Best Bets - 9/3/2023

September 03, 2024

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Good Morning,

Hope everyone had a great Labor Day weekend. We are back at it today. A few notes as this is a jam packed week in sports:

  • 116 Sports Betting Show (my podcast) We will have 2 episodes on all major streaming platforms this week. We will be covering college and NFL football. Be sure to subsribe so that you get the new episodes as soon as they come out.

  • Baseball bets will continue as usual

  • We will have college football and NFL football bets this week. All subscribers will get some but premium subscribers will get all the bets

  • There will begin to be multiple emails a day for premium subscribers as we begin to give out football bets towards the weekend.

Be sure to check out our sponsors who have made today’s letter free to all. Thank them by visiting their page!

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Matchup Preview: Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles

Date/Time: Tuesday, 6:35 p.m. EDT
Location: Camden Yards, Baltimore

Team Records:

  • Chicago White Sox: 31-108, 5th in AL Central

  • Baltimore Orioles: 80-59, 2nd in AL East

Pitching Probables:

  • White Sox: Nick Nastrini (0-6, 7.04 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 22 strikeouts)

  • Orioles: Cade Povich (1-7, 6.58 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 37 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Orioles -316, White Sox +250

  • Run Line: Orioles -2.5 (+115), White Sox +2.5 (-135)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (-125), Under 8.5 (+105)

Game Overview:

The Baltimore Orioles, vying for the top spot in the AL East, host the struggling Chicago White Sox, who are on an 11-game losing streak. The White Sox have had a dismal season, particularly on the road, while the Orioles are strong contenders in their division.

White Sox Overview:

The White Sox are enduring a historically bad season with only 31 wins against 108 losses. Their road performance is particularly abysmal, with just 13 wins out of 67 games. They are currently on an 11-game losing streak and have struggled significantly, especially when they give up home runs.

Key Performers:

  • Andrew Vaughn: Has been one of the few bright spots for the White Sox, with 28 doubles and 15 home runs while batting .235.

  • Andrew Benintendi: In good form recently, going 9-for-31 with three doubles and two home runs over the last 10 games.

Orioles Overview:

The Orioles are having a strong season, particularly at home, with a 40-30 record. Their powerful offense leads MLB in slugging percentage, and they have dominated the White Sox this season, winning all five previous matchups.

Key Performers:

  • Anthony Santander: A key offensive contributor with 22 doubles, two triples, 39 home runs, and 89 RBI while hitting .240.

  • Colton Cowser: Showing recent promise, going 9-for-39 with two doubles and two home runs over the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Orioles: 6-4 in their last 10 games, with a .235 batting average and a solid 3.52 ERA, outscoring opponents by 11 runs.

  • White Sox: 0-10 in their last 10 games, struggling with a .217 batting average and a 6.07 ERA, outscored by 39 runs.

Best Bet: Orioles -2.5 (+115)

Rationale: The Orioles are heavy favorites against a White Sox team in free fall. Given the Orioles' dominant season and the White Sox's ongoing struggles, including an 11-game losing streak, the Orioles covering the -2.5 run line offers good value.

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Matchup Preview: Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Date/Time: Tuesday, 6:50 p.m. EDT
Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida

Team Records:

  • Minnesota Twins: 75-62, 2nd in AL Central

  • Tampa Bay Rays: 67-70, 4th in AL East

Pitching Probables:

  • Twins: David Festa (2-4, 4.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 51 strikeouts)

  • Rays: Jeffrey Springs (1-2, 3.67 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 33 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Rays -115, Twins -106

  • Run Line: Twins -1.5 (+165), Rays -1.5 (-200)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (-105), Under 7.5 (-115)

Game Overview:

The Minnesota Twins head into the second game of the series with a 1-0 lead over the Tampa Bay Rays. Both teams have had their ups and downs this season, with the Rays struggling slightly at home and the Twins showing solid performance on the road.

Rays Overview:

Tampa Bay has a 67-70 overall record and a 35-37 home record. The Rays have been effective when out-hitting their opponents, boasting a 46-8 record in such games. However, they have struggled in recent outings, losing seven of their last ten games with a 5.16 ERA, indicating some pitching vulnerabilities.

Key Performers:

  • Brandon Lowe: Leading the Rays with 19 doubles, two triples, 16 home runs, and 49 RBI.

  • Junior Caminero: In form recently, going 12-for-39 with three doubles, a triple, and three home runs over the last 10 games.

