Best Bets - 9/18/2024

Author

Caleb Carte
September 18, 2024

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Good Morning,

We went an even 4-4 last night. Back at it today with more baseball action.

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Pitching Matchup:

  • Athletics: Brady Basso (1-0, 1.23 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11 strikeouts)

  • Cubs: Justin Steele (0-0)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Cubs -164, Athletics +138

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

  • Run Line: Athletics +1.5 (-150), Cubs -1.5 (+125)

Game Breakdown:

The Chicago Cubs and Oakland Athletics face off in the deciding game of a three-game series, which is currently tied at 1-1. The Cubs have been solid at home this season, with a 39-34 record, and they often find success when they get their offense going, as evidenced by their 59-24 record in games with eight or more hits.

Brady Basso takes the mound for the Athletics. Despite limited experience, he has been impressive in his outings, boasting a 1.23 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP over a small sample size. The Athletics' offense has been productive in terms of slugging, with a .399 slugging percentage, ranking them seventh in the American League.

Justin Steele is set to pitch for the Cubs. Though he has yet to make a mark this season, his addition to the rotation adds intrigue. The Cubs have been performing well offensively, with a .290 batting average over their last 10 games. They have also demonstrated an ability to score, outscoring their opponents by 11 runs in that span.

Top Performers:

  • Cubs:

    • Ian Happ (.249 AVG, 25 HRs, 85 RBIs, 75 walks)

    • Isaac Paredes (14-for-33, 1 double, 7 RBIs in the last 10 games)

  • Athletics:

    • Lawrence Butler (.256 AVG, 23 doubles, 22 HRs, 56 RBIs)

    • Brent Rooker (13-for-42, 3 HRs in the last 10 games)

Last 10 Games:

  • Cubs: 5-5, .290 batting average, 4.19 ERA, outscored opponents by 11 runs

  • Athletics: 4-6, .240 batting average, 4.25 ERA, outscored by 16 runs

Best Bet:

  • Cubs Moneyline (-164)

The Cubs have the edge in this matchup, especially playing at home, where they have shown consistency this season. Brady Basso has been effective for Oakland in limited appearances, but the Cubs' strong offensive performance in recent games gives them an advantage. With the Athletics struggling on the road (30-47) and the Cubs' ability to capitalize when their bats are hot, taking the Cubs on the moneyline seems like the most solid bet for this game.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (83-68) vs. Colorado Rockies (59-93)

Location: Denver; Wednesday, 3:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Diamondbacks: Eduardo Rodriguez (2-3, 5.50 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 25 strikeouts)

  • Rockies: Austin Gomber (5-10, 4.44 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 112 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Diamondbacks -143, Rockies +121

  • Over/Under: 10.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

  • Run Line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+100), Rockies +1.5 (-120)

Game Breakdown:

The Colorado Rockies are looking to complete a sweep of the three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Colorado has been solid at home this season with a 36-38 record, despite their overall struggles. They have a strong record of 36-11 when they out-hit their opponents, and they’ll look to capitalize on this momentum against the Diamondbacks.

Eduardo Rodriguez will start for Arizona. He’s had a challenging season with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. Arizona has an 8-4 lead in the season series against Colorado, but Rodriguez's recent form might be a concern. Despite this, the Diamondbacks have been efficient on the road and have a 60-7 record in games where they out-hit their opponents.

Austin Gomber takes the mound for the Rockies. While his season record of 5-10 and 4.44 ERA isn’t stellar, he has shown flashes of effectiveness. Colorado's offense will need to provide ample support to help Gomber secure a win.

Top Performers:

  • Rockies:

    • Brendan Rodgers (.270 AVG, 27 doubles, 13 HRs, 52 RBIs)

    • Ryan McMahon (9-for-37, 2 HRs, 3 RBIs in the last 10 games)

  • Diamondbacks:

    • Ketel Marte (.270 AVG, 21 doubles, 32 HRs)

    • Eugenio Suarez (16-for-38, 1 double, 4 HRs in the last 10 games)

Last 10 Games:

  • Rockies: 6-4, .233 batting average, 4.50 ERA, outscored by 4 runs

  • Diamondbacks: 4-6, .291 batting average, 6.51 ERA, outscored by 6 runs

Best Bet:

  • Over 10.5 Runs (-115)

Given that this game is being played at Coors Field, known for its hitter-friendly conditions, and considering the high ERAs of both starting pitchers, the over on 10.5 runs looks promising. Both teams have shown the ability to score runs, with the Diamondbacks posting a .291 batting average over their last 10 games despite recent losses. With Colorado’s solid performance at home and the Diamondbacks' potent offense, a high-scoring game is likely.

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San Francisco Giants (73-78) vs. Baltimore Orioles (84-67)

Location: Baltimore; Wednesday, 6:35 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Giants: Hayden Birdsong (3-5, 4.74 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 68 strikeouts)

  • Orioles: Dean Kremer (7-9, 4.10 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 113 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Orioles -176, Giants +147

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -130, Under +110)

  • Run Line: Giants +1.5 (-155), Orioles -1.5 (+130)

Game Breakdown:

The Baltimore Orioles, with a solid 84-67 record, will look to bounce back at home against the San Francisco Giants, who have struggled on the road this season (32-41). Baltimore’s strength lies in its ability to generate offense with power, holding a 55-12 record when they hit two or more home runs.

