run defense, which is ranked 67th and allows 143 yards per game. Nevada should be able to lean on its ground game to control the clock and move the chains.

  • Fresno State’s defense is solid but not elite, ranked 62nd overall and 67th against the run. Nevada’s strong rushing attack could expose Fresno’s average run defense and allow Nevada to stay within striking distance throughout the game.

  • Nevada’s rush defense, ranked 72nd, should have a decent matchup against Fresno State’s weak rushing offense, which ranks 112th, averaging only 114 yards per game. If Nevada can force Fresno into a one-dimensional, pass-heavy game, it could slow down Fresno’s ability to pull away.

  • Nevada’s strength of schedule is much tougher (48 out of 134), and their record (3-4) might not fully reflect how well they’ve played given the competition level.

• Concerns:

  • Nevada’s passing offense is weak, ranked 116th, which could make it hard for them to keep up if Fresno State jumps ahead early. However, their ground game could help keep the game close.

  • Fresno’s passing attack, ranked 32nd with 270 yards per game, could be a problem for Nevada’s 107th-ranked pass defense, but if Nevada can limit big plays, they should be able to keep the game close enough to cover.

Fresno State -3 (-110)

• Strengths:

  • Fresno State’s passing game, ranked 32nd, has the potential to exploit Nevada’s weak pass defense (107th). If Fresno can get their passing game going early, they might be able to build a lead and force Nevada to throw more often, which isn’t their strength.

  • Fresno’s overall defense, ranked 62nd, is respectable, and their passing defense, ranked 55th, could help limit Nevada’s already weak aerial attack.

• Concerns:

  • Fresno’s rushing offense is ranked 112th, averaging only 114 yards per game. If they struggle to run the ball, it could make them one-dimensional, allowing Nevada to focus on defending the pass.

  • Fresno’s defense isn’t dominant enough to completely shut down Nevada’s rushing attack, which could keep the game closer than expected.

Over 49.5 (-110)

• Case for Over:

  • Fresno’s passing offense against Nevada’s weak pass defense could lead to big plays and scoring opportunities for Fresno.

  • Nevada’s rushing offense, ranked 17th, could also wear down Fresno’s defense, potentially contributing to points on the ground.

  • Both teams’ defenses have vulnerabilities, especially in pass defense, which suggests that there could be enough scoring to hit the over.

Under 49.5 (-110)

• Case for Under:

  • If Nevada’s strong rushing game controls the pace of the game, it could lead to long drives and fewer possessions, which would keep the score down.

  • Both teams have solid defenses in some areas (Nevada’s rush defense and Fresno’s overall defense), so there’s potential for a lower-scoring game, especially if Nevada’s run-heavy approach slows the tempo.

Recommendation:

The best bet here is Nevada +3 (-110). Nevada’s rushing attack is the most consistent unit in this game, and they are facing a Fresno State defense that has shown some vulnerability against the run. If Nevada can control the pace with their ground game and keep the score close, they are in a good position to cover the spread, especially with Fresno struggling in the run game themselves.

This is a 1 unit bet for me.