Best Bets - 9/25/2024

Good Morning,

We’ve got more baseball bets going today. After looking at the simulations and projections I am hopeful we have a good edge today and have found some good bets!

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Onto the bets!

Seattle Mariners (81-77) vs. Houston Astros (86-72)

Location: Houston, Wednesday, 2:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Mariners: George Kirby (13-11, 3.60 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 173 strikeouts)

• Astros: Yusei Kikuchi (9-9, 4.19 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 198 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Astros -132, Mariners +112

• Over/Under: 6.5 (Over -135, Under +115)

• Run Line: Mariners -1.5 (+135), Astros +1.5 (-160)

Game Breakdown:

The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros will square off in a crucial AL West matchup. The Astros hold a slim division lead but will look to extend that at home, where they have a solid 46-34 record. However, they've struggled in close games with a 17-27 record in one-run contests.

The Mariners have been much stronger at keeping the ball in the park, going 39-18 in games where they did not allow a home run. This could bode well against the Astros’ power hitters.

George Kirby will take the mound for the Mariners. He’s had a steady season with a 3.60 ERA and an impressive 1.08 WHIP, making him tough to hit. Yusei Kikuchi, formerly of the Mariners, will pitch for the Astros, carrying a higher 4.19 ERA but almost 200 strikeouts on the season.

Top Performers:

• Astros:

  • Jose Altuve: .293 average, 29 doubles, 20 home runs, 65 RBI

  • Kyle Tucker: 13-for-34, 1 double, 4 home runs in his last 10 games

• Mariners:

  • Julio Rodriguez: .275 average, 17 doubles, 19 home runs

  • Victor Robles: 14-for-36, 4 RBI over the last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Astros: 6-4, .256 batting average, 4.45 ERA, outscored opponents by two runs

• Mariners: 6-4, .289 batting average, 3.43 ERA, outscored opponents by 12 runs

Best Bet:

• Over 6.5 (-135): With both teams swinging the bat well recently and the Mariners’ offense heating up (.289 average over the last 10 games), expect enough scoring to hit the over, especially in the hitter-friendly environment of Houston’s Minute Maid Park.

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Chicago Cubs (81-77) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (93-65)

Location: Philadelphia; Wednesday, 6:05 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Cubs: Javier Assad (7-5, 3.34 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 121 strikeouts)

• Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (11-9, 3.25 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 149 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Phillies -187, Cubs +157

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over +110, Under -130)

• Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-130), Phillies -1.5 (+110)

Game Breakdown:

The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to clinch a series win against the Chicago Cubs. The Phillies have been dominant at home with a 53-27 record and a stellar 48-14 record when preventing home runs. With a 93-65 overall record, Philadelphia has already secured a playoff spot, but they're still fighting for positioning.

The Cubs, meanwhile, are 39-41 on the road and are battling to stay in playoff contention. With a collective .318 on-base percentage, they are seventh in the NL. They’ll rely on Javier Assad, who’s been consistent this season with a 3.34 ERA, though his 1.37 WHIP shows he allows his share of baserunners.

For the Phillies, Cristopher Sanchez has been solid with a 3.25 ERA and 149 strikeouts, giving the edge to Philadelphia’s pitching staff.

Top Performers:

• Phillies:

  • Bryce Harper: 42 doubles, 30 home runs, 87 RBI

  • Kyle Schwarber: 11-for-43 with a double, three home runs, and seven RBI over the last 10 games

• Cubs:

  • Ian Happ: 25 home runs, .450 slugging percentage

  • Michael Busch: 7-for-31 with three home runs and five RBI over the last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Phillies: 4-6, .247 batting average, 4.44 ERA, even run differential

• Cubs: 6-4, .280 batting average, 3.44 ERA, outscored opponents by 14 runs

Best Bet:

• Under 8.5 (-130): Both teams have quality starting pitchers, and with the Cubs’ pitching stabilizing in recent games (3.44 ERA over the last 10 games), expect a low-scoring affair.

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Cincinnati Reds (76-82) vs. Cleveland Guardians (91-67)

Location: Cleveland; Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Reds: Jakob Junis (4-0, 2.61 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 48 strikeouts)

• Guardians: Joey Cantillo (2-3, 4.63 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 37 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Guardians -147, Reds +123

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

• Run Line: Reds +1.5 (-175), Guardians -1.5 (+145)

Game Breakdown:

The Cleveland Guardians are aiming to extend their three-game home winning streak as they face the Cincinnati Reds. The Guardians have been strong at home with a 49-28 record and are a balanced team with 182 home runs, placing them sixth in the AL.

The Reds, at 76-82 overall and 37-40 on the road, have struggled with consistency, especially when allowing home runs. With a 43-70 record when giving up at least one home run, keeping Cleveland's bats in check will be critical.

On the mound for the Guardians is Joey Cantillo, who has struggled at times with a 4.63 ERA, but he'll face Jakob Junis, who has been excellent for the Reds, boasting a 2.61 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP.

Top Performers:

• Guardians:

  • Jose Ramirez: 37 doubles, a triple, 37 home runs, hitting .275

  • Lane Thomas: 7-for-35 with four home runs in the last 10 games

• Reds:

  • Elly De La Cruz: 25 home runs, .473 slugging percentage

  • TJ Friedl: 11-for-33 with two home runs and seven RBI in the last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Guardians: 7-3, .248 batting average, 1.60 ERA, outscored opponents by 14 runs

• Reds: 5-5, .246 batting average, 5.32 ERA, outscored by six runs

Best Bet:

• Under 7.5 (+100): With Junis’ strong pitching and Cleveland’s pitching dominance over their last 10 games (1.60 ERA), this game could see fewer runs than expected.

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