Best Bets - 9/10/2024

Good Morning,

Yesterday was a 5-3 day on baseball and our first losing effort out of 4 prime time NFL games. As we take a 2 day pause from NFL, we’ve got some baseball bets ready to go to you today. It has been quite a while since we’ve had a losing day on baseball. Let’s see if our A.I. betting system can continue the win streak!

Colorado Rockies (54-90) vs. Detroit Tigers (73-71)

Location: Detroit; Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Rockies: Bradley Blalock (1-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 16 strikeouts)

• Tigers: Keider Montero (4-6, 5.47 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 60 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Tigers -178, Rockies +148

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

• Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (+120), Rockies +1.5 (-145)

Game Breakdown:

The Detroit Tigers have been solid at home with a 35-34 record and are coming off a strong performance against the Athletics, powered by Trey Sweeney’s four-hit game. They are particularly effective when their offense clicks, boasting a 48-9 record when scoring five or more runs. Riley Greene and Zach McKinstry have been key contributors recently, with Greene showing power with 20 home runs this season.

The Rockies, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, with a poor 22-53 record. While they are capable of out-hitting opponents occasionally (35-11 record in such games), their overall performance has been inconsistent. Brendan Rodgers and Ezequiel Tovar have been the bright spots for Colorado, with Rodgers hitting well over the past 10 games.

Both pitchers—Bradley Blalock for the Rockies and Keider Montero for the Tigers—have struggled, with ERAs above 5.00, so this matchup could see some offensive production.

Best Bet:

• Over 8.5 (-105)

With both teams featuring pitchers with high ERAs and offenses that can capitalize on mistakes, the over 8.5 runs looks like a strong play. Both teams have been relatively consistent offensively, and the pitching matchup favors a higher-scoring game.

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Miami Marlins (54-90) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-76)

Location: Pittsburgh; Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Marlins: Adam Oller (1-2, 4.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 22 strikeouts)

• Pirates: Carmen Mlodzinski (2-5, 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 36 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Pirates -142, Marlins +121

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -130, Under +110)

• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-165), Pirates -1.5 (+140)

Game Breakdown:

The Pittsburgh Pirates hold a 5-0 advantage over the Miami Marlins in the season series and are looking to build on their strong record against them. Bryan Reynolds has been a consistent power bat for Pittsburgh with 22 home runs, while Andrew McCutchen has been swinging a hot bat in the last 10 games.

The Marlins, who have struggled mightily on the road (26-43), have also struggled against the Pirates this season. Jake Burger leads the Marlins in home runs with 25, but overall, their offense has been inconsistent, as reflected by their record.

Both teams have been hovering around average form over the last 10 games, with Miami posting a .241 batting average and a 4.35 ERA. The Pirates, meanwhile, have been slightly better defensively but still struggle offensively with a .214 average over the last 10 games.

Best Bet:

• Pirates Moneyline (-142)

Given the Pirates' dominance in the season series and the Marlins' road struggles, backing Pittsburgh to win seems like a solid option. Carmen Mlodzinski has pitched decently, and the Pirates' familiarity with Miami gives them the edge.

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Tampa Bay Rays (71-73) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (86-58)

Location: Philadelphia; Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Rays: Taj Bradley (6-10, 4.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 131 strikeouts)

• Phillies: Ranger Suarez (12-6, 2.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 132 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Phillies -172, Rays +144

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+125), Rays +1.5 (-150)

Game Breakdown:

The Phillies come into this game with momentum, riding a three-game home win streak and an impressive overall home record (48-25). Their offense, which ranks third in the NL with a .259 team batting average, is led by Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, who is red hot with six home runs in the last 10 games. The Phillies' consistency, both offensively and on the mound with Ranger Suarez (2.90 ERA), makes them the favorite in this matchup.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been solid on the road but sits slightly under .500. Taj Bradley (4.40 ERA) will need to be sharp against a powerful Phillies lineup. While the Rays have a solid team ERA over the past 10 games (2.65), their offense has been inconsistent (.238 average). Yandy Diaz continues to be a reliable contributor for Tampa Bay, but the Rays may struggle to keep pace with the Phillies’ firepower.

Best Bet:

• Phillies -1.5 (+125)

Given the Phillies’ recent form, strong home record, and the pitching advantage with Ranger Suarez on the mound, backing the Phillies to cover the run line at +125 offers good value. They’ve been scoring well at home and should be able to continue that against a Rays team that has struggled for consistency.

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