The Giants, on the other hand, have performed well when their offense clicks, with a 54-26 record when they record eight or more hits. San Francisco is also riding a three-game road winning streak, which gives them momentum going into this matchup.

Dean Kremer will start for the Orioles. He’s had a decent season with a 4.10 ERA and has been reliable, striking out 113 batters over 151.2 innings. Kremer will look to contain the Giants’ offense, which has been inconsistent but dangerous when it finds a rhythm.

For the Giants, Hayden Birdsong takes the mound. Birdsong has a 4.74 ERA and will face a potent Baltimore lineup that, despite recent struggles, has players like Anthony Santander, who has 41 home runs on the season. Baltimore’s offense has slowed recently with a .186 average over the last 10 games, but they remain dangerous.

Top Performers:

  • Orioles:

    • Anthony Santander (24 doubles, 41 HRs, 67 extra-base hits)

    • Cedric Mullins (7-for-30, 3 HRs, 5 RBIs in the last 10 games)

  • Giants:

    • Michael Conforto (25 doubles, 16 HRs, 59 RBIs)

    • Mike Yastrzemski (6-for-34, 3 HRs in the last 10 games)

Last 10 Games:

  • Orioles: 3-7, .186 batting average, 4.34 ERA, outscored by 26 runs

  • Giants: 4-6, .216 batting average, 3.30 ERA, outscored opponents by 3 runs

Best Bet:

  • Under 7.5 Runs (+110)

Both teams have struggled offensively over the last 10 games, with low batting averages and limited run production. The under on 7.5 runs is appealing considering the pitching matchup and the recent trends of these teams.

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Atlanta Braves (81-70) vs. Cincinnati Reds (74-78)

Location: Cincinnati; Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Braves: Spencer Schwellenbach (6-7, 3.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 113 strikeouts)

  • Reds: Jakob Junis (4-0, 2.73 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 42 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Braves -151, Reds +127

  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

  • Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+115), Reds +1.5 (-135)

Game Breakdown:

The Cincinnati Reds enter this matchup on a five-game home winning streak and hold a 4-0 lead in the season series against the Atlanta Braves. Despite their overall record of 74-78, the Reds have shown strength at home, particularly when their bats get hot—they have gone 35-13 in games when they hit two or more home runs.

The Braves have a solid 81-70 record, including 39-37 on the road. Atlanta has a high success rate when out-hitting their opponents, boasting a 59-13 record in such games. However, they've struggled recently against Cincinnati and will be looking to reverse that trend.

Spencer Schwellenbach will start for the Braves. He has been a reliable part of Atlanta's rotation with a 3.73 ERA and an impressive 1.10 WHIP. He'll face a Reds lineup featuring Jonathan India and TJ Friedl, who have been consistent contributors.

For the Reds, Jakob Junis takes the mound with an undefeated record of 4-0. Junis has been exceptional, sporting a 2.73 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. He’ll face a Braves offense led by Marcell Ozuna, who has been hitting .303 with 37 home runs this season, and Matt Olson, who has been productive over the last 10 games.

Top Performers:

  • Reds:

    • Jonathan India (.268 AVG, 28 doubles, 14 HRs)

    • TJ Friedl (11-for-35, 2 HRs in the last 10 games)

  • Braves:

    • Marcell Ozuna (.303 AVG, 28 doubles, 37 HRs, 98 RBIs)

    • Matt Olson (13-for-34, 1 HR, 11 RBIs in the last 10 games)

Last 10 Games:

  • Reds: 6-4, .236 batting average, 3.24 ERA, outscored opponents by 4 runs

  • Braves: 4-6, .238 batting average, 3.80 ERA, even run differential

Best Bet:

  • Under 8.5 Runs (-115)

Both pitchers have been effective this season, especially Junis, who boasts a strong 2.73 ERA. Given the current form of both teams and their solid pitching performances, the under 8.5 runs is a favorable option. Additionally, both offenses have been around average in the last 10 games, suggesting this could be a lower-scoring affair.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (89-62) vs. Miami Marlins (56-95)

Location: Miami; Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Dodgers: Landon Knack (2-4, 3.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 54 strikeouts)

  • Marlins: Ryan Weathers (0-0)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -182, Marlins +152

  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

  • Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (-110), Marlins +1.5 (-110)

Game Breakdown:

The Miami Marlins enter this game after a standout performance by Jesus Sanchez, who recorded five hits in Tuesday's contest. Despite the Marlins' poor season with a 56-95 overall record, they are still competitive when their offense clicks, having a 35-17 record when scoring at least five runs.

The Dodgers, at 89-62, have been consistent all year and lead the NL West. They have the fifth-best team batting average in MLB at .254, and their offensive depth, including contributions from Shohei Ohtani (48 home runs), makes them a formidable opponent.

Landon Knack takes the mound for the Dodgers, bringing a solid 3.70 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, while Ryan Weathers will make his season debut for Miami.

