Best Bets - 9/6/2024

Good Morning,

What a day yesterday! First, let’s talk about the NFL game. We went 4-0 on our 1 unit prop bets. We ended up pushing the under as we had 47 which is what the total ended up being. No harm there. We were on the wrong side of the Ravens +3 bet but all in all a great first night of betting on the NFL. We will do it again tonight for the Eagles and Packers. That will be coming in a separate email. You’re going to want to be subscribed to the premium version for that!

And let’s not forget baseball… We went 6-3 yesterday with our baseball bets and we were a walk off grand slam away from 7-2. All in all, it was a really good day of betting and adding units!

Before we get into today’s bets, be sure to thank our sponsor who made this letter available to everyone.

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Matchup Preview: New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs

Date/Time: Friday, 2:20 p.m. EDT
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois

Team Records:

  • New York Yankees: 80-60, 2nd in AL East

  • Chicago Cubs: 72-68, 2nd in NL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Yankees: Luis Gil (12-6, 3.39 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 144 strikeouts)

  • Cubs: Jordan Wicks (2-2, 3.82 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 32 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Yankees -143, Cubs +122

  • Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+125), Cubs +1.5 (-150)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (+110), Under 7.5 (-130)

Game Overview:

The Chicago Cubs will host the New York Yankees in the first of a three-game series at Wrigley Field. This matchup features two teams both vying for playoff spots, with the Yankees looking to continue their power-hitting dominance and the Cubs aiming to leverage their solid home record.

New York Yankees Overview:

The Yankees enter the game with an 80-60 overall record and a strong 43-29 record on the road. Luis Gil will take the mound for New York, bringing with him a solid 3.39 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 144 strikeouts. The Yankees' offense leads the majors with 213 home runs, averaging 1.5 per game, making them a formidable challenge for any opposing pitcher.

Key Performers:

  • Aaron Judge: 32 doubles, 51 home runs, 124 RBI

  • Giancarlo Stanton: 8-for-36 with three doubles, three home runs over the last 10 games

Chicago Cubs Overview:

The Cubs have a 72-68 record and are 37-31 at home. Jordan Wicks will start with a 3.82 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The Cubs have shown resilience, ranking 10th in the NL with 149 home runs, averaging 1.1 per game. Their offense has been hot recently, with a .304 batting average over the last 10 games.

Key Performers:

  • Seiya Suzuki: .277 batting average, 23 doubles, six triples, 19 home runs

  • Ian Happ: 18-for-43 with 10 RBI over the last 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Cubs: 7-3, .304 batting average, 4.96 ERA, outscored opponents by 34 runs

  • Yankees: 4-6, .281 batting average, 5.54 ERA, outscored by three runs

Best Bet: Over 7.5 (+110)

Rationale: Both teams have potent offenses and have been hitting well recently, especially the Cubs, who have averaged over .300 in their last 10 games. Despite the solid pitching, the Yankees' power-hitting ability combined with the Cubs' recent form suggests that the over 7.5 could be a solid play.

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Matchup Preview: Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Date/Time: Friday, 6:10 p.m. EDT
Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Team Records:

  • Colorado Rockies: 52-89, 5th in NL West

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 81-59, 1st in NL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Rockies: Ryan Feltner (1-10, 5.11 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 115 strikeouts)

  • Brewers: Frankie Montas (6-9, 4.70 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 110 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -229, Rockies +188

  • Run Line: Rockies +1.5 (-115), Brewers -1.5 (-105)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (-115), Under 7.5 (-105)

Game Overview:

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to open a three-game series at home against the Colorado Rockies. The Brewers, leading the NL Central, boast a strong home record and one of the best pitching staffs in the league. In contrast, the Rockies have struggled both overall and particularly on the road, with a dismal 20-52 record away from Coors Field.

Milwaukee Brewers Overview:

The Brewers have been solid at home, with a 41-27 record, and their pitching staff has been a standout, holding a collective ERA of 3.60, the second-best in the NL. Frankie Montas will take the mound, looking to improve his 6-9 record and lower his 4.70 ERA. Milwaukee's pitching will be key in maintaining their edge in this series.

