Best Bets - 9/20/2024

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Good Morning!

We had another fantastic day betting baseball. 5-2 on the evening and our baseball model just keeps getting better and better.

I’ve got another round of baseball bets cooked up for you today.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (72-81) vs. Cincinnati Reds (74-80)

Location: Cincinnati; Friday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Pirates: Mitch Keller (11-10, 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 159 strikeouts)

• Reds: Nick Martinez (9-6, 3.37 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 104 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Reds -124, Pirates +105

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -130, Under +110)

• Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-190), Reds -1.5 (+160)

Game Breakdown:

The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates kick off a three-game series on Friday. Cincinnati has struggled at home this season with a 37-41 record but has performed well when their offense gets going, with a 54-28 record in games when they record eight or more hits. The Reds will send Nick Martinez to the mound, who has been a solid presence with a 3.37 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 104 strikeouts.

The Pirates come in with a 72-81 overall record and a 34-41 mark on the road. Mitch Keller, their ace for much of the season, will take the ball. Despite an 11-10 record, Keller has been consistent with a 3.87 ERA and 159 strikeouts. Pittsburgh has struggled when giving up the long ball, with a 33-63 record in games when they allow a home run.

Top Performers:

• Reds:

  • Elly De La Cruz: 67 extra-base hits (34 doubles, nine triples, 24 home runs)

  • TJ Friedl: 11-for-35 with two home runs and eight RBI over the last 10 games

• Pirates:

  • Bryan Reynolds: 29 doubles, three triples, 22 home runs, .280 AVG

  • Andrew McCutchen: 8-for-33 with three doubles and two home runs in his last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Reds: 5-5, .240 batting average, 4.86 ERA, outscored by 12 runs

• Pirates: 5-5, .239 batting average, 3.72 ERA, outscored by 13 runs

Best Bet:

• Under 8.5 (+110):

With two solid pitchers in Mitch Keller and Nick Martinez, this matchup could be a lower-scoring affair. Keller's consistency and Martinez's ability to limit baserunners give this game a good chance to stay under the 8.5 total.

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Detroit Tigers (80-73) vs. Baltimore Orioles (85-68)

Location: Baltimore; Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Tigers: Keider Montero (6-6, 4.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 66 strikeouts)

• Orioles: Corbin Burnes (14-8, 3.06 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 164 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Orioles -198, Tigers +164

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

• Run Line: Tigers +1.5 (-125), Orioles -1.5 (+105)

Game Breakdown:

The Detroit Tigers are riding a five-game road winning streak as they head into Baltimore to face the Orioles. Detroit has quietly posted a strong road record at 41-37 and boasts the third-best team ERA in the majors at 3.62. Keider Montero will start for the Tigers and will look to hold down a Baltimore lineup that has gone 60-9 when scoring five or more runs this season.

The Orioles, who are 43-35 at home, will send ace Corbin Burnes to the mound. Burnes has been stellar throughout the season, sporting a 14-8 record with a 3.06 ERA and 164 strikeouts. Despite their strong season, Baltimore has struggled recently, going 3-7 over their last 10 games while batting just .201 as a team.

Top Performers:

• Orioles:

  • Gunnar Henderson: 28 doubles, seven triples, 37 home runs, 87 RBI

  • Anthony Santander: 7-for-37 with a double, three home runs, six RBI in his last 10 games

• Tigers:

  • Riley Greene: 25 doubles, six triples, 24 home runs

  • Parker Meadows: 13-for-40 with two doubles, a triple, and two home runs in his last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Orioles: 3-7, .201 batting average, 4.44 ERA, outscored by 22 runs

• Tigers: 8-2, .266 batting average, 2.37 ERA, outscored opponents by 26 runs

Best Bet:

• Under 7.5 (-105):

With Corbin Burnes on the mound for the Orioles and the Tigers having a strong team ERA, this game could be a low-scoring affair. Detroit’s pitching has been sharp during their road streak, and Baltimore’s recent offensive struggles make the under a strong play.

