Best Bets - 9/5/2024

September 05, 2024

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Good Morning!

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To the games!

Matchup Preview: Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds

Date/Time: Thursday, 1:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio

Team Records:

  • Houston Astros: 75-64, 1st in AL West

  • Cincinnati Reds: 67-73, 4th in NL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Astros: Hunter Brown (11-7, 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 155 strikeouts)

  • Reds: Rhett Lowder (0-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 6 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Astros -154, Reds +130

  • Run Line: Astros -1.5 (+110), Reds +1.5 (-130)

  • Total: Over 9.5 (+100), Under 9.5 (-120)

Game Overview:

The Cincinnati Reds are looking to extend their three-game home winning streak as they face off against the Houston Astros in the series finale. The Astros, who lead the AL West, are coming off a solid stretch and aim to finish their road trip on a high note.

Astros Overview:

The Astros have been strong on the road with a record of 36-35. Hunter Brown will be on the mound, bringing an 11-7 record with a solid 3.55 ERA. Houston’s pitching staff ranks sixth in MLB with a 3.76 team ERA. Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez have been key contributors offensively, with Alvarez being particularly hot over the past 10 games.

Key Performers:

  • Alex Bregman: 27 doubles, 2 triples, 21 home runs

  • Yordan Alvarez: 14-for-39 with a double and five home runs over the past 10 games

Reds Overview:

The Reds have been inconsistent this season, with a 35-39 record at home. Rhett Lowder will make his second start of the season after a promising debut, though he’s still seeking his first win. Cincinnati has struggled in close games, posting a 12-26 record in one-run games, which could be a concern in this matchup.

Key Performers:

  • Tyler Stephenson: .266 batting average, 23 doubles, 18 home runs, 58 RBI

  • Ty France: 14-for-35 with five RBI over the last 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Reds: 4-6 in their last 10 games, with a .271 batting average and a 5.57 ERA, outscored by 10 runs

  • Astros: 6-4 in their last 10 games, with a .261 batting average and a 3.10 ERA, outscored opponents by 10 runs

Best Bet: Astros -1.5 (+110)

Rationale: The Astros have the edge in both pitching and overall team performance. Hunter Brown has been reliable, and the Astros’ offense has been more consistent. With the Reds' struggles in one-run games and Houston’s ability to win on the road, the Astros covering the run line at +110 presents good value.

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Matchup Preview: Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Date/Time: Thursday, 1:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida

Team Records:

  • Minnesota Twins: 75-64, 2nd in AL Central

  • Tampa Bay Rays: 69-70, 4th in AL East

Pitching Probables:

  • Twins: Pablo Lopez (13-8, 4.05 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 164 strikeouts)

  • Rays: Taj Bradley (6-9, 4.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 121 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Twins -140, Rays +118

  • Run Line: Twins -1.5 (+125), Rays +1.5 (-150)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (+110), Under 7.5 (-130)

Game Overview:

The Tampa Bay Rays hold a 2-1 series lead over the Minnesota Twins as they head into the final game of the series. Both teams are looking to finish strong, with the Rays aiming to pull back to .500 and the Twins trying to maintain their position in the AL Central race.

Twins Overview:

The Twins have been solid on the road with a 36-34 record and are 75-64 overall. Pablo Lopez, who has been effective with a 13-8 record and a 4.05 ERA, will start for the Twins. Minnesota’s offense, which has the second-best on-base percentage in the AL at .321, will be key in this matchup. Despite recent struggles, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach have been performing well.

Key Performers:

  • Ryan Jeffers: 20 doubles, 20 home runs, 40 extra base hits

  • Trevor Larnach: 8-for-28 with two doubles, three home runs, 10 RBI over the past 10 games

Rays Overview:

The Rays have been inconsistent this season, holding a 37-37 record at home and a 69-70 record overall. Taj Bradley will take the mound for Tampa Bay, aiming to improve on his 6-9 record and 4.35 ERA. The Rays have been effective when they can score, holding a 41-8 record in games where they score at least five runs. However, they’ll need to find more consistency in their offense, as highlighted by recent performances from Christopher Morel and Josh Lowe.