Key Performers:

  • William Contreras: 34 doubles, 20 home runs, 80 RBI, .278 batting average

  • Jackson Chourio: 13-for-40 with five doubles and four home runs over the last 10 games

Colorado Rockies Overview:

The Rockies have endured a tough season, particularly on the road. Ryan Feltner will start for Colorado, carrying a 1-10 record and a 5.11 ERA. Despite their struggles, the Rockies have managed to stay competitive when outhitting their opponents, though such games have been rare.

Key Performers:

  • Ryan McMahon: 25 doubles, 17 home runs

  • Brendan Rodgers: 10-for-40 with three home runs over the last 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Brewers: 6-4 in their last 10 games, with a .229 batting average and a stellar 2.43 ERA, outscoring opponents by 24 runs.

  • Rockies: 4-6 in their last 10 games, with a .248 batting average and a 4.70 ERA, being outscored by seven runs.

Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 (-105)

Rationale: Given the Brewers' strong home record, superior pitching, and the Rockies' poor road performance, Milwaukee covering the 1.5-run spread seems likely. The Rockies have struggled to compete consistently on the road, and the Brewers' pitchers are likely to keep Colorado's offense in check.

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Matchup Preview: Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Date/Time: Friday, 6:40 p.m. EDT
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Team Records:

  • Washington Nationals: 62-78, 4th in NL East

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 66-74, 5th in NL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Nationals: DJ Herz (2-7, 4.09 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 88 strikeouts)

  • Pirates: Luis Ortiz (6-4, 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 88 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Pirates -129, Nationals +109

  • Run Line: Nationals -1.5 (+165), Pirates +1.5 (-200)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (-115), Under 8.5 (-105)

Game Overview:

The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to build on their series-opening win as they host the Washington Nationals for the second game of the series. Pittsburgh holds a 3-1 advantage in the season series and will aim to maintain their edge with Luis Ortiz on the mound. The Nationals, coming off a loss, will send DJ Herz to the hill in hopes of bouncing back.

Pittsburgh Pirates Overview:

The Pirates have been inconsistent this season, particularly at home where they have a 33-36 record. However, they have a solid record when their offense clicks, going 42-17 in games where they score five or more runs. Luis Ortiz has been a reliable arm for the Pirates, sporting a 3.19 ERA and 88 strikeouts, which gives them a good chance to take another win.

Key Performers:

  • Bryan Reynolds: 22 home runs, .457 slugging percentage

  • Yasmani Grandal: 9-for-24 with two home runs and four RBI over the last 10 games

Washington Nationals Overview:

The Nationals have struggled on the road with a 30-41 record and are looking to even the series in Pittsburgh. DJ Herz will start, carrying a 4.09 ERA and 88 strikeouts. The Nationals have been successful when their bats get going, with a 48-30 record in games where they record at least eight hits.

Key Performers:

  • Jacob Young: 23 doubles, a triple, three home runs, 33 RBI

  • Andres Chaparro: 6-for-36 with two doubles and three home runs over the past 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Pirates: 4-6 in their last 10 games, with a .249 batting average and a concerning 7.14 ERA, being outscored by 22 runs.

  • Nationals: 4-6 in their last 10 games, with a .237 batting average and a 4.75 ERA, being outscored by 12 runs.

Best Bet: Pirates -129 (Moneyline)

Rationale: The Pirates have a slight edge with Ortiz on the mound and their success in high-scoring games. With the Nationals struggling on the road and their inconsistent offense, Pittsburgh is a solid pick to continue their success in this series.

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Matchup Preview: Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Friday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts

Team Records:
Chicago White Sox: 32-109, 5th in AL Central
Boston Red Sox: 70-70, 3rd in AL East

Pitching Probables:
White Sox: Davis Martin (0-3, 3.62 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 32 strikeouts)
Red Sox: Nick Pivetta (5-10, 4.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 141 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:
Moneyline: Red Sox -272, White Sox +223
Run Line: White Sox +1.5 (+115), Red Sox -1.5 (-135)
Total: Over 8.5 (-115), Under 8.5 (-105)

Game Overview:
The Boston Red Sox will begin a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox, looking to rebound from a rough stretch. Boston, despite a solid overall record, has struggled at home. The White Sox, having a dismal season, are looking to find some momentum as they face off against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Overview:
Boston has had a challenging home record this season (31-38), but their offense remains potent, ranking 7th in the majors for on-base percentage. Nick Pivetta has struggled with consistency but is expected to offer a strong performance against a weak White Sox lineup. The Red Sox are looking to build on their offensive strength, with Rafael Devers leading the charge with 28 home runs.