Top Performers:

  • Marlins:

    • Jesus Sanchez (.252 AVG, 24 doubles, 17 HRs, 62 RBIs)

    • Otto Lopez (13-for-36, 3 doubles, 3 HRs in the last 10 games)

  • Dodgers:

    • Shohei Ohtani (32 doubles, 7 triples, 48 HRs)

    • Teoscar Hernandez (13-for-36, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 3 RBIs in the last 10 games)

Last 10 Games:

  • Marlins: 4-6, .268 batting average, 3.86 ERA, outscored opponents by six runs

  • Dodgers: 5-5, .257 batting average, 4.66 ERA, outscored opponents by three runs

Best Bet:

  • Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

With the Dodgers' potent offense and the Marlins struggling overall, the Dodgers are in a good position to cover the run line at -1.5. Landon Knack has been reliable on the mound, and while Ryan Weathers has an unknown factor, the Dodgers’ ability to score consistently should give them the edge.

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Boston Red Sox (75-76) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (74-77)

Location: St. Petersburg, Florida; Wednesday, 6:50 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Red Sox: Tanner Houck (8-10, 3.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 150 strikeouts)

  • Rays: Ryan Pepiot (8-6, 3.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 119 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Rays -122, Red Sox +102

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -110, Under -110)

  • Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+170), Rays +1.5 (-215)

Game Breakdown:

The Tampa Bay Rays, currently at 74-77, host the Boston Red Sox, who are slightly ahead in the standings with a 75-76 record. This game is crucial as the season series is tied 4-4, and both teams are aiming to finish the season strong in the competitive AL East.

The Rays have a balanced home record of 38-38 and a solid pitching staff, ranking seventh in the AL with a 3.88 team ERA. Ryan Pepiot takes the mound for the Rays with a respectable 3.76 ERA. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have had some success on the road, boasting a 40-36 road record. Tanner Houck will start for Boston, bringing a strong 3.24 ERA and 150 strikeouts into the game.

Top Performers:

  • Rays:

    • Christopher Morel (21 HRs, .356 SLG)

    • Brandon Lowe (8-for-33, 3 HRs, 4 RBIs in the last 10 games)

  • Red Sox:

    • Tyler O'Neill (18 doubles, 31 HRs)

    • Rob Refsnyder (6-for-16, 1 double, 2 HRs in the last 10 games)

Last 10 Games:

  • Rays: 5-5, .249 batting average, 2.96 ERA, outscored opponents by four runs

  • Red Sox: 4-6, .240 batting average, 3.99 ERA, outscored opponents by two runs

Best Bet:

  • Under 7.5 (-110)

Both teams have solid pitching going into this matchup, with Tanner Houck and Ryan Pepiot posting respectable ERAs. Additionally, neither team's offense has been particularly dominant in the past 10 games. With the Rays' pitching staff holding a 2.96 ERA over their last 10 games and the Red Sox pitching at a 3.99 ERA, a lower-scoring game seems likely, making the under 7.5 a reasonable play.

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Detroit Tigers (79-73) vs. Kansas City Royals (82-70)

Location: Kansas City, Missouri; Wednesday, 7:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Tigers: Tarik Skubal (16-4, 2.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 214 strikeouts)

  • Royals: Alec Marsh (8-8, 4.52 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 116 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Tigers -148, Royals +125

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

  • Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (+125), Royals +1.5 (-150)

Game Breakdown:

The Detroit Tigers, riding a four-game road win streak, take on the Kansas City Royals in an AL Central matchup. The Royals lead the season series 7-5 but will face a challenging opponent in Tarik Skubal, who has been one of the best pitchers this season with a 16-4 record and a stellar 2.50 ERA. On the other hand, Alec Marsh starts for the Royals, with a decent 4.52 ERA.

Kansas City has performed well at home with a 45-32 record, relying on a strong offensive lineup that holds the sixth-ranked slugging percentage in the AL at .415. Detroit, however, boasts one of the league's best pitching staffs with the third-best team ERA in MLB at 3.64, making this a compelling contest between a potent Royals offense and a disciplined Tigers pitching staff.

Top Performers:

  • Royals:

    • Bobby Witt Jr.: .331 batting average, 32 HRs, 108 RBIs

    • Salvador Perez: 12-for-37, 2 HRs, 8 RBIs over the last 10 games

  • Tigers:

    • Riley Greene: 25 doubles, 6 triples, 23 HRs

    • Colt Keith: 12-for-36, 1 double, 1 HR, 4 RBIs over the last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

  • Royals: 5-5, .233 batting average, 3.10 ERA, outscored opponents by seven runs

  • Tigers: 8-2, .262 batting average, 2.27 ERA, outscored opponents by 25 runs

Best Bet:

  • Tigers Moneyline (-148):

The Tigers come into this game in excellent form, winning 8 of their last 10 games with a dominant pitching performance led by Tarik Skubal. Considering their recent success and the fact that Skubal has been nearly untouchable this season, Detroit looks like a solid pick to continue their road win streak. Additionally, the Tigers' strong pitching against a Royals team that has shown inconsistency makes the moneyline for the Tigers a strong play.