Yo!

I’ve found another bet I really like for Saturday college football and I am going to share it to you all right now.

I’ll give you the A.I. breakdown as well as my analysis.

If you like this format, this is what I am giving to premium members all the time! You can try it below for $15.

Also, just a quick note. There will be no PrimeTime preview NFL bets today. This is just a 1 time pause and we will be back with a Prime Time bet on Sunday night.

Missouri vs Texas A&M

Team Metrics Breakdown:

Missouri:

• Total Offense: 19th (472 yards per game)

• Total Defense: 3rd (219 yards per game)

• Rush Offense: 26th (206 yards per game)

• Rush Defense: 10th (92 yards per game)

• Pass Offense: 37th (266 yards per game)

• Pass Defense: 5th (127 yards per game)

• Strength of Schedule: 109th

Texas A&M:

• Total Offense: 71st (393 yards per game)

• Total Defense: 52nd (330 yards per game)

• Rush Offense: 13th (231 yards per game)

• Rush Defense: 55th (124 yards per game)

• Pass Offense: 116th (162 yards per game)

• Pass Defense: 64th (207 yards per game)

• Strength of Schedule: 36th

Key Points for Missouri +2.5 (-110):

1. Missouri’s Elite Defense:

   • Missouri’s total defense is ranked 3rd, allowing just 219 yards per game, which is elite. They are particularly strong in defending both the run (10th, allowing 92 yards per game) and the pass (5th, allowing only 127 yards per game).

   • This is significant because Texas A&M’s offense is heavily reliant on their run game (13th, 231 yards per game). However, with Missouri’s strong run defense, A&M will likely struggle to establish their ground game.

   • Texas A&M’s passing offense is one of the worst in the nation (116th), which could play right into Missouri’s hands, allowing them to stifle A&M’s offensive production and keep the game close.

2. Missouri’s Balanced Offense vs. A&M’s Inconsistent Defense:

   • Missouri’s offense is balanced with a strong rushing attack (26th, 206 yards per game) and a solid passing game (37th, 266 yards per game). They should be able to move the ball effectively against Texas A&M, whose defense ranks only 52nd overall.

   • A&M’s rush defense is ranked 55th, allowing 124 yards per game. While this is decent, it’s not dominant, and Missouri’s ability to run the ball consistently (206 yards per game) could wear down the Aggie defense.

3. Missouri’s Favorable Matchup Against Texas A&M’s Weaknesses:

   • Texas A&M is heavily reliant on their run game, and with Missouri’s elite rush defense (10th), A&M may be forced into passing situations, where they struggle. Missouri’s pass defense ranks 5th, allowing only 127 yards per game, which will put immense pressure on A&M’s already weak passing attack (116th).

   • Missouri’s offense, particularly their passing game (37th), should also find success against A&M’s mediocre pass defense (64th, allowing 207 yards per game). Missouri’s ability to throw the ball will help them keep pace or even take control of the game.

4. Strength of Schedule:

   • While Texas A&M has faced a tougher schedule (36th vs. Missouri’s 109th), Missouri’s dominant statistical performance suggests they’ve been extremely effective regardless of the level of competition. Missouri’s defense, in particular, looks capable of shutting down A&M’s offensive strengths, especially the run.

5. Game Style and Spread:

   • With a tight spread of +2.5, Missouri doesn’t need to win by much or at all to cover, and their strong defense gives them an edge in a game that could be lower-scoring and more competitive. A&M’s one-dimensional offense is a concern against such a well-rounded defense, and Missouri’s balanced offensive attack should keep them within striking distance.

Conclusion: Missouri +2.5 (-110)

Missouri’s elite defense, particularly their ability to stop the run, combined with Texas A&M’s struggles in the passing game, makes Missouri +2.5 a strong play. Missouri’s balanced offense should exploit A&M’s defensive inconsistencies, and the Tigers have the tools to either win outright or at least keep the game within the margin needed to cover the spread.

Caleb’s Breakdown:

There are a couple things of note about this game that I see:

1) This is a road game for Missouri and so far Texas A&M has played a harder schedule. This is why A&M is getting the nod at -2.5 on the spread.

2) I think it will be a close game but I think Missouri will win it. I like getting the points here.

3) I did a deep dive on the PFF ratings and there are a few areas that I think Missouri can exploit against Texas A&M.

4) The battle of the line of scrimmage. Missouri has graded out better and should have an edge on Texas A&M on both sides of the ball. Winning the battle of the line of scrimmage is key to winning a game. Missouri’s entire offensive line is graded in the top 80 of offensive lineman with 2 of them being top 15 lineman in the country. A&M’s Dline across the board grade out in the bottom 50% of defensive lineman. To be fair, A&M has a solid linebacking core. When you flip the field, A&M’s offensive line all grade out in the top 100 as well. The difference is that Missouri’s tackles are both top 100 defensive tackles.

5) Missouri’s cornerbacks match up much better against A&M’s receivers than A&M’s receivers match up against Missouri’s corners.

6) A&M grades out higher at every major category within PFF except for 1 which is rushing offense.

Once again, this could easily go against us. I like bets where statistics, data, and PFF all point to one team being a better team than the other. This one meets that criteria and should give us a solid bet. However, that’s why they play the games. We will see how it goes!

-Caleb