Twins Overview:

Minnesota is 75-62 overall and has been solid on the road with a 36-32 record. The Twins are strong in getting on base, with a .321 on-base percentage, ranking third in the AL. Despite their recent offensive struggles, they remain a competitive force in the AL Central.

Key Performers:

  • Ryan Jeffers: A key contributor with 40 extra-base hits, including 20 doubles and 20 home runs.

  • Trevor Larnach: Has been productive recently, going 11-for-32 with three doubles, three home runs, and 11 RBI over the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Rays: 3-7 in their last 10 games, with a .236 batting average and a 5.16 ERA, outscored by 15 runs.

  • Twins: 4-6 in their last 10 games, with a .226 batting average and a 5.04 ERA, outscored by 21 runs.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-115)

Rationale: Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive production recently, coupled with strong pitching matchups that could limit scoring. The under 7.5 run line offers a safe bet considering the current form of both teams.

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Matchup Preview: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets

Date/Time: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Citi Field, New York

Team Records:

  • Boston Red Sox: 70-68, 3rd in AL East

  • New York Mets: 74-64, 3rd in NL East

Pitching Probables:

  • Red Sox: Kutter Crawford (8-12, 4.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 141 strikeouts)

  • Mets: David Peterson (8-1, 2.83 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 70 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Mets -127, Red Sox +106

  • Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-200), Mets -1.5 (+165)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (+105), Under 8.5 (-125)

Game Overview:

The Boston Red Sox are looking to snap a three-game road losing streak as they face the New York Mets in the second game of their series. Both teams are striving to solidify their positions in their respective divisions as the season winds down.

Mets Overview:

New York has been solid at home with a 36-33 record. The Mets have shown resilience in close games, boasting a 24-15 record in one-run games. They enter this matchup with momentum, having won seven of their last ten games, largely due to strong pitching, which has posted a 2.89 ERA over that stretch.

Key Performers:

  • Pete Alonso: Leading the Mets with 30 home runs and a .467 slugging percentage.

  • Mark Vientos: Hitting 13-for-41 with a double, two home runs, and seven RBI over the last ten games.

Red Sox Overview:

Boston has been competitive on the road with a 39-30 record. However, they have struggled recently, particularly with the bat, hitting just .203 over their last ten games. Despite their struggles, the Red Sox remain dangerous when they out-hit their opponents, with a 54-9 record in such games.

Key Performers:

  • Ceddanne Rafaela: A consistent contributor with 20 doubles, five triples, and 14 home runs.

  • Jarren Duran: Hot at the plate, going 13-for-39 with four doubles and four home runs in the last ten games.

Recent Form:

  • Mets: 7-3 in their last 10 games, .231 batting average, 2.89 ERA, outscored opponents by 12 runs.

  • Red Sox: 3-7 in their last 10 games, .203 batting average, 3.27 ERA, outscored by 10 runs.

Best Bet: Mets -127

Rationale: With the Mets' strong recent form and Peterson's impressive 8-1 record and 2.83 ERA, they appear well-positioned to take advantage of a struggling Red Sox lineup. The Mets' ability to win close games also makes them a solid pick for this matchup.

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Matchup Preview: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Date/Time: Tuesday, 7:07 p.m. EDT
Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto

Team Records:

  • Philadelphia Phillies: 81-56, 1st in NL East

  • Toronto Blue Jays: 67-72, 5th in AL East

Pitching Probables:

  • Phillies: Tyler Phillips (4-1, 5.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 27 strikeouts)

  • Blue Jays: Chris Bassitt (9-13, 4.27 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 149 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Blue Jays -114, Phillies -105

  • Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-175)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (-120), Under 8.5 (+100)

Game Overview:

The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to extend their four-game home winning streak as they take on the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies. Both teams are coming into this game with solid recent performances, making this a highly anticipated matchup.

Blue Jays Overview:

Toronto has been strong at home, posting a 34-33 record at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays' offense has been reliable when producing hits, boasting a 51-23 record in games where they record eight or more hits. They are also riding a wave of momentum with a 6-4 record in their last ten games, thanks to a solid pitching staff that has posted a 1.99 ERA during this stretch.

Key Performers:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: A key offensive force for the Blue Jays, hitting .324 with 27 home runs and 89 RBI.

  • Daulton Varsho: Hitting 11-for-41 with two doubles and two home runs over the last ten games.

