Best Bets - 9/12/2024

September 12, 2024

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Good Morning!

We kept our baseball win streak going yesterday! 4-3 isn’t anything to go crazy about but it keeps our 2 week+ win streak on baseball alive and added us nearly a unit to our bankroll.

Our A.I. system has really been crushing with baseball. I’ve ran the predictions and I think we can keep it alive today!

We also will have our “Prime Time Betting Preview” coming out later today to break down some bets between the Bills and Dolphins.

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Colorado Rockies (54-92) vs. Detroit Tigers (75-71)

Location: Detroit; Thursday, 1:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Rockies: Ryan Feltner (2-10, 4.96 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 121 strikeouts)

  • Tigers: Tarik Skubal (16-4, 2.53 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 208 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Tigers -257, Rockies +208

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over +110, Under -130)

  • Run Line: Rockies +1.5 (+105), Tigers -1.5 (-125)

Game Breakdown:

The Detroit Tigers will look to complete their series against the struggling Colorado Rockies, who have been abysmal on the road with a 22-55 record. The Tigers, with a solid 37-34 home record, have momentum after Kerry Carpenter's four-hit game on Wednesday. Detroit has been dangerous when recording eight or more hits, with a 55-14 record in such games.

On the mound, Tarik Skubal is having a stellar season, boasting a 16-4 record and a 2.53 ERA. Ryan Feltner, on the other hand, has struggled with a 2-10 record and an ERA close to 5.00. Detroit's pitching advantage is significant.

Top Performers:

  • Tigers: Riley Greene has been productive with 25 doubles, six triples, and 21 home runs. Trey Sweeney has been in form over the last 10 games, going 10-for-34 with three homers.

  • Rockies: Mike Toglia leads the Rockies with 23 home runs, and Ryan McMahon is 10-for-34 with two homers in his last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Tigers: 7-3, .256 batting average, 2.05 ERA, outscored opponents by 23 runs.

  • Rockies: 4-6, .195 batting average, 4.45 ERA, outscored by 20 runs.

Best Bet:

  • Tigers -1.5 (-125)

With the Tigers' strong home performance, Skubal's dominant pitching, and the Rockies' poor road record, Detroit covering the -1.5 spread looks like a solid bet.

For a total, the Under 7.5 (-130) may also be appealing given Skubal’s impressive ERA and Colorado’s recent offensive struggles.

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Cincinnati Reds (71-76) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (73-72)

Location: St. Louis; Thursday, 1:15 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Reds: Jakob Junis (4-0, 2.82 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 39 strikeouts)

  • Cardinals: Sonny Gray (12-9, 3.84 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 186 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Cardinals -179, Reds +149

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

  • Run Line: Reds +1.5 (-150), Cardinals -1.5 (+125)

Game Breakdown:

The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds meet Thursday to decide the winner of their three-game series. St. Louis has the advantage at home, boasting a 38-35 record, while Cincinnati has been inconsistent on the road at 35-37. The Cardinals are particularly strong when hitting multiple home runs, with a 24-13 record in those games.

Sonny Gray takes the mound for St. Louis, looking to bounce back after a few rocky starts. Jakob Junis has been solid for the Reds, sporting an impressive 2.82 ERA and a strong WHIP of 0.92.

Top Performers:

  • Cardinals: Masyn Winn is hitting .271 with 26 doubles, four triples, and 12 home runs. Brendan Donovan is hitting .359 (14-for-39) with a home run in the last 10 games.

  • Reds: Elly De La Cruz has clubbed 23 home runs and slugged .470 this season, while Will Benson has two homers and four RBI in his last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Cardinals: 6-4, .228 batting average, 4.16 ERA, outscored by five runs.

  • Reds: 7-3, .232 batting average, 1.90 ERA, outscored opponents by 10 runs.

Best Bet:

  • Under 7.5 (-115)

With both teams' recent pitching performing well and the Reds' impressive 1.90 ERA over their last 10 games, the Under 7.5 looks like a strong play. Sonny Gray can be dominant, and Jakob Junis has kept runs down, suggesting a low-scoring game.