Key Performers:

  • Christopher Morel: 9 doubles, 21 home runs, 56 RBI

  • Josh Lowe: 13-for-36 with two doubles, a triple, two home runs over the past 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Rays: 4-6 in their last 10 games, .221 batting average, 4.34 ERA, outscored by six runs

  • Twins: 3-7 in their last 10 games, .231 batting average, 5.66 ERA, outscored by 28 runs

Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-130)

Rationale: Both teams have been struggling offensively in recent games, and with two capable pitchers on the mound, this game could be a low-scoring affair. The under 7.5 line at -130 presents a solid betting option given the current form of both teams.

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Matchup Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics

Date/Time: Thursday, 3:37 p.m. EDT
Location: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, California

Team Records:

  • Seattle Mariners: 70-70, 2nd in AL West

  • Oakland Athletics: 61-79, 4th in AL West

Pitching Probables:

  • Mariners: Bryan Woo (6-2, 2.30 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 71 strikeouts)

  • Athletics: Joey Estes (6-6, 4.29 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 83 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Mariners -145, Athletics +121

  • Run Line: Mariners -1.5 (+120), Athletics +1.5 (-145)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110)

Game Overview:

The Oakland Athletics host the Seattle Mariners for the final game of their series, with the A's currently leading 2-1. Seattle will look to even the series, while Oakland aims to secure a series victory.

Mariners Overview:

The Mariners have struggled on the road with a 29-42 record, though they stand at an even 70-70 overall. Bryan Woo has been a standout in their rotation, boasting a 6-2 record, a stellar 2.30 ERA, and an impressive 0.81 WHIP. Seattle has been strong when their offense clicks, holding a remarkable 45-4 record in games where they score at least five runs.

Key Performers:

  • Justin Turner: 18 doubles, 9 home runs, 45 RBI

  • Randy Arozarena: 11-for-36 with two doubles, two home runs over the last 10 games

Athletics Overview:

Oakland has played slightly better at home with a 35-36 record, but they have an overall record of 61-79. Joey Estes, who has been a steady presence in the rotation, will start for the A's. Despite their struggles this season, the Athletics have shown some offensive firepower, ranking seventh in the AL with a .400 team slugging percentage.

Key Performers:

  • Brent Rooker: 33 home runs, .576 slugging percentage

  • Lawrence Butler: 18-for-43 with seven home runs and 11 RBI over the past 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Athletics: 6-4 in their last 10 games, hitting .262 with a 5.50 ERA, though they’ve been outscored by three runs

  • Mariners: 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a .241 batting average and an impressive 3.34 ERA, outscoring opponents by 21 runs

Best Bet: Mariners -1.5 (+120)

Rationale: Bryan Woo has been excellent on the mound, and the Mariners have a solid track record when their offense clicks. Given Oakland’s inconsistency, especially on the mound, backing Seattle to win by more than a run offers good value at +120.

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Matchup Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants

Date/Time: Thursday, 3:45 p.m. EDT
Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California

Team Records:

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: 79-61, 3rd in NL West

  • San Francisco Giants: 68-72, 4th in NL West

Pitching Probables:

  • Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (4-0, 4.30 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 33 strikeouts)

  • Giants: Blake Snell (2-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 114 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Diamondbacks -132, Giants +112

  • Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-165), Giants -1.5 (+140)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (+110), Under 7.5 (-130)

Game Overview:

The San Francisco Giants are looking to snap a four-game losing streak as they face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are aiming to strengthen their postseason positioning. The Diamondbacks lead the season series 6-3, showcasing their dominance over the Giants so far.

Diamondbacks Overview:

Arizona has been strong on the road with a 40-30 record and sits comfortably with a 79-61 record overall. Merrill Kelly, who is undefeated at 4-0 this season, will take the mound. Despite his solid win-loss record, Kelly’s 4.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP indicate some vulnerability, particularly against a Giants lineup that is capable of heating up.

