Best Bets - 9/26/2024

Author

Caleb Carte
September 26, 2024

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Good Morning,

We turned in a 4-4 day yesterday in baseball. Nothing to get excited about. Nothing to get upset about. We will be back today and cashing bets!

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Milwaukee Brewers (90-68) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (74-84)

Location: Pittsburgh; Thursday, 12:35 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Brewers: Aaron Civale (7-9, 4.53 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 144 strikeouts)

  • Pirates: Mitch Keller (11-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 160 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -120, Pirates +100

  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over +110, Under -130)

  • Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+140), Pirates +1.5 (-165)

Game Breakdown:

The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to secure a series win in this final matchup. The season series between the two teams is tied at 6-6, making this game a tiebreaker. Milwaukee, already atop the NL Central, will be motivated to maintain momentum as the regular season winds down. The Brewers' pitching staff has been one of the best in the NL with a 3.68 collective ERA, second in the league.

The Pirates have shown resilience at home with a 39-41 record and are effective at limiting damage when they don’t allow home runs, boasting a 40-19 record in those games. Mitch Keller, their starter, has been solid despite a middle-of-the-pack ERA, and he’ll be looking to finish the season on a high note.

Top Performers:

  • Pirates:

    • Bryan Reynolds: Has been a key offensive contributor with 29 doubles, three triples, and 22 home runs.

    • Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Hitting well recently, with 14 hits in his last 43 at-bats.

  • Brewers:

    • Willy Adames: Milwaukee's power threat with 32 home runs and a .468 slugging percentage.

    • Garrett Mitchell: In form lately, going 8-for-29 with three home runs and seven RBIs in his last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Pirates: 4-6, .230 batting average, 4.55 ERA, outscored by 22 runs.

  • Brewers: 4-6, .224 batting average, 4.55 ERA, outscored by seven runs.

Best Bet:

  • Brewers Moneyline (-120): With Milwaukee’s overall strength and better pitching depth, they have a good chance to edge out the Pirates in this series decider.

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Kansas City Royals (84-74) vs. Washington Nationals (69-89)

Location: Washington; Thursday, 1:05 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Royals: Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.28 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 143 strikeouts)

  • Nationals: Patrick Corbin (6-13, 5.58 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 136 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Royals -172, Nationals +144

  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

  • Run Line: Royals -1.5 (-105), Nationals +1.5 (-115)

Game Breakdown:

The Washington Nationals are aiming to snap a three-game losing streak as they host the Kansas City Royals. Washington has struggled in tight games, with a 14-23 record in one-run contests, and will look to Patrick Corbin to help stop their skid. Corbin has endured a tough season with a 5.58 ERA and has allowed plenty of baserunners with a 1.51 WHIP.

Meanwhile, the Royals have had a solid season overall and are trying to finish strong. Kansas City's offense, despite recent struggles, ranks third in the AL with a .250 team batting average. Michael Wacha has been one of the Royals' most consistent pitchers, and his 3.28 ERA shows he’s capable of keeping the Nationals' bats in check.

Top Performers:

  • Nationals:

    • Luis Garcia: Leading the Nationals with a .278 batting average, along with 16 home runs and 65 RBIs.

    • Jose Tena: Has been 9-for-38 over his last 10 games, though the Nationals' offense has largely struggled.

  • Royals:

    • Salvador Perez: A force in the Royals’ lineup with 27 home runs and 103 RBIs, hitting .272 on the season.

    • Bobby Witt Jr.: Heating up with 12 hits in his last 34 at-bats, including three doubles and two homers.

Last 10 Games:

  • Nationals: 2-8, .202 batting average, 4.39 ERA, outscored by 27 runs.

  • Royals: 3-7, .205 batting average, 2.97 ERA, outscored by 10 runs.

Best Bet:

  • Royals -1.5 (-105): With Michael Wacha on the mound and the Nationals struggling offensively, the Royals are positioned to cover the spread. Wacha's consistency gives Kansas City the edge against Corbin’s high ERA.