Alternatively, the Reds +1.5 (-150) is a safer option, as they’ve been competitive in recent matchups and lead the season series.

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Oakland Athletics (64-82) vs. Houston Astros (77-68)

Location: Houston; Thursday, 2:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Athletics: Mitch Spence (7-9, 4.42 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 111 strikeouts)

  • Astros: Framber Valdez (14-6, 2.97 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 153 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Astros -236, Athletics +193

  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over +110, Under -130)

  • Run Line: Athletics +1.5 (-105), Astros -1.5 (-115)

Game Breakdown:

The Houston Astros will try to halt their three-game losing streak as they face the Oakland Athletics, who have been struggling on the road with a 28-43 record. The Astros remain formidable at home, posting a 41-32 record, and they continue to show power at the plate, ranking sixth in the AL with 170 home runs this season.

Framber Valdez takes the mound for Houston, boasting an excellent 2.97 ERA and 153 strikeouts. Oakland counters with Mitch Spence, who has had an up-and-down season with a 4.42 ERA. Houston has dominated the season series so far, holding a 7-5 advantage over Oakland.

Top Performers:

  • Astros: Yordan Alvarez is having a stellar year, hitting .313 with 32 home runs and 80 RBI. Jose Altuve has also been hot, going 14-for-39 with a home run and five RBI in his last 10 games.

  • Athletics: Brent Rooker leads Oakland with 35 home runs, while Shea Langeliers has been productive recently, hitting 10-for-41 with three home runs and seven RBI over the last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Astros: 4-6, .256 batting average, 3.80 ERA, outscored opponents by four runs.

  • Athletics: 5-5, .253 batting average, 4.54 ERA, outscored by 21 runs.

Best Bet:

  • Under 8.5 (-130)

With Framber Valdez pitching well and both teams' recent offensive struggles, the Under 8.5 looks promising. Valdez’s ability to limit runs, combined with Oakland’s inconsistent offense, suggests a lower-scoring game.

Alternatively, betting on Astros -1.5 (-115) seems reasonable, as Houston is likely to bounce back and dominate a weaker Athletics team with Valdez on the mound.

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Miami Marlins (54-92) vs. Washington Nationals (65-80)

Location: Washington; Thursday, 6:45 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Marlins: Darren McCaughan (0-0, 7.40 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 14 strikeouts)

  • Nationals: Mitchell Parker (7-9, 4.43 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 122 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Nationals -181, Marlins +151

  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

  • Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-130), Nationals -1.5 (+110)

Game Breakdown:

The Washington Nationals, coming off a stretch where they've struggled at home (33-38), start a four-game series against the Miami Marlins. The Nationals have dominated the season series, leading 8-1, and they’ll look to add to that success with Mitchell Parker taking the mound. Parker has been decent this season with a 4.43 ERA, while Darren McCaughan of the Marlins has struggled with a 7.40 ERA over limited appearances.

The Marlins have struggled on the road this season with a 26-45 record and are looking for a spark in this series. Scoring has been key for Miami, as they are 33-17 when they score at least five runs, but consistent offense has been a challenge.

Top Performers:

  • Nationals: Luis Garcia is having a solid season, batting .284 with 25 doubles and 15 home runs. Jose Tena has also been performing well recently, going 13-for-41 with two doubles in his last 10 games.

  • Marlins: Jake Burger has been a bright spot for Miami, with 19 doubles, 25 home runs, and a triple on the season. Otto Lopez has also been productive lately, hitting 13-for-40 with four doubles and a home run over the past 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Nationals: 4-6, .247 batting average, 5.62 ERA, outscored by 25 runs.

  • Marlins: 4-6, .248 batting average, 4.81 ERA, outscored by 10 runs.

Best Bet:

  • Nationals -1.5 (+110)

Washington has dominated the season series, and with McCaughan’s struggles on the mound for Miami, the Nationals could cover the run line. The Marlins have been poor on the road, making the Nationals -1.5 an attractive play, especially with the plus-money value.