Key Performers:

  • Corbin Carroll: 19 doubles, 12 triples, 19 home runs, 66 RBI

  • Eugenio Suarez: 13-for-36 with two doubles, five home runs, and 11 RBI over the last 10 games

Giants Overview:

San Francisco has had a decent home record at 39-32 but has struggled overall, particularly in recent games. Blake Snell, who has been inconsistent this season, will need to be sharp to help the Giants end their losing streak. The Giants have a solid 49-26 record when they record eight or more hits, so getting to Kelly early will be crucial.

Key Performers:

  • Matt Chapman: 33 doubles, a triple, 22 home runs

  • Tyler Fitzgerald: 11-for-39 with two doubles over the past 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Giants: 3-7 in their last 10 games, with a .201 batting average and a 4.97 ERA, being outscored by 11 runs

  • Diamondbacks: 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a strong .287 batting average but a high 6.00 ERA, managing to outscore opponents by five runs

Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-130)

Rationale: Both teams have been inconsistent offensively, and with Blake Snell's ability to shut down opponents when he's on his game, the under 7.5 runs looks like a strong play, especially considering the lower-scoring nature of Oracle Park.

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Matchup Preview: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

Date/Time: Thursday, 6:40 p.m. EDT
Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami, Florida

Team Records:

  • Philadelphia Phillies: 83-56, 1st in NL East

  • Miami Marlins: 52-87, 5th in NL East

Pitching Probables:

  • Phillies: Ranger Suárez (11-6, 3.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 128 strikeouts)

  • Marlins: Adam Oller (1-1, 3.31 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 16 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Phillies -230, Marlins +189

  • Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (-135), Marlins +1.5 (+115)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (-130), Under 7.5 (+110)

Game Overview:

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game riding a four-game win streak and looking to continue their dominance as they visit the struggling Miami Marlins. With a 5-4 advantage in the season series, the Phillies will aim to extend their lead in the NL East.

Philadelphia Phillies Overview:

The Phillies have been strong on the road with a 36-31 record and an impressive overall record of 83-56. Ranger Suárez, who has been reliable this season with an 11-6 record and a 3.02 ERA, will take the mound. The Phillies’ powerful lineup has been key to their success, particularly in games where they hit multiple home runs, boasting a 37-7 record in such scenarios.

Key Performers:

  • Kyle Schwarber: 18 doubles, 32 home runs

  • J.T. Realmuto: 13-for-40 with three doubles and four home runs over the last 10 games

Miami Marlins Overview:

The Marlins have struggled mightily this season, especially at home with a 26-45 record. Despite their challenges, they’ve shown some fight recently, going 6-4 in their last 10 games. Adam Oller, who has had limited appearances, will need to be at his best against a potent Phillies lineup.

Key Performers:

  • Jake Burger: 18 doubles, 25 home runs, 60 RBI

  • Connor Norby: 13-for-40 with three home runs and five RBI over the last 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Marlins: 6-4, .271 batting average, 4.60 ERA, outscored opponents by one run

  • Phillies: 8-2, .265 batting average, 3.58 ERA, outscored opponents by seven runs

Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (-135)

Rationale: The Phillies are in great form, with a strong offense and solid pitching from Suárez. Given the Marlins' struggles at home and their position at the bottom of the NL East, the Phillies covering the run line seems like a solid bet.

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Matchup Preview: Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Date/Time: Thursday, 6:40 p.m. EDT
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Team Records:

  • Washington Nationals: 62-77, 4th in NL East

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 65-74, 5th in NL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Nationals: Jake Irvin (9-11, 4.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 136 strikeouts)

  • Pirates: Bailey Falter (6-7, 4.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 81 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Pirates -122, Nationals +102

  • Run Line: Nationals +1.5 (-200), Pirates -1.5 (+165)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (-105), Under 8.5 (-115)

Game Overview:

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the Washington Nationals in the first game of a four-game series. Both teams have struggled this season and are looking to finish the season strong.