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Tampa Bay Rays (78-80) vs. Detroit Tigers (84-74)

Location: Detroit; Thursday, 1:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Rays: Tyler Alexander (6-5, 5.35 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 84 strikeouts)

  • Tigers: Reese Olson (4-8, 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 98 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Tigers -162, Rays +137

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -110, Under -110)

  • Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-155), Tigers -1.5 (+130)

Game Breakdown:

The Detroit Tigers come into this game riding a three-game home winning streak and hold a 4-1 advantage in the season series against the Tampa Bay Rays. Detroit's offense has been explosive when they hit for power, boasting a 36-5 record in games where they’ve hit two or more home runs.

The Tigers will send Reese Olson to the mound. Olson has been one of Detroit's more effective starters this season, posting a solid 3.49 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He's looking to continue his strong performance against a Rays team that has struggled offensively in recent games, despite their respectable overall record.

Tyler Alexander will take the mound for the Rays. While his 5.35 ERA shows his inconsistency, the Rays still have a chance if they can generate enough offense. Tampa Bay has a 52-11 record when out-hitting their opponents, but their recent .215 team batting average over the past 10 games shows a lack of run production.

Top Performers:

  • Tigers:

    • Riley Greene leads Detroit with a .264 batting average, along with 26 doubles, six triples, and 24 home runs.

    • Parker Meadows has been hot lately, going 10-for-41 with two home runs over his last 10 games.

  • Rays:

    • Christopher Morel has been one of Tampa's power threats, with 21 home runs, 11 doubles, and three triples.

    • Jonathan Aranda is 8-for-31 with three home runs in the last 10 games, showing some late-season pop.

Last 10 Games:

  • Tigers: 8-2, .234 batting average, 3.07 ERA, outscored opponents by nine runs.

  • Rays: 5-5, .215 batting average, 2.83 ERA, outscored by five runs.

Best Bet:

  • Tigers -1.5 (+130): With Olson on the mound and Detroit’s recent form, the Tigers have the advantage in this matchup. They’ve been solid at home and are riding a hot streak.

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Los Angeles Angels (63-95) vs. Chicago White Sox (38-120)

Location: Chicago; Thursday, 2:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Angels: Tyler Anderson (10-14, 3.70 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 140 strikeouts)

  • White Sox: Chris Flexen (2-15, 5.15 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 116 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Angels -120, White Sox +101

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

  • Run Line: Angels -1.5 (+140), White Sox +1.5 (-165)

Game Breakdown:

The Chicago White Sox aim to extend their four-game home winning streak as they host the Los Angeles Angels. Despite their rough season with a 38-120 record, the White Sox have managed to win three of their five games against the Angels this year.

Chris Flexen will take the mound for the White Sox. Although Flexen has struggled this season with a 5.15 ERA, the White Sox offense has found some rhythm lately, especially with Lenyn Sosa heating up, hitting 14-for-33 with three home runs in his last 10 games.

On the other side, Tyler Anderson has been more consistent for the Angels, with a 3.70 ERA and a solid 1.28 WHIP. The Angels, however, have struggled both on the road and overall, going 31-49 away from home. Offensively, Nolan Schanuel leads the Angels with a .250 batting average and a balanced stat line, but their lineup has been inconsistent as of late.

Top Performers:

  • White Sox:

    • Andrew Vaughn leads with a .244 batting average, contributing 30 doubles, 19 home runs, and a triple.

    • Lenyn Sosa has been productive, going 14-for-33 with three home runs and five RBI in his last 10 games.

  • Angels:

    • Nolan Schanuel leads the team with a .250 batting average and has shown patience at the plate with 68 walks.

    • Eric Wagaman has been hitting well recently, going 13-for-45 with two home runs and seven RBI over his last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • White Sox: 5-5, .223 batting average, 3.46 ERA, outscored by five runs.