For those more risk-averse, taking the Nationals moneyline (-181) could be a safer option

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Boston Red Sox (74-72) vs. New York Yankees (84-62)

Location: New York; Thursday, 7:15 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Red Sox: Cooper Criswell (6-4, 4.11 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 66 strikeouts)

  • Yankees: Nestor Cortes Jr. (9-10, 3.97 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 147 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Yankees -167, Red Sox +141

  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

  • Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-130), Yankees -1.5 (+110)

Game Breakdown:

The New York Yankees, sitting comfortably in first place in the AL East, are opening a four-game series at home against their historic rivals, the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees have been strong at home with a 39-32 record and lead the American League with 216 home runs this season, averaging 1.5 per game. Aaron Judge continues to be their offensive powerhouse, leading the team with a .320 batting average, 51 home runs, and 126 RBIs.

Boston, third in the AL East, is looking to climb back into playoff contention. They have a strong road record of 39-32 and are powered by a top-tier offense that ranks fifth in slugging percentage across MLB at .432. However, their pitching has been inconsistent, and they'll rely on Cooper Criswell, who brings a 4.11 ERA into the game, to try to keep New York’s explosive offense in check.

Top Performers:

  • Yankees: Aaron Judge has been outstanding with 33 doubles, 51 home runs, 119 walks, and 126 RBIs. Gleyber Torres has also been hot, going 15-for-41 with five RBIs over the last 10 games.

  • Red Sox: Tyler O'Neill has 17 doubles, 30 home runs, and 59 RBIs this season. Ceddanne Rafaela has been contributing recently, hitting 7-for-36 with a double, triple, and two home runs over the past 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Yankees: 5-5, .236 batting average, 4.24 ERA, outscored by four runs

  • Red Sox: 4-6, .246 batting average, 4.55 ERA, outscored by eight runs

Best Bet:

  • Yankees -1.5 (+110)

With the Yankees playing at home and facing a struggling Red Sox pitching staff, backing New York to win by at least two runs offers solid value. The Yankees’ potent offense, led by Aaron Judge, along with Nestor Cortes Jr.'s solid season, makes the Yankees -1.5 a good option.

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Tampa Bay Rays (71-75) vs. Cleveland Guardians (84-62)

Location: Cleveland; Thursday, 7:15 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Rays: Ryan Pepiot (8-6, 3.66 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 118 strikeouts)

  • Guardians: Gavin Williams (3-8, 5.25 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 64 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Guardians -141, Rays +120

  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over +105, Under -125)

  • Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-175), Guardians -1.5 (+145)

Game Breakdown:

The Tampa Bay Rays are looking to end a three-game road losing streak as they travel to Cleveland to face the Guardians. The Guardians have been strong at home with a 43-25 record and sit atop the AL Central standings. They excel when their offense is productive, holding a 60-11 record when they out-hit their opponents. Jose Ramirez continues to lead Cleveland's offense with 32 doubles, 34 home runs, and 106 RBIs, providing much of their offensive punch.

The Rays, currently fourth in the AL East, have struggled on the road this season with a 34-37 record. However, they have been dominant when scoring five or more runs, going 42-8 in such games. Yandy Diaz has been a consistent performer for Tampa Bay, with 27 doubles and 14 home runs. Jonny Deluca has been heating up recently, going 13-for-36 with extra-base hits.

Top Performers:

  • Guardians: Jose Ramirez continues to be a force at the plate with 32 doubles, 34 home runs, and 106 RBIs. Lane Thomas has been hot recently, going 15-for-37 with three home runs and 13 RBIs over the past 10 games.

  • Rays: Yandy Diaz has 27 doubles, 14 home runs, and 65 RBIs on the season, while Jonny Deluca has been in good form, hitting 13-for-36 with a triple and two home runs in his last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Guardians: 7-3, .255 batting average, 2.38 ERA, outscored opponents by 12 runs

  • Rays: 4-6, .238 batting average, 3.03 ERA, outscored opponents by three runs

Best Bet:

  • Guardians Moneyline (-141)

The Guardians’ home-field advantage, solid recent form, and their superior pitching matchup give them the edge in this contest.

