Best Bets - 9/13/2024

Good Morning,

Yesterday our A.I. was on point for the Thursday night NFL game but also disappointing. Both can be true. Let me explain:

We went 3-3 on the night. When Tua went down with an injury in the third quarter, we were 8 passing attempts away from cashing his passing attempt total. In a game that they were behind but within reach (assuming they would have scored had he not got injured), I believe that was going to cash. I also believe the over would have cashed had he not got injured.

Unfortunately, A.I. can not predict these types of things! I’m convinced we were on our way to a 5-1 night before the injury. 3-3 is 3-3. I’m not trying to spin it. However, I guess I am just pointing out that the A.I. predictions had us in the right place. Sometimes things like an injury to a starting quarterback can derail that. I can live with it knowing that we were in the right place.

Also, our 2 ½ week baseball win streak came to an end last night. Good thing we have more games to start a new streak today!

New York Mets (80-66) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (88-58)

Location: Philadelphia; Friday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Mets: José Quintana (8-9, 4.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 118 strikeouts)

• Phillies: Aaron Nola (12-7, 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 167 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Phillies -163, Mets +138

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

• Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-155), Phillies -1.5 (+130)

Game Breakdown:

The Philadelphia Phillies will aim to extend their five-game home winning streak as they host the New York Mets. Philadelphia is enjoying a dominant season, leading the NL East with an impressive 88-58 record, especially strong at home with a 50-25 mark. They thrive offensively, boasting a 64-22 record when they collect at least eight hits in a game.

The Mets, meanwhile, are in second place in the division, boasting a solid 80-66 overall record and 40-32 on the road. Despite offensive struggles recently, as evidenced by their .201 team batting average over the last 10 games, their pitching has been exceptional, helping them go 8-2 during this stretch with a remarkable 2.20 ERA.

Pitching Spotlight:
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia's ace, has been steady with a 3.41 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He provides the Phillies with a reliable starter, especially at home. On the Mets' side, José Quintana brings a 4.09 ERA and has been dependable, though less dominant than Nola.

Top Performers:

• Phillies: Trea Turner leads the Phillies with a .298 batting average and contributes across the board with 22 doubles, 18 home runs, and 55 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber has been red-hot, going 15-for-39 with seven home runs and 13 RBIs in the last 10 games.

• Mets: Francisco Lindor has powered the Mets with 31 home runs and a .492 slugging percentage. Mark Vientos has also been contributing lately, hitting 10-for-37 with three home runs in the last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

• Phillies: 8-2, .282 batting average, 4.00 ERA, outscored opponents by 15 runs

• Mets: 8-2, .201 batting average, 2.20 ERA, outscored opponents by 20 runs

Best Bet:

• Phillies Moneyline (-163)

The Phillies' strong home performance and Aaron Nola's consistent pitching make them the favorites in this matchup, despite the Mets' solid recent record.

_________________

Miami Marlins (55-92) vs. Washington Nationals (65-81)

Location: Washington; Friday, 6:45 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Marlins: Edward Cabrera (4-6, 4.88 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 90 strikeouts)

• Nationals: DJ Herz (3-7, 3.82 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 93 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Nationals -147, Marlins +123

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over +105, Under -125)

• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-175), Nationals -1.5 (+145)

Game Breakdown:

The Miami Marlins head into Friday's matchup against the Washington Nationals with a 1-0 series lead. However, Washington has dominated the season series, holding an 8-2 advantage.

The Nationals have struggled at home with a 33-39 record but will look to bounce back behind DJ Herz, who has a 3.82 ERA and solid command, allowing just a 1.22 WHIP. The team has played in many close games, with a 13-20 record in one-run games.

For the Marlins, Edward Cabrera takes the mound with a 4.88 ERA. Miami’s road struggles continue as they sport a 27-45 away record, though they have been effective when scoring at least five runs, posting a 34-17 record in those instances.

Top Performers:

• Nationals: C.J. Abrams has been a key contributor, hitting 27 doubles, six triples, and 20 home runs, with 65 RBIs on the season. Andres Chaparro has also been hot lately, with three doubles, two home runs, and nine RBIs over the last 10 games.

• Marlins: Jesús Sánchez has been a steady offensive player for Miami, hitting 22 doubles and 17 home runs. Otto Lopez has been productive recently, going 13-for-40 with a home run and six RBIs in his last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

• Nationals: 4-6, .236 batting average, 5.52 ERA, outscored by 26 runs

• Marlins: 4-6, .243 batting average, 4.70 ERA, outscored by nine runs

Best Bet:

• Nationals Moneyline (-147)

With DJ Herz performing consistently and the Nationals holding a strong season-series lead over the Marlins, Washington is positioned well to take this game.

________________

Boston Red Sox (74-73) vs. New York Yankees (85-62)

Location: New York; Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Red Sox: Tanner Houck (8-10, 3.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 150 strikeouts)

• Yankees: Clarke Schmidt (5-3, 2.34 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 69 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Yankees -147, Red Sox +123

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)

• Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-165), Yankees -1.5 (+140)

Game Breakdown:

The Red Sox are looking to break a six-game road losing streak as they face off against the Yankees in the opener of a series on Friday. The season series between the two rivals is tied 5-5.

The Yankees are strong at home, holding a 40-32 record at Yankee Stadium. Their powerful lineup leads the MLB with 217 total home runs, averaging 1.5 per game. Aaron Judge has been dominant with 51 home runs and 126 RBI.

The Red Sox, despite their recent struggles, are 39-33 on the road. Their lineup features power as well, ranking fourth in the AL with 183 home runs. Tyler O’Neill has been a key contributor with 30 home runs and a .547 slugging percentage.

Top Performers:

• Yankees: Aaron Judge continues to be the offensive leader, with a team-high 51 home runs and 126 RBI. Juan Soto has been solid lately, going 9-for-35 with two home runs over the last 10 games.

• Red Sox: Tyler O’Neill leads the Red Sox in home runs with 30. Connor Wong has been productive recently, going 10-for-35 with five doubles and a home run in the last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

• Yankees: 6-4, .227 batting average, 3.00 ERA, outscored opponents by four runs

• Red Sox: 4-6, .239 batting average, 4.19 ERA, outscored by six runs

Best Bet:

• Yankees Moneyline (-147)

With Clarke Schmidt’s strong pitching (2.34 ERA) and the Yankees’ power advantage at home, New York is in a solid position to extend Boston’s road struggles.

Subscribe to Premium Data to read the rest.