Phillies Overview:

Philadelphia is holding a strong position atop the NL East with an 81-56 record. They have been effective on the road, going 34-31 away from home. The Phillies' offense has been consistent, ranking third in the NL with a .257 team batting average. They enter this game having won seven of their last ten, with a balanced attack both at the plate and on the mound.

Key Performers:

  • Kyle Schwarber: Leading the Phillies with 28 home runs and a .449 slugging percentage.

  • Bryce Harper: Hitting .378 over his last ten games, with seven doubles and three RBI.

Recent Form:

  • Blue Jays: 6-4 in their last 10 games, .245 batting average, 1.99 ERA, outscored opponents by 23 runs.

  • Phillies: 7-3 in their last 10 games, .269 batting average, 3.42 ERA, outscored opponents by 10 runs.

Best Bet: Blue Jays -114

Rationale: The Blue Jays have the advantage of home-field momentum and are riding a strong pitching performance lately. With Chris Bassitt on the mound, who has been solid despite his 9-13 record, the Blue Jays are in a good position to take the win. The Phillies' Tyler Phillips, with his 5.50 ERA, may struggle against a potent Blue Jays lineup.

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  • Rockies: Kyle Freeland (4-6, 5.51 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 67 strikeouts)

  • Braves: Chris Sale (15-3, 2.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 197 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Braves -400, Rockies +312

  • Run Line: Braves -2.5 (-105), Rockies +2.5 (-115)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (-105), Under 7.5 (-115)

Game Overview:

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the struggling Colorado Rockies in the first game of a three-game series. The Braves, who are currently second in the NL East, will look to continue their solid play at home, where they have a 36-28 record. Meanwhile, the Rockies have had a tough season, particularly on the road, where they hold a dismal 19-50 record.

Braves Overview:

The Braves have been one of the more consistent teams in the National League this season, thanks in part to a strong lineup and solid pitching. Their hitters have maintained a .241 average, good enough for 10th in the NL, and they have been effective in outscoring their opponents with a 6-4 record over their last ten games. Chris Sale, who has been dominant with a 2.58 ERA and 197 strikeouts, will be on the mound, making the Braves heavy favorites in this matchup.

Key Performers:

  • Marcell Ozuna: Batting .306 with 37 home runs and 98 RBI, Ozuna has been a key contributor for the Braves.

  • Matt Olson: In his last ten games, Olson has been hot, going 13-for-41 with four home runs and 13 RBI.

Rockies Overview:

The Rockies have struggled mightily this season, especially on the road. Despite these challenges, they have shown flashes of competitiveness, as evidenced by their 33-11 record in games when they out-hit their opponents. However, their recent form has been inconsistent, with a 4-6 record over their last ten games. Kyle Freeland will take the mound, bringing a 5.51 ERA, which highlights the difficulties he and the Rockies' pitching staff have faced this season.

Key Performers:

  • Ryan McMahon: McMahon has been a bright spot for Colorado, with 25 doubles and 17 home runs on the season.

  • Brendan Rodgers: Over the last ten games, Rodgers has hit three home runs and has been a reliable bat for the Rockies.

Recent Form:

  • Braves: 6-4 in their last 10 games, with a .233 batting average and a strong 2.96 ERA, outscoring their opponents by nine runs.

  • Rockies: 4-6 in their last 10 games, with a .260 batting average but a poor 5.32 ERA, being outscored by six runs.

Best Bet: Braves -2.5 (-105)

Rationale: The Braves are heavy favorites, and with Chris Sale on the mound against a struggling Rockies team, they are likely to win convincingly. The Braves' offense, combined with Sale's dominant pitching, suggests that the run line at -2.5 is a strong play.

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Matchup Preview: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals

Date/Time: Tuesday, 7:40 p.m. EDT
Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

Team Records:

  • Cleveland Guardians: 79-59, 1st in AL Central

  • Kansas City Royals: 75-64, 3rd in AL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Guardians: Tanner Bibee (10-6, 3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 156 strikeouts)

  • Royals: Brady Singer (9-9, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 147 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Guardians -120, Royals +100

  • Run Line: Guardians -1.5 (+145), Royals +1.5 (-175)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (-120), Under 7.5 (+100)

Game Overview:

The Kansas City Royals are looking to snap a three-game home losing streak as they face the division-leading Cleveland Guardians. Kansas City, currently third in the AL Central, has a solid home record but has struggled recently. Meanwhile, Cleveland is clinging to its position atop the division, boasting a winning record both overall and on the road.

