Good Morning!

Today we launch our new discord server! With this I will have much more time to run my model on different games and matchups. Premium Subscribers will receive a steady stream of bets all throughout the day as we cap games and send them out to all of you!

Today is the LAST DAY to join the server at our heavily discounted price (link below)

After today, the price will be increasing forever. Anyone who joins today or who is already a member will keep this price forever.

When you join, you can find the discord link a little lower on this email below the paywall! If you are already a paying member, you will find the link a little lower below the paywall!

Free Bet

The Cleveland Guardians (8-7) will take on the Baltimore Orioles (6-9) on Tuesday at 7:05 p.m. EDT in Baltimore.

Starting Pitchers:

• Guardians: Logan Allen (0-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 5 strikeouts)

• Orioles: Charlie Morton (0-3, 8.78 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 17 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Orioles -148, Guardians +124

• Run Line: Orioles -1.5 (+130), Guardians +1.5 (-155)

• Over/Under: 8.5 runs

Analysis:

• Orioles’ Strengths:

  • Despite their overall struggles, the Orioles have been strong at home (2-3) and have a good track record when hitting two or more home runs in a game (3-1).

  • Cedric Mullins has been leading the charge with 3 home runs and 16 RBIs, and Adley Rutschman has contributed consistently.

  • However, Charlie Morton has struggled this season, posting a dismal 8.78 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. His inconsistency could be a factor against the Guardians' offense.

• Guardians’ Strengths:

  • Cleveland has been solid, with a 6-4 record in their last 10 games. Their pitching staff has been effective with a 3.31 ERA, which ranks better than the Orioles.

  • Logan Allen has been reliable, holding a 3.60 ERA, although his WHIP (1.80) suggests he has given up some baserunners. The Guardians will rely on their pitchers to limit the damage.

  • Offensively, Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo have been key contributors, with Kwan hitting a home run over the last 10 games.

Betting Recommendations:

• Moneyline: The Orioles are favored at -148, but given Morton’s struggles, Cleveland at +124 provides some value, particularly with Allen’s strong start to the season. The Guardians offer a good value as underdogs.

• Run Line: The Orioles at -1.5 (+130) offer good potential, especially considering they tend to win big when hitting multiple home runs. However, betting on the Guardians at +1.5 (-155) seems safer, given Morton’s poor form and the Guardians' solid pitching.

• Total: The over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Considering Morton’s high ERA and the potential for Cleveland to get to him, betting on the over might be the right choice.

Conclusion: Betting on the over 8.5 runs offers value, especially with Morton’s struggles and the Guardians’ pitching advantage.

Premium Bets

Below you can join the server! I’ll be adding bets in there throughout the day. Get in and let’s cash some bets!