  • Angels: 3-7, .241 batting average, 4.50 ERA, outscored by 11 runs.

Best Bet:

  • Under 7.5 (-105): Both teams have struggled offensively, and with Anderson pitching well for the Angels and Flexen looking to bounce back, this could be a low-scoring affair.

_____________

St. Louis Cardinals (81-77) vs. Colorado Rockies (60-98)

Location: Denver; Thursday, 3:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Cardinals: Kyle Gibson (8-8, 4.13 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 146 strikeouts)

  • Rockies: Kyle Freeland (5-8, 4.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 81 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Cardinals -129, Rockies +109

  • Over/Under: 10.5 (Over -110, Under -110)

  • Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (+125), Rockies +1.5 (-150)

Game Breakdown:

The St. Louis Cardinals look to continue their hot streak with a fifth consecutive win as they take on the Colorado Rockies. With the season nearing its end, the Cardinals are pushing to finish strong while the Rockies aim to salvage a disappointing season.

Kyle Gibson takes the mound for St. Louis, bringing a 4.13 ERA and 146 strikeouts into the game. He's been reliable for the Cardinals, and their bullpen has supported the team's recent success, especially with a strong 2.73 ERA over the last 10 games.

The Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland, whose 4.95 ERA reflects the challenges he’s faced this season. Playing at Coors Field, which is notoriously hitter-friendly, could put added pressure on Freeland against a Cardinals lineup capable of capitalizing on offensive opportunities.

Top Performers:

  • Rockies:

    • Ezequiel Tovar has had a solid season, batting .265 with 44 doubles, 25 home runs, and 74 RBI.

    • Charlie Blackmon has been in good form recently, going 11-for-33 with three doubles, a triple, and two home runs in his last 10 games.

  • Cardinals:

    • Brendan Donovan has been productive, posting 33 doubles, 13 home runs, and 69 RBI.

    • Masyn Winn is also heating up, with nine hits, including two home runs, over the past 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Rockies: 4-6, .228 batting average, 4.96 ERA, outscored by eight runs.

  • Cardinals: 7-3, .244 batting average, 2.73 ERA, outscored opponents by 14 runs.

Best Bet:

  • Cardinals Moneyline (-129): With the Cardinals riding a four-game win streak and a pitching edge with Gibson over Freeland, St. Louis is the safer bet in this matchup. The Rockies have struggled at home and will be facing a team with momentum on their side.

_______________

Texas Rangers (75-83) vs. Oakland Athletics (68-90)

Location: Oakland, California; Thursday, 3:37 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Rangers: Kumar Rocker (0-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 12 strikeouts)

  • Athletics: J.T. Ginn (0-1, 4.40 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 27 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Athletics -123, Rangers +103

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -130, Under +110)

  • Run Line: Rangers -1.5 (+150), Athletics +1.5 (-180)

Game Breakdown:

The Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics both look to secure a series win with a victory on Thursday. Both teams are out of playoff contention but will aim to finish the season on a high note.

Kumar Rocker takes the mound for the Rangers. Rocker has shown potential with a 2.57 ERA but has a high WHIP of 1.57, indicating struggles with control. The Rangers, while struggling on the road (31-46), have a chance to capitalize on the Athletics' struggles.

For Oakland, J.T. Ginn will look to build off his 4.40 ERA. The Athletics have been better at home, but their recent form (3-7 in the last 10 games) and their 5.63 team ERA may leave them vulnerable to the Rangers' power hitters.

Top Performers:

  • Athletics:

    • Brent Rooker is having an impressive season, batting .296 with 38 home runs and 110 RBI.

    • Lawrence Butler has been productive lately, going 10-for-38 with a home run in the last 10 games.

  • Rangers:

    • Marcus Semien has been solid with 22 home runs and 73 RBI.

    • Leody Taveras has been hot recently, hitting three home runs and driving in five RBI in his last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Athletics: 3-7, .222 batting average, 5.63 ERA, outscored by 24 runs.

