Best Bets - 9/9/2024

Good Morning,

I am back with this week’s best baseball bets for today. Later today we will have a betting preview breaking down the Monday night football matchup between the Jets and 49ers.

We had a solid weekend of betting. After 3 prime time football games we have a betting record of 12-7 in the NFL. It’s also been over a week since we’ve had a losing day with baseball.

I’ll have all the games for the MLB slate broke down below and will try to get my Monday Night Football Betting Preview out around lunch time.

Miami Marlins (54-89) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-76)

Location: Pittsburgh; Monday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Marlins: Valente Bellozo (2-2, 3.78 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 33 strikeouts)

• Pirates: Paul Skenes (9-2, 2.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 142 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Pirates -256, Marlins +208

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -115, Under -115)

• Run Line: Pirates -1.5 (-115), Marlins +1.5 (-105)

Game Breakdown:

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a clear edge in this matchup, particularly with Paul Skenes on the mound. Skenes has been dominant this season with a 2.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, making him one of the best pitchers in the NL. The Pirates are also strong at home when they score at least five runs, holding a 43-18 record in such games.

On the other side, the Marlins have struggled, especially on the road, with a 26-42 record. They have difficulty when they give up home runs, and the Pirates have the potential to exploit this weakness.

Best Bet:

• Run Line: Pirates -1.5 (-115)

Given the Pirates' strong home performance, Skenes' dominance, and the Marlins' struggles, the best bet is taking the Pirates on the run line at -1.5. This offers better value than the moneyline, given the Pirates are heavily favored, and they have the potential to win by multiple runs against a struggling Miami team.

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Tampa Bay Rays (71-72) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (85-58)

Location: Philadelphia; Monday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Rays: Cole Sulser (0-0, 4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11 strikeouts)

• Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (10-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 131 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Phillies -202, Rays +167

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -125, Under +105)

• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+105), Rays +1.5 (-125)

Game Breakdown:

The Philadelphia Phillies have been dominant at home with a 47-25 record, and they perform exceptionally well when scoring five or more runs, holding a 60-11 record in those situations. Cristopher Sanchez, who has been solid all season, is taking the mound for the Phillies. He has a respectable 3.45 ERA and should be able to keep the Rays' offense in check.

The Tampa Bay Rays are hovering around .500 and are playing away from home, where they have been inconsistent. Cole Sulser, who has yet to record a decision this season, is starting for the Rays. His 4.35 ERA and limited experience this season suggest he might struggle against a potent Phillies lineup.

Best Bet:

• Moneyline: Phillies -202

While the run line offers slightly better odds, the safer bet here is the Phillies' moneyline. The Phillies have the advantage in pitching, home field, and recent form. Despite the lower return, the moneyline bet on the Phillies is the most reliable choice given the matchup dynamics.

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Kansas City Royals (79-65) vs. New York Yankees (82-61)

Location: New York; Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Royals: Brady Singer (9-10, 3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 150 strikeouts)

• Yankees: Carlos Rodon (14-9, 4.19 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 172 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Yankees -182, Royals +152

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over +105, Under -125)

• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+115), Royals +1.5 (-135)

Game Breakdown:

The New York Yankees have been strong at home, with a 37-31 record in Yankee Stadium. They have an 82-61 overall record and excel when their offense is clicking, evidenced by their 63-21 record when they get at least eight hits. Carlos Rodon, who has been a bit inconsistent this season with a 4.19 ERA, will be on the mound. However, he's still capable of delivering strong outings and will look to take advantage of the Royals' struggling offense.

The Kansas City Royals are coming off a four-game win streak but have struggled on the road with a 34-35 record. Brady Singer, with a respectable 3.35 ERA, will try to keep the Yankees' powerful lineup in check. However, the Royals' offense has been cold lately, batting just .187 over their last 10 games.

Best Bet:

• Under 8.5 (-125)

Given the recent struggles of both offenses, particularly Kansas City's, and the solid pitching matchup, the best bet here is the under on 8.5 runs. Both starting pitchers have the ability to keep the game low-scoring, and the Royals' recent hitting woes suggest this could be a tight, low-scoring affair.

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