Pittsburgh Pirates Overview:

The Pirates come into this game with a 65-74 overall record and have struggled at home, posting a 32-36 record at PNC Park. Despite their issues, they have managed to maintain a respectable team ERA of 4.16, ranking eighth in the NL. Bailey Falter will take the mound, aiming to improve on his 4.41 ERA.

Key Performers:

  • Bryan Reynolds: 24 doubles, three triples, 22 home runs, 77 RBI

  • Yasmani Grandal: 8-for-22 with a double, two home runs, and three RBI over the past 10 games

Washington Nationals Overview:

The Nationals have struggled both on the road and overall, with a 30-40 road record and a 62-77 overall record. They have been particularly vulnerable when allowing home runs, with a 33-55 record in such games. Jake Irvin, who has had a decent season with a 4.08 ERA, will start for the Nationals.

Key Performers:

  • C.J. Abrams: Leads the team with 18 home runs and a .423 slugging percentage

  • Jacob Young: 13-for-33 with four doubles, a home run, and five RBI over the past 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Pirates: 4-6, .252 batting average, 6.93 ERA, outscored by 26 runs

  • Nationals: 4-6, .237 batting average, 4.24 ERA, outscored by nine runs

Best Bet: Pirates Moneyline (-122)

Rationale: The Pirates have the edge at home with Bailey Falter on the mound. While neither team has been particularly strong lately, Pittsburgh's slight edge in pitching and home-field advantage makes them the favored pick in this matchup.

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Matchup Preview: Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves

Date/Time: Thursday, 7:20 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia

Team Records:

  • Colorado Rockies: 51-89, 5th in NL West

  • Atlanta Braves: 76-63, 2nd in NL East

Pitching Probables:

  • Rockies: Austin Gomber (4-10, 4.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 102 strikeouts)

  • Braves: Reynaldo Lopez (8-4, 2.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 125 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Braves -283, Rockies +229

  • Run Line: Braves -1.5 (-125), Rockies +1.5 (+105)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (+100), Under 8.5 (-120)

Game Overview:

The Atlanta Braves will host the Colorado Rockies, aiming to extend their lead in the NL East. The Braves are in strong form and are looking to continue their success against a struggling Rockies team.

Atlanta Braves Overview:

The Braves come into this game with a solid 76-63 overall record and a strong 38-28 home record. They have been impressive at the plate with a .412 slugging percentage, ranking sixth in the NL. Reynaldo Lopez will start for the Braves, boasting a remarkable 2.00 ERA and a strong WHIP of 1.17.

Key Performers:

  • Marcell Ozuna: 37 home runs, 61 walks, 98 RBI, .305 batting average

  • Matt Olson: 13-for-40 with six doubles, four home runs, and 13 RBI over the past 10 games

Colorado Rockies Overview:

The Rockies have struggled all season with a 51-89 record, including a poor 19-52 record on the road. Their pitching has been a significant issue, with a team ERA of 5.69 over the last 10 games. Austin Gomber, who has a 4.69 ERA, will start for the Rockies.

Key Performers:

  • Brenton Doyle: Leads the team with 22 home runs and a .472 slugging percentage

  • Ryan McMahon: 11-for-41 with a double, a home run, and four RBI over the past 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Braves: 6-4, .226 batting average, 2.79 ERA, outscored opponents by 12 runs

  • Rockies: 3-7, .247 batting average, 5.69 ERA, outscored by 16 runs

Best Bet: Braves -1.5 (-125)

Rationale: With Reynaldo Lopez on the mound and the Rockies struggling on the road, the Braves are well-positioned to cover the run line. The Braves have been dominant at home and have the pitching advantage to secure a comfortable win.

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Matchup Preview: Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers

Date/Time: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Location: Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas

Team Records:

  • Los Angeles Angels: 58-81, 5th in AL West

  • Texas Rangers: 67-73, 3rd in AL West

Pitching Probables:

  • Angels: Jack Kochanowicz (2-3, 4.96 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 12 strikeouts)

  • Rangers: Cody Bradford (4-2, 3.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 52 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Rangers -164, Angels +138

  • Run Line: Rangers -1.5 (+120), Angels +1.5 (-145)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (+100), Under 8.5 (-120)

Game Overview:

The Texas Rangers will host the Los Angeles Angels in the opening game of a four-game series. With both teams in the middle of the AL West standings, this matchup is crucial for their respective postseason hopes.

