Good Morning All,

It’s really starting to feel like fall and that makes college football all the more fun. We SMACKED a 3 unit bet on Army Thursday night and cashed it. I am feeling more and more confident in our ability to predict games now that we are getting more data and better data on each teams. It’s hard to get a real feel for a lot of teams until they start conference play.

We’ve got a few of the biggest games of the weekend and betting breakdowns on them.

I hope you enjoy:

Georgia vs Alabama

Team Metrics Analysis

Georgia:

• Total Offense: 65th (402 yards per game)

• Total Defense: 4th (202 yards per game)

• Rush Offense: 84th (145 yards per game)

• Rush Defense: 42nd (110 yards per game)

• Pass Offense: 48th (256 yards per game)

• Pass Defense: 1st (91 yards per game)

• Strength of Schedule: 6th

Alabama:

• Total Offense: 24th (466 yards per game)

• Total Defense: 13th (248 yards per game)

• Rush Offense: 19th (238 yards per game)

• Rush Defense: 68th (132 yards per game)

• Pass Offense: 69th (228 yards per game)

• Pass Defense: 7th (115 yards per game)

• Strength of Schedule: 7th

Betting Options

1. Georgia -1 (-110):

   • Georgia has a strong defense, particularly against the pass, where they rank 1st in the nation, allowing just 91 yards per game. They also have a respectable pass offense and solid overall defense, which could help them cover the small 1-point spread. However, Georgia’s rushing attack is mediocre (84th), which might limit their ability to exploit Alabama’s weaker rush defense.

2. Alabama +1 (-110):

   • Alabama has a better total offense and rush offense, which could be crucial in breaking through Georgia’s solid defense. Alabama’s pass defense is also ranked 7th, which should allow them to limit Georgia’s passing attack. With a more balanced offensive attack and a strong run game, Alabama could cover this spread or even win outright.

3. Over 49.5 (-110):

   • While both teams have strong defenses, particularly in pass defense, Alabama’s rushing offense is formidable (19th) and could score on Georgia’s 42nd-ranked rush defense. If both offenses find ways to move the ball, they might be able to combine for over 49.5 points, but it will depend on whether the defenses can hold.

4. Under 49.5 (-110):

   • Both teams have elite defenses, especially against the pass, with Georgia allowing only 91 yards per game through the air and Alabama allowing 115. The game could be low-scoring, with both teams relying more on defense and grinding it out on the ground. The under looks appealing considering both teams' defensive dominance.

Recommended Bet

The Under 49.5 (-110) looks like the best bet. Both teams have elite pass defenses, ranking 1st and 7th, respectively, and this should limit explosive plays through the air. Alabama’s strong rushing attack and Georgia’s stout defense should lead to a slower-paced, defensive battle. The under is a solid play given the defensive capabilities of both teams.

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Penn State vs Illinois

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