Best Bets - 9/17/2024

Good Morning,

Yesterday was our worst Prime Time Preview game of the season. Nothing to do but shake the dust off and move onto today’s bets. We pivot back to baseball where we’ve had an incredibly sharp month. Let’s see what today has in store for us!

San Francisco Giants (72-78) vs. Baltimore Orioles (84-66)

Location: Baltimore; Tuesday, 6:35 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Giants: Blake Snell (3-3, 3.52 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 124 strikeouts)

• Orioles: Albert Suarez (8-5, 3.39 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 95 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Giants -117, Orioles -103

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

• Run Line: Giants -1.5 (+150), Orioles +1.5 (-180)

Game Breakdown:

The San Francisco Giants are aiming to break a four-game losing streak against the Baltimore Orioles. Both teams are coming off subpar performances in their last 10 games. Blake Snell takes the mound for the Giants, sporting a 3.52 ERA and a solid 1.12 WHIP. His counterpart, Albert Suarez, has a slightly better ERA at 3.39, but with a higher WHIP of 1.29.

The Orioles have a strong home record and are dangerous when they hit multiple home runs, boasting a 55-12 record in those games. However, they have been struggling offensively in their last 10 games, hitting just .193. The Giants have also had offensive struggles, but they have performed well when recording eight or more hits in a game.

Top Performers:

• Orioles: Gunnar Henderson has been a powerhouse, contributing 37 home runs, 28 doubles, and seven triples this season. Cedric Mullins is heating up, going 9-for-30 with three home runs over the last 10 games.

• Giants: Matt Chapman leads the team with 61 extra-base hits, including 36 doubles and 24 home runs. Mike Yastrzemski has shown some power lately, hitting three home runs and driving in six RBI over his last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

• Orioles: 3-7, .193 batting average, 4.13 ERA, outscored by 23 runs

• Giants: 4-6, .213 batting average, 3.40 ERA, outscored by six runs

Best Bet:

• Under 7.5 Runs (-115)

Given the recent struggles of both teams' offenses and the solid pitching matchup, the under seems like a solid play here. Snell and Suarez have been relatively effective, and with both teams having a batting average below .220 over their last 10 games, a low-scoring contest seems likely.

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Atlanta Braves (81-69) vs. Cincinnati Reds (73-78)

Location: Cincinnati; Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Braves: Grant Holmes (2-1, 3.79 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 54 strikeouts)

• Reds: Brandon Williamson (0-0, 2.08 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 11 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Braves -120, Reds +100

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -135, Under +115)

• Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+130), Reds +1.5 (-155)

Game Breakdown:

The Atlanta Braves visit the Cincinnati Reds as the latter look to continue their strong home form with a four-game winning streak. The Braves are aiming to improve their standing in the NL East, while the Reds are playing for pride in the NL Central.

Grant Holmes will take the mound for the Braves. With a solid 3.79 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, he’s been effective but not overpowering. The Braves are generally strong on the road but have a middling on-base percentage, which might make them vulnerable against a well-performing pitcher like Brandon Williamson of the Reds. Williamson has a stellar 2.08 ERA and 0.77 WHIP, albeit in a limited number of innings.

Cincinnati has struggled offensively this season but has shown some spark with players like Elly De La Cruz, who leads with 24 home runs and a .257 average. TJ Friedl has been a bright spot recently, hitting three home runs in his last 10 games.

Atlanta counters with Jorge Soler and Michael Harris II, who have both been key contributors. Soler has 31 doubles and 18 home runs, while Harris has been hitting well recently.

Top Performers:

• Reds: Elly De La Cruz (24 HRs, .257 AVG), TJ Friedl (3 HRs in last 10 games)

• Braves: Jorge Soler (31 doubles, 18 HRs), Michael Harris II (2 HRs in last 10 games)

Last 10 Games:

• Reds: 5-5, .216 batting average, 3.24 ERA, outscored opponents by 1 run

• Braves: 5-5, .229 batting average, 3.26 ERA, outscored opponents by 3 runs

Best Bet:

• Under 8.5 Runs (+115)

Both teams have had recent struggles with their batting averages, and Williamson's strong performance so far could keep the game low-scoring. Additionally, both teams have been scoring just enough to win without overwhelming opponents, making the under a promising bet.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (89-61) vs. Miami Marlins (55-95)

Location: Miami; Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Dodgers: Bobby Miller (2-4, 8.17 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 50 strikeouts)

• Marlins: Darren McCaughan (0-0, 7.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 15 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Dodgers -195, Marlins +161

• Over/Under: 9.5 (Over +100, Under -120)

• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (-125), Marlins +1.5 (+105)

Game Breakdown:

The Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Miami Marlins to start a three-game series in Miami. The Dodgers are looking to maintain their lead in the NL West, while the Marlins are hoping to finish the season on a high note despite being at the bottom of the NL East.

Bobby Miller will pitch for the Dodgers. He has struggled this season, carrying an 8.17 ERA and a high 1.69 WHIP. This game could be an opportunity for Miller to improve his numbers against a Marlins team that has found it difficult to generate offense consistently.

For the Marlins, Darren McCaughan is starting on the mound. His 7.06 ERA and 1.81 WHIP indicate that he has been hit hard in his outings. Both teams have pitchers with high ERAs, which could lead to a high-scoring game.

The Marlins' offense has been led by Jake Burger, who has 25 home runs this season, while Otto Lopez has been performing well recently. However, the Dodgers boast a powerhouse lineup featuring Shohei Ohtani and Tommy Edman, both of whom have been in good form lately. Ohtani has been a force with 47 home runs, and Edman is coming off a hot streak.

Top Performers:

• Marlins: Jake Burger (25 HRs, .244 AVG), Otto Lopez (4 doubles, 2 HRs in last 10 games)

• Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (47 HRs, .244 AVG), Tommy Edman (3 doubles, 5 HRs in last 10 games)

Last 10 Games:

• Marlins: 3-7, .243 batting average, 4.50 ERA, outscored by 10 runs

• Dodgers: 5-5, .243 batting average, 3.78 ERA, outscored opponents by 3 runs

Best Bet:

• Over 9.5 Runs (+100)

Given the high ERAs of both starting pitchers, this game has the potential for plenty of runs. The Dodgers have a potent lineup capable of capitalizing on McCaughan's struggles, and the Marlins could also find success against Miller's 8.17 ERA. The over at 9.5 runs looks like a promising play in this matchup.

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