Texas Rangers Overview:

The Rangers are 67-73 overall and have a strong 38-33 record at home. Cody Bradford will take the mound for the Rangers with a solid 3.21 ERA and an impressive 0.89 WHIP. Texas has struggled offensively with a .239 team batting average, but they are coming off a strong stretch, going 7-3 in their last 10 games.

Key Performers:

  • Marcus Semien: 25 doubles, two triples, 18 home runs, .234 batting average

  • Wyatt Langford: 12-for-37 with three doubles and three home runs over the last 10 games

Los Angeles Angels Overview:

The Angels have struggled with a 58-81 record and a 28-39 record on the road. Jack Kochanowicz will start for the Angels, carrying a 4.96 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The Angels have struggled offensively, with a .179 batting average over the last 10 games. They are also dealing with injuries and inconsistencies throughout their lineup.

Key Performers:

  • Zachary Neto: .253 batting average, 28 doubles, a triple, and 20 home runs

  • Taylor Ward: 13-for-38 with five home runs and seven RBI over the last 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Rangers: 7-3, .251 batting average, 3.80 ERA, outscored opponents by one run

  • Angels: 4-6, .179 batting average, 3.72 ERA, outscored by seven runs

Best Bet: Rangers -1.5 (+120)

Rationale: With Cody Bradford on the mound and the Angels struggling offensively, the Rangers are well-positioned to win by more than a run. Texas has been strong at home, and their pitching edge over the struggling Angels should help them secure a comfortable victory.

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Matchup Preview: Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres

Date/Time: Thursday, 8:40 p.m. EDT
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, California

Team Records:

  • Detroit Tigers: 70-70, 4th in AL Central

  • San Diego Padres: 80-61, 2nd in NL West

Pitching Probables:

  • Tigers: Casey Mize (2-6, 4.25 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 62 strikeouts)

  • Padres: Martin Perez (4-5, 4.71 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 91 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Padres -156, Tigers +132

  • Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+130), Tigers +1.5 (-155)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (-110), Under 8.5 (-110)

Game Overview:

The San Diego Padres will look to extend their three-game home win streak against the Detroit Tigers. With both teams having had solid recent performances, this game will be crucial for both sides as they push towards the postseason.

San Diego Padres Overview:

The Padres are 80-61 overall and 39-32 at home. Martin Perez will be on the mound with a 4.71 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. San Diego's pitching staff has been solid this season, ranking 6th in the NL with a 3.99 ERA. They have shown strong offensive capabilities and are aiming to build on their recent success.

Key Performers:

  • Jurickson Profar: 24 doubles, 21 home runs, 81 RBI

  • Jackson Merrill: 14-for-38 with two doubles, four home runs, and 11 RBI over the last 10 games

Detroit Tigers Overview:

The Tigers are 70-70 overall and 35-36 on the road. Casey Mize will start with a 4.25 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Detroit has been strong defensively, with the 5th-best team ERA in the majors at 3.75. The Tigers have been consistent in their recent performances and will look to leverage their pitching strength in this matchup.

Key Performers:

  • Riley Greene: 24 doubles, five triples, 20 home runs, .256 batting average

  • Spencer Torkelson: 9-for-35 with a double and three home runs over the last 10 games

Recent Form:

  • Padres: 7-3, .251 batting average, 4.18 ERA, outscored opponents by eight runs

  • Tigers: 6-4, .234 batting average, 2.49 ERA, outscored opponents by eight runs

Best Bet: Padres -1.5 (+130)

Rationale: With the Padres having a strong home record and solid pitching performance from Martin Perez, they are well-positioned to win by more than a run. Detroit’s recent success is commendable, but the Padres' recent form and home advantage make them the favorites for this game.