  • Rangers: 4-6, .229 batting average, 4.85 ERA, outscored by 11 runs.

Best Bet:

  • Over 7.5 (-130): With both teams struggling on the mound, this game could easily surpass the 7.5 run line.

_______________

Baltimore Orioles (88-70) vs. New York Yankees (92-66)

Location: New York; Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Orioles: Corbin Burnes (15-8, 2.95 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 172 strikeouts)

  • Yankees: Gerrit Cole (7-5, 3.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 94 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Yankees -144, Orioles +123

  • Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

  • Run Line: Orioles +1.5 (-160), Yankees -1.5 (+135)

Game Breakdown:

The Baltimore Orioles aim to sweep the three-game series against the New York Yankees. This game features two strong pitchers, with Corbin Burnes of the Orioles and Gerrit Cole of the Yankees squaring off.

The Yankees, with a strong 42-35 home record and a league-leading 232 home runs, will look to defend their top spot in the AL East. Gerrit Cole has had a solid season and will be key to the Yankees' effort to avoid the sweep.

The Orioles have been strong on the road with a 44-33 record. Burnes has been one of the AL's most consistent pitchers, maintaining a 2.95 ERA. The Orioles also boast an impressive record (57-12) in games where they hit at least two home runs, making power a focal point of their offense.

Top Performers:

  • Yankees:

    • Juan Soto leads the team, hitting .288 with 41 home runs and 108 RBI.

    • Gleyber Torres is hitting 16-for-47 with two doubles and two home runs over the past 10 games.

  • Orioles:

    • Adley Rutschman has contributed with 20 doubles, 19 home runs, and 77 RBI.

    • Colton Cowser has been hot recently, hitting 11-for-36 with three doubles and three home runs over the past 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Yankees: 6-4, .239 batting average, 3.16 ERA, outscored opponents by 17 runs.

  • Orioles: 5-5, .252 batting average, 4.30 ERA, outscored by three runs.

Best Bet:

  • Yankees Moneyline (-144): With Cole on the mound and playing at home, the Yankees have a strong chance to avoid the sweep.

______________

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

Miami Marlins (58-100) vs. Minnesota Twins (82-76)

Location: Minneapolis; Thursday, 7:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

  • Marlins: Valente Bellozo (3-4, 3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 42 strikeouts)

  • Twins: David Festa (2-6, 4.80 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 72 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Twins -249, Marlins +203

  • Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

  • Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-105), Twins -1.5 (-115)

Game Breakdown:

The Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins will meet in the series finale on Thursday, with the three-game series tied at 1-1. David Festa will take the mound for the Twins, looking to rebound from his 4.80 ERA and inconsistent season. The Twins have a solid 43-34 home record and have an impressive on-base percentage of .316, ranking fourth in the AL.

For the Marlins, Valente Bellozo will be the starting pitcher, sporting a respectable 3.82 ERA. Miami has struggled mightily on the road with a 28-49 record and will be looking to close the series on a high note despite their 58-100 overall record. However, Miami tends to perform well when out-hitting their opponents, with a strong 42-21 record in such games.

Top Performers:

  • Twins:

    • Willi Castro is hitting .250 with 31 doubles, five triples, and 12 home runs.

    • Byron Buxton has been hot recently, going 12-for-39 with two home runs and six RBI over the last 10 games.

  • Marlins:

    • Jesus Sanchez leads the Marlins with 24 doubles, 18 home runs, and 63 RBI while hitting .247.

    • Otto Lopez is performing well, hitting 13-for-35 with two doubles and a home run in his last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

  • Twins: 4-6, .227 batting average, 3.79 ERA, outscored by two runs.

  • Marlins: 3-7, .258 batting average, 6.31 ERA, outscored by 28 runs.

Best Bet:

  • Twins -1.5 (-115): With Minnesota playing well at home and facing a struggling Miami team, the Twins have the edge in this matchup.