Key Performers:

  • Rafael Devers: 28 home runs, .544 slugging percentage

  • Jarren Duran: 14-for-39 with three home runs and seven RBI over the last 10 games

Chicago White Sox Overview:
The White Sox have had an abysmal season, with a 14-55 record on the road and struggling significantly in games where they allow home runs. Davis Martin, despite a decent ERA, has been ineffective in getting wins. Their recent form shows a significant struggle both offensively and defensively.

Key Performers:

  • Gavin Sheets: Leads with a .244 batting average, 24 doubles, eight home runs, and 41 RBI

  • Lenyn Sosa: 11-for-40 with three RBI over the last 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Red Sox: 3-7 in their last 10 games, .207 batting average, 3.87 ERA, outscored by 15 runs

  • White Sox: 1-9 in their last 10 games, .216 batting average, 4.60 ERA, outscored by 27 runs

Best Bet: Red Sox -1.5 (-135)
Rationale: Given the White Sox's poor performance both on the road and overall this season, combined with their struggles against home runs, the Red Sox are well-positioned to cover the -1.5 run line. Nick Pivetta should be able to handle a weak White Sox lineup, and Boston's offense has the potential to exploit the White Sox's pitching struggles.

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Matchup Preview: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Friday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami, Florida

Team Records:
Philadelphia Phillies: 84-56, 1st in NL East
Miami Marlins: 52-88, 5th in NL East

Pitching Probables:
Phillies: Zack Wheeler (13-6, 2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 183 strikeouts)
Marlins: Edward Cabrera (3-6, 5.33 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 84 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:
Moneyline: Phillies -231, Marlins +190
Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (-130), Marlins +1.5 (+110)
Total: Over 7.5 (-115), Under 7.5 (-105)

Game Overview:
The Philadelphia Phillies are on a roll with a five-game road win streak as they take on the Miami Marlins. Philadelphia has been strong both offensively and defensively, while the Marlins continue to struggle, especially at home. The Phillies have had the upper hand in their season series with Miami and look to extend their dominance.

Philadelphia Phillies Overview:
The Phillies have been impressive this season, with a solid 84-56 record and a strong road performance (37-31). Zack Wheeler has been outstanding with a 2.63 ERA, providing a significant edge on the mound. Philadelphia's pitching staff ranks third in the NL with a 3.68 ERA, and their lineup, including top performers like Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, has been effective in scoring runs.

Key Performers:

  • Kyle Schwarber: 51 extra base hits, including 19 doubles and 32 home runs

  • J.T. Realmuto: 12-for-39 with two doubles, four home runs, and nine RBI over the past 10 games

Miami Marlins Overview:
The Marlins have had a disappointing season, struggling both at home and overall. Edward Cabrera's ERA of 5.33 and high WHIP of 1.47 indicate vulnerabilities that the Phillies' potent lineup can exploit. Despite having a few bright spots like Jake Burger, Miami’s overall performance has been inconsistent.

Key Performers:

  • Jake Burger: Leads with 25 home runs, .461 slugging percentage

  • Derek Hill: 8-for-42 with three home runs and six RBI over the last 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Marlins: 5-5 in their last 10 games, .259 batting average, 4.91 ERA, outscored by seven runs

  • Phillies: 8-2 in their last 10 games, .244 batting average, 3.39 ERA, outscored opponents by two runs

Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (-130)
Rationale: The Phillies have been dominant in recent games, and Zack Wheeler's strong performance on the mound gives them a significant advantage. With Miami's struggles and Cabrera's high ERA, Philadelphia should be able to cover the -1.5 run line. The Marlins’ inconsistent play and Philadelphia’s solid form make the Phillies a strong pick to win by at least two runs.

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Matchup Preview: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Friday, 7:20 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia

Team Records:
Toronto Blue Jays: 67-74, 5th in AL East
Atlanta Braves: 76-64, 2nd in NL East

Pitching Probables:
Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman (12-10, 4.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 145 strikeouts)
Braves: Max Fried (8-8, 3.52 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 130 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:
Moneyline: Braves -179, Blue Jays +149
Run Line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-145), Braves -1.5 (+120)
Total: Over 7.5 (-115), Under 7.5 (-105)

Game Overview:
The Atlanta Braves will start a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays, looking to strengthen their position in the NL East. The Braves have been solid at home and are well-positioned to build on their strong performance. Toronto, while struggling overall, has had some success when they hit well.