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Texas Rangers (70-76) vs. Seattle Mariners (74-72)

Location: Seattle; Thursday, 9:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Rangers: Kumar Rocker (0-0)

  • Mariners: Bryce Miller (11-8, 3.18 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 151 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Mariners -158, Rangers +134

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over +105, Under -125)

  • Run Line: Rangers +1.5 (-160), Mariners -1.5 (+135)

Game Breakdown:

The Seattle Mariners open a four-game series at home against the Texas Rangers. The Mariners, with a 42-29 record at home, boast the top team ERA in the American League at 3.53, making them formidable on the mound. Bryce Miller, with his 3.18 ERA, has been a consistent performer for Seattle and will look to build on his strong season.

The Rangers have struggled on the road this season, going 29-42, but have a powerful lineup, particularly when it comes to hitting home runs. Texas has a 29-14 record in games where they hit two or more home runs, and Marcus Semien has been a key contributor with 25 doubles and 20 home runs on the season.

Seattle leads the season series 5-1 and looks to extend their dominance in this divisional rivalry.

Top Performers:

  • Mariners: Cal Raleigh continues to be a key power hitter for the Mariners with 30 home runs and a .433 slugging percentage. Victor Robles has also been hitting well, going 13-for-32 with four doubles and six RBIs in his last 10 games.

  • Rangers: Marcus Semien has been a consistent offensive force with 25 doubles and 20 home runs. Wyatt Langford has been hot recently, hitting 14-for-41 with three doubles and two home runs over the past 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Mariners: 5-5, .260 batting average, 3.55 ERA, outscored opponents by 20 runs

  • Rangers: 6-4, .245 batting average, 5.26 ERA, outscored by eight runs

Best Bet:

  • Mariners Moneyline (-158)

With Bryce Miller on the mound and Seattle's superior pitching, they are in a strong position to take the opening game against the Rangers.

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Texas Rangers (70-76) vs. Seattle Mariners (74-72)

Location: Seattle; Thursday, 9:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Rangers: Kumar Rocker (0-0)

  • Mariners: Bryce Miller (11-8, 3.18 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 151 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Mariners -158, Rangers +134

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over +105, Under -125)

  • Run Line: Rangers +1.5 (-160), Mariners -1.5 (+135)

Game Breakdown:

The Seattle Mariners open a four-game series at home against the Texas Rangers. The Mariners, with a 42-29 record at home, boast the top team ERA in the American League at 3.53, making them formidable on the mound. Bryce Miller, with his 3.18 ERA, has been a consistent performer for Seattle and will look to build on his strong season.

The Rangers have struggled on the road this season, going 29-42, but have a powerful lineup, particularly when it comes to hitting home runs. Texas has a 29-14 record in games where they hit two or more home runs, and Marcus Semien has been a key contributor with 25 doubles and 20 home runs on the season.

Seattle leads the season series 5-1 and looks to extend their dominance in this divisional rivalry.

Top Performers:

  • Mariners: Cal Raleigh continues to be a key power hitter for the Mariners with 30 home runs and a .433 slugging percentage. Victor Robles has also been hitting well, going 13-for-32 with four doubles and six RBIs in his last 10 games.

  • Rangers: Marcus Semien has been a consistent offensive force with 25 doubles and 20 home runs. Wyatt Langford has been hot recently, hitting 14-for-41 with three doubles and two home runs over the past 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Mariners: 5-5, .260 batting average, 3.55 ERA, outscored opponents by 20 runs

  • Rangers: 6-4, .245 batting average, 5.26 ERA, outscored by eight runs

Best Bet:

  • Mariners Moneyline (-158)

With Bryce Miller on the mound and Seattle's superior pitching, they are in a strong position to take the opening game against the Rangers.