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Atlanta Braves (83-70) vs. Miami Marlins (56-97)

Location: Miami; Friday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Braves: Charlie Morton (8-8, 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 161 strikeouts)

• Marlins: Valente Bellozo (2-4, 3.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 39 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Braves -205, Marlins +169

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

• Run Line: Braves -1.5 (-125), Marlins +1.5 (+105)

Game Breakdown:

The Atlanta Braves are looking to solidify their hold in the NL East as they begin a three-game series against the struggling Miami Marlins. Atlanta has been solid on the road with a 41-37 record and ranks 10th in MLB with a .414 slugging percentage. The Braves have also dominated the season series so far, leading 7-3.

The Marlins have had a tough season, posting a 29-49 record at home. Their biggest issue has been pitching, as Miami has gone 30-76 in games when they’ve allowed a home run. Valente Bellozo will take the mound, looking to slow down a potent Braves lineup.

Top Performers:

• Marlins:

  • Jesus Sanchez: .247 batting average, 24 doubles, 17 home runs

  • Otto Lopez: 13-for-37 with two home runs and seven RBI in his last 10 games

• Braves:

  • Marcell Ozuna: 31 doubles, 38 home runs

  • Matt Olson: 15-for-36 with five doubles and three home runs in his last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Marlins: 2-8, .246 batting average, 6.21 ERA, outscored by 27 runs

• Braves: 5-5, .261 batting average, 3.68 ERA, outscored opponents by 21 runs

Best Bet:

• Braves -1.5 (-125):

With Charlie Morton on the mound and Atlanta's offense in good form, the Braves are likely to cover the run line against a struggling Marlins team. The Braves have outperformed Miami in head-to-head matchups this season, and Morton’s experience should give them the edge.

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Minnesota Twins (80-73) vs. Boston Red Sox (76-77)

Location: Boston; Friday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Twins: David Festa (2-6, 5.07 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 66 strikeouts)

• Red Sox: Richard Fitts (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Twins -113, Red Sox -107

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -130, Under +110)

• Run Line: Twins -1.5 (+140), Red Sox +1.5 (-165)

Game Breakdown:

The Boston Red Sox are hosting the Minnesota Twins to kick off a three-game series. Boston is aiming to get back to .500 after sitting at 76-77 overall, including a 35-40 record at home. One of Boston's strengths this season has been their performance when outhitting opponents, with a 56-11 record in those games.

Minnesota comes in with an 80-73 record but has been inconsistent on the road, sitting at 38-40. Their pitching has been strong when they avoid giving up home runs, boasting a 30-12 record in those situations.

This is the fourth meeting between these two clubs this season, so they'll be familiar with each other as the series gets underway.

Top Performers:

• Red Sox:

  • Jarren Duran: 45 doubles, 13 triples, 21 home runs, 73 RBI

  • Tyler O'Neill: 6-for-36, two doubles, four home runs, eight RBI over the last 10 games

• Twins:

  • Carlos Santana: 25 doubles, 22 home runs

  • Kyle Farmer: 11-for-27, three doubles, two home runs over the last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Red Sox: 4-6, .211 batting average, 3.21 ERA, outscored opponents by four runs

• Twins: 4-6, .226 batting average, 4.34 ERA, outscored by four runs

Best Bet:

• Twins -113: Given how close these two teams are, the Twins' slight edge on the mound with Festa could help them to get the win in a tightly contested game.

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Philadelphia Phillies (91-62) vs. New York Mets (85-68)

Location: New York; Friday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (10-9, 3.24 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 142 strikeouts)

• Mets: David Peterson (9-2, 2.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 89 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Phillies -110, Mets -110

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over +100, Under -120)

• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+145), Mets +1.5 (-175)

Game Breakdown:

The New York Mets look to extend their four-game home win streak as they face the Philadelphia Phillies in this crucial late-season matchup. The Mets have performed well at home, holding a 44-34 record, and their pitching has been a strong point, with a collective ERA of 3.91, ranking sixth in the NL. They come in hot with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games.

