College Football + An Announcement

Yo!

Second email for today. I’ve got a couple things to get to real quick (1 of them being a college football bet). I love college athletics. There’s something about the imperfection of it. Teams have real deficiencies. Not that the pro teams don’t, but it’s certainly much more compressed. It’s fun to analyze 2 imperfect teams playing each other and project all the ways it could go right and wrong for each team. A little more on that in just a bit.

I’ve got a minor annoucement! We’ve launched an affiliate program for “AI Smart Sports Betting.” We are so glad you show up and read this email daily. We think your friends may like it too.

I’ve put together a 4 page PDF on how to bet like the pros. In exchange for getting 1 friend to sign up for our newsletter you will be automatically sent that document for free.

I always try to keep it real with you guys. This affiliate program is just to get someone to sign up for our free email. We do offer subscriptions, but as you all know we get tons of bets to our free users each week. We will continue to offer up our bets generated by A.I. and hope that you will share with your friends!

Now, lets talk some college football.

Most teams have wrapped up the non conference portion of their schedule. This is about the time where our A.I. model has enough data to really start getting a good read on teams. This is backed up by going 4-2 last week in our college football bets. As we get more data our projections get better.

As I get more data I love diving into some of the more obscure games in college football. And woooooo do I think I’ve found a good one and a good bet.

This Thursday night South Alabama will play App State. It’ll be on ESPN. I know we have NFL going on at the same time that night. This is actually to our advantage. Sharp bettors get on lines early. No one is looking at this game right now. We probably won’t see any line movement until Thursday morning/afternoon.

I’ve got the A.I. breakdown of the game and then I’ve got my summary of the breakdown.

Let me tell you what A.I. has to say:

Team Metrics Analysis

App State:

• Total Offense: 30th (456 yards per game)

• Total Defense: 118th (447 yards per game)

• Run Defense: 106th (177 yards per game)

• Pass Defense: 115th (269 yards per game)

• Run Offense: 92nd (135 yards per game)

• Pass Offense: 16th (321 yards per game)

• Strength of Schedule: 85

South Alabama:

• Total Offense: 12th (514 yards per game)

• Total Defense: 99th (394 yards per game)

• Run Defense: 56th (120 yards per game)

• Pass Defense: 116th (274 yards per game)

• Run Offense: 30th (209 yards per game)

• Pass Offense: 21st (305 yards per game)

• Strength of Schedule: 112

Betting Options

1. App State -8 -110: App State is favored by 8 points. Given that App State has strong passing offense but weak overall defense, particularly against both the run and the pass, they might struggle against South Alabama’s potent offense.

2. South Alabama +8 -110: South Alabama is the underdog with an 8-point spread. Considering South Alabama has a high total offense ranking and a better run defense, they might be able to keep the game close or even win. Their pass defense is weak, but App State’s offense might not be enough to overcome their defense with the current spread.

3. Total Points Over 63.5 -110: Both teams have high offensive capabilities, with Team 1 having the 16th-ranked passing offense and Team 2 having the 12th-ranked total offense. Both teams also have weak pass defenses. Given these offensive strengths and defensive weaknesses, the game could likely see a high number of points.

4. Total Points Under 63.5 -110: This would be the bet if you expected defensive improvements or if one team’s defense significantly impacts the game, but with the provided metrics, this seems less likely.

Recommended Bet

Given the high offensive capabilities of both teams and their poor defensive metrics, the total points over 64.5 seems like a solid bet. Both teams are likely to score heavily due to their offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities. The over/under line aligns well with the expectation of a high-scoring game based on the data provided.

Best Hypothetical Bet: Total Points Over 63.5 -110

Caleb’s Added Analysis:

Be sure to line shop this line with all the sports books you have access to. Some books are up to 64.5 as the total but both Caesars and MGM still offer 63.5 at -110 odds.

If you take a minute to look at this matchup, I see a few glaring things that make me love this bet. We have 2 statistically strong offenses matching up against 2 statistically bad defenses.

South Alabama hung 87 points last week. They didn’t play anyone, but being able to hang 87 means that you can score some points. They also scored 38 points in a losing effort.

App state hasn’t scored as much but their level of opponent has been better. They scored 38 in their opening game and then also put up 20 points on Clemson. 20 points is not a lot of points but when you adjust for opponent I like that App State was able to put up 20 on Clemson.

I don’t know how much this line will move but I’m positive it will likely finish above 63.5 at kickoff. I like the potential for a lot of points in this one and wanted to get it out to you early.

If you’re a psycho like me and want to bet on some Thursday night Sunbelt Conference action, I really like the over.

-Caleb