Atlanta Braves Overview:
The Braves have been strong at home (38-29) and have a solid record overall. Max Fried, despite an 8-8 record, has a respectable 3.52 ERA and is a key contributor to their pitching staff. The Braves' defense has been particularly effective when they avoid giving up home runs, and their offense, led by Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson, has been productive.

Key Performers:

  • Marcell Ozuna: 37 home runs, 61 walks, .307 batting average, 98 RBI

  • Matt Olson: 12-for-40 with six doubles, three home runs, and 12 RBI over the last 10 games

Toronto Blue Jays Overview:
Toronto has struggled on the road (33-39) and is currently in a tough spot in the AL East. Kevin Gausman has had a decent season with a 4.07 ERA, but he will need to be at his best against a potent Braves lineup. The Blue Jays have been successful when their offense is clicking, particularly when they record eight or more hits.

Key Performers:

  • Daulton Varsho: 21 doubles, seven triples, 18 home runs

  • Addison Barger: 11-for-35 with three doubles and three home runs over the last 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Braves: 6-4 in their last 10 games, .229 batting average, 2.59 ERA, outscored opponents by 14 runs

  • Blue Jays: 4-6 in their last 10 games, .256 batting average, 3.03 ERA, outscored opponents by 12 runs

Best Bet: Braves -1.5 (+120)
Rationale: The Braves have been effective at home and Max Fried is a solid pitcher against a Blue Jays lineup that can be inconsistent. With the Braves' strong performance when avoiding home runs and their solid recent form, they are likely to cover the -1.5 run line. The combination of Fried’s pitching and Atlanta's offensive depth makes them a strong pick to win by more than one run.

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Matchup Preview: Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Friday, 9:40 p.m. EDT
Location: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, California

Team Records:
Detroit Tigers: 71-70, 4th in AL Central
Oakland Athletics: 61-80, 4th in AL West

Pitching Probables:
Tigers: Tarik Skubal (16-4, 2.51 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 201 strikeouts)
Athletics: Mitch Spence (7-9, 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 105 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:
Moneyline: Tigers -174, Athletics +145
Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (+110), Athletics +1.5 (-130)
Total: Over 7.5 (+120), Under 7.5 (-145)

Game Overview:
The Detroit Tigers start a three-game series against the Oakland Athletics, looking to build on their solid performance. The Tigers have been strong on the road and are led by the impressive pitching of Tarik Skubal. The Athletics, while having a decent home record, have struggled defensively, especially when allowing home runs.

Detroit Tigers Overview:
Detroit has been consistent on the road (36-36) and has a strong record when their pitching staff performs well. Tarik Skubal has been a standout this season with a 2.51 ERA and 201 strikeouts, making him a key asset for the Tigers. Their success is also linked to not giving up home runs, with a 34-17 record in such games.

Key Performers:

  • Riley Greene: 24 doubles, five triples, 20 home runs, .255 batting average

  • Spencer Torkelson: 9-for-35 with a double and three home runs over the last 10 games

Oakland Athletics Overview:
Oakland has a mixed record at home (35-37) and overall. Mitch Spence has struggled with a 4.50 ERA, which could be a disadvantage against a solid Tigers lineup. The Athletics have been poor in games where they give up home runs, with a 32-57 record in such scenarios.

Key Performers:

  • Brent Rooker: 61 extra base hits, including 24 doubles and 35 home runs

  • Lawrence Butler: 18-for-43 with five doubles, seven home runs, and 11 RBI over the past 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Athletics: 5-5 in their last 10 games, .269 batting average, 5.81 ERA, outscored by six runs

  • Tigers: 6-4 in their last 10 games, .219 batting average, 2.39 ERA, outscored opponents by four runs

Best Bet: Tigers -1.5 (+110)
Rationale: With Tarik Skubal's exceptional form on the mound and the Athletics' struggles with home runs, the Tigers are well-positioned to cover the -1.5 run line. Detroit's solid pitching and recent strong play make them a strong candidate to win by at least two runs against a vulnerable Athletics team.