Meanwhile, the Phillies continue to dominate the NL East with a 91-62 record. Though they're slightly above .500 on the road (39-36), they've been lethal offensively in games where they get eight or more hits, with a 66-24 record in such situations. The Phillies hold a slight edge in the season series against the Mets, leading 6-4.

Top Performers:

• Mets:

  • Francisco Lindor: 39 doubles, a triple, 31 home runs

  • Jose Iglesias: 16-for-39 with a double in the last 10 games

• Phillies:

  • Trea Turner: .298 batting average, 23 doubles, 19 home runs

  • Bryce Harper: 12-for-37 with three home runs and seven RBI over the past 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Mets: 7-3, .258 batting average, 2.76 ERA, outscored opponents by 30 runs

• Phillies: 6-4, .229 batting average, 4.34 ERA, outscored by three runs

Best Bet:

• Under 7.5 (-120): With both pitchers in solid form and the Mets’ strong home pitching, a low-scoring game could be the best play here.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (85-68) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (88-65)

Location: Milwaukee; Friday, 8:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (12-6, 3.61 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 140 strikeouts)

• Brewers: Colin Rea (12-5, 4.14 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 124 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks -127, Brewers +106

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -125, Under +105)

• Run Line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+135), Brewers +1.5 (-160)

Game Breakdown:

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers face off for the second game of their four-game series, with Arizona holding a 1-0 lead so far. Milwaukee has performed well at home with a 44-31 record, and their .327 team on-base percentage ranks third in the National League.

Arizona has also excelled on the road with a 43-35 record, and their hitters have a combined .441 slugging percentage, second in the NL. The season series is tied 2-2 heading into this matchup, so this game is critical for both teams.

Top Performers:

• Brewers:

  • William Contreras: Batting .280, 37 doubles, two triples, 22 home runs, 73 walks, 90 RBI

  • Jackson Chourio: 10-for-41 with two home runs and eight RBI over the last 10 games

• Diamondbacks:

  • Ketel Marte: Batting .289, 21 doubles, two triples, 32 home runs

  • Eugenio Suarez: 15-for-39 with three home runs and nine RBI over the last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Brewers: 6-4, .226 batting average, 4.35 ERA, outscored by three runs

• Diamondbacks: 6-4, .305 batting average, 5.05 ERA, outscored opponents by 17 runs

Best Bet:

• Diamondbacks Moneyline (-127): Zac Gallen’s solid track record combined with Arizona’s strong offensive performance makes them a good bet in this matchup.

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New York Yankees (89-64) vs. Oakland Athletics (67-86)

Location: Oakland, California; Friday, 9:40 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Yankees: Gerrit Cole (6-5, 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 87 strikeouts)

• Athletics: J.T. Ginn (0-1, 4.94 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 23 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Yankees -198, Athletics +165

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over +100, Under -120)

• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (-120), Athletics +1.5 (+100)

Game Breakdown:

The Oakland Athletics will host the New York Yankees in a three-game series opener. Oakland has struggled overall but is slightly better at home, holding a 36-39 record at the Oakland Coliseum. Their hitters rank 10th in the AL with a .304 on-base percentage.

The Yankees, who are first in the AL East, have been strong on the road with a 47-31 record. Their pitching staff has posted a collective 3.73 ERA, ranking seventh in MLB. This game marks the fifth time the two teams have faced off this season, with the season series tied 2-2.

Top Performers:

• Athletics:

  • Brent Rooker: Batting .304 with 25 doubles, two triples, and 38 home runs.

  • Shea Langeliers: 7-for-33 with three home runs over the last 10 games.

• Yankees:

  • Aaron Judge: 35 doubles, one triple, 53 home runs, 136 RBI.

  • Gleyber Torres: 13-for-44 with a double, two home runs, and five RBI over the last 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

• Athletics: 5-5, .248 batting average, 4.55 ERA, outscored by 13 runs.

• Yankees: 7-3, .212 batting average, 2.61 ERA, outscored opponents by 10 runs.

Best Bet:

• Yankees -1.5 (-120): With Gerrit Cole on the mound and the Yankees' pitching strength, the Yankees have a solid chance to cover the run line against the struggling Athletics.