Guardians Overview:

The Guardians have been consistent this season, with solid pitching and a lineup that gets on base frequently. They are 6-4 in their last ten games, showing a balanced approach with a .272 batting average and a 4.20 ERA. Tanner Bibee will take the mound for Cleveland, bringing a respectable 3.65 ERA and 156 strikeouts this season. The Guardians will be looking to their offense, which features power from José Ramírez, to support Bibee and secure another win.

Key Performers:

  • José Ramírez: With 34 home runs and 31 doubles, Ramírez has been a key force in the Guardians' lineup.

  • Josh Naylor: Naylor has been hot recently, going 13-for-38 with four doubles and two home runs over the last ten games.

Royals Overview:

The Royals have had a decent season, particularly when out-hitting their opponents, but they’ve stumbled recently. They are just 3-7 in their last ten games, with a .217 batting average and a 4.96 ERA, showing their struggles both at the plate and on the mound. Brady Singer will start for Kansas City, bringing a solid 3.36 ERA into this matchup. The Royals will need their lineup, led by Bobby Witt Jr., to step up if they hope to end their home losing streak.

Key Performers:

  • Bobby Witt Jr.: Witt has been a bright spot for the Royals, contributing 39 doubles, 11 triples, and 30 home runs this season.

  • Paul DeJong: DeJong has been productive recently, with three home runs and six RBIs over the last ten games.

Recent Form:

  • Guardians: 6-4 in their last 10 games, with a .272 batting average and 4.20 ERA, outscoring opponents by 7 runs.

  • Royals: 3-7 in their last 10 games, with a .217 batting average and 4.96 ERA, being outscored by 13 runs.

Best Bet: Guardians -120

Rationale: The Guardians are in better form and have the edge in pitching with Tanner Bibee on the mound. Despite the Royals leading the season series, Cleveland’s recent consistency, coupled with Kansas City’s struggles, makes the Guardians a solid pick to win this game.

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Matchup Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs

Date/Time: Tuesday, 7:40 p.m. EDT
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois

Team Records:

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 64-73, 5th in NL Central

  • Chicago Cubs: 71-67, 2nd in NL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Pirates: Paul Skenes (8-2, 2.23 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 136 strikeouts)

  • Cubs: Justin Steele (5-5, 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 131 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Pirates -128, Cubs +107

  • Run Line: Pirates -1.5 (+135), Cubs +1.5 (-160)

  • Total: Over 6.5 (-120), Under 6.5 (+100)

Game Overview:

The Pittsburgh Pirates lead the three-game series 1-0 as they face off against the Chicago Cubs in the second game at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are looking to even the series and continue their push in the NL Central, where they currently sit in second place. The Pirates, meanwhile, are hoping to build momentum as they look to climb the standings.

Pirates Overview:

Pittsburgh has had an up-and-down season but has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly when their power hitters get hot. The Pirates have a solid road record and will look to build on their recent win against the Cubs. Paul Skenes takes the mound with an impressive 2.23 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00, giving Pittsburgh a strong chance to secure another win.

Key Performers:

  • Bryan Reynolds: Leading the Pirates with a .282 batting average, Reynolds has been a consistent force with 24 doubles, three triples, and 22 home runs this season.

  • Oneil Cruz: Cruz has been heating up, going 15-for-41 with five RBI over the last 10 games.

Cubs Overview:

The Cubs have been playing well recently, especially at home, where they have a solid record. They have a potent offense that has been producing runs, particularly when they can string together hits. Justin Steele will be on the mound, looking to build on his 3.09 ERA and help the Cubs get back in the win column.

Key Performers:

  • Seiya Suzuki: Suzuki is having a strong season, leading the Cubs with a .275 batting average and contributing 23 doubles, six triples, and 19 home runs.

  • Ian Happ: Happ has been on fire, going 17-for-44 with a home run and 10 RBI over the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Cubs: 8-2 in their last 10 games, with a .310 batting average and 4.96 ERA, outscoring opponents by 42 runs.

  • Pirates: 4-6 in their last 10 games, with a .260 batting average and 7.16 ERA, being outscored by 26 runs.

Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-120)

Rationale: Both teams have been scoring and allowing runs at a high rate recently, with the Cubs' offense in particular on a tear. The over on 6.5 looks appealing given the offensive firepower on both sides, even with solid starting pitching.