Best Bets - 9/19/2024

Good Morning,

Hope you all got in on the baseball action yesterday. We went a nice 5-2 on the day! Our model has really become super sharp on baseball. It’s a shame to see the season wind down. We will maximize it while we can though.

Here’s what I’ve got for you today:

San Francisco Giants (74-78) vs. Baltimore Orioles (84-68)

Location: Baltimore; Thursday, 1:05 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Giants: Logan Webb (12-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 161 strikeouts)

• Orioles: Zach Eflin (10-9, 3.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 128 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Orioles -139, Giants +118

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over +105, Under -125)

• Run Line: Giants +1.5 (-165), Orioles -1.5 (+140)

Game Breakdown:

The Baltimore Orioles will look to end a three-game losing streak as they host the San Francisco Giants. The Orioles have been struggling recently, going 2-8 in their last 10 games with a .190 team batting average. However, they hold a respectable 42-35 record at home. Baltimore's pitching staff has been a relative strength with a team ERA of 3.96, ranking eighth in the AL.

The Giants, on the other hand, are trying to stay competitive as they near the end of their season. Logan Webb will take the mound for San Francisco, boasting a 12-10 record and a 3.53 ERA. Webb has been a reliable starter, and the Giants will lean on him to keep the Orioles' offense in check. The Giants have been mediocre on the road with a 33-41 record, but they have been performing slightly better recently, going 5-5 in their last 10 games with a solid 3.16 ERA.

Top Performers:

• Orioles:

  • Anthony Santander: 24 doubles, 2 triples, 41 HRs

  • Cedric Mullins: 7-for-34, 3 HRs, 6 RBIs in the last 10 games

• Giants:

  • Heliot Ramos: .266 batting average, 21 doubles, 21 HRs

  • Tyler Fitzgerald: 10-for-37, 1 RBI in the last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Orioles: 2-8, .190 batting average, 4.75 ERA, outscored by 30 runs

• Giants: 5-5, .223 batting average, 3.16 ERA, outscored opponents by nine runs

Best Bet:

• Under 7.5 Runs (-125):

With both teams sending solid starters to the mound and considering the Orioles' recent offensive struggles (.190 batting average over the last 10 games), this matchup leans toward a low-scoring game. Logan Webb and Zach Eflin have comparable ERAs, suggesting that runs may come at a premium. The Giants' offense hasn't been explosive either, hitting .223 in their last 10 games. Therefore, the under 7.5 runs at -125 offers a strong value in this game.

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Atlanta Braves (82-70) vs. Cincinnati Reds (74-79)

Location: Cincinnati; Thursday, 1:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Braves: Chris Sale (17-3, 2.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 219 strikeouts)

• Reds: Julian Aguiar (2-0, 4.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 15 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Braves -211, Reds +175

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -130, Under +110)

• Run Line: Braves -2.5 (+110), Reds +2.5 (-130)

Game Breakdown:

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves in the final game of their three-game series, with the series currently tied. Chris Sale takes the mound for the Braves with an impressive 17-3 record and a stellar 2.35 ERA, indicating that Atlanta has a significant pitching advantage in this matchup. The Braves have performed well both at home and on the road, boasting a 40-37 away record and an overall mark of 82-70. Notably, Atlanta is highly effective when preventing home runs, holding a 52-14 record in games where they did not allow one.

Julian Aguiar will start for the Reds, who come into this game with a 4.88 ERA. The Reds have hit 169 total home runs this season, ranking eighth in the NL, but will need to find consistency to overcome Sale and the Braves. The Reds have led the season series 4-1 against the Braves, so they have found success against Atlanta this season.

Top Performers:

• Reds:

  • Elly De La Cruz: 34 doubles, 9 triples, 24 HRs

  • Spencer Steer: 7-for-36 with 3 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR, 5 RBI over the last 10 games

• Braves:

  • Marcell Ozuna: 30 doubles, 38 HRs

  • Matt Olson: 13-for-35 with 5 doubles, 1 HR, 12 RBI over the last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Reds: 6-4, .234 batting average, 3.41 ERA, outscored opponents by two runs

• Braves: 5-5, .236 batting average, 3.30 ERA, outscored opponents by 10 runs

Best Bet:

• Braves -2.5 (+110):

With Chris Sale's dominant performance throughout the season (2.35 ERA, 219 strikeouts), the Braves have a strong chance of winning this game by more than one run. Sale's ability to keep the ball in the park (52-14 in games without allowing a homer) aligns well with Atlanta's strength in such situations. Although the Reds have had a slight edge in the season series, the pitching mismatch in this game makes the Braves a solid bet to win comfortably. Therefore, taking the Braves on the -2.5 run line at +110 offers good value.

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New York Yankees (89-63) vs. Seattle Mariners (77-75)

Location: Seattle; Thursday, 4:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Matchup:

• Yankees: Clarke Schmidt (5-3, 2.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 74 strikeouts)

• Mariners: Logan Gilbert (7-11, 3.24 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 198 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Yankees -120, Mariners +101

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over +105, Under -125)

• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+160), Mariners +1.5 (-190)

Game Breakdown:

The Yankees are looking to extend their three-game winning streak against the Mariners. New York has been strong on the road this season with a 47-30 record and leads the American League in home runs with 222. Clarke Schmidt, with a 2.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, will start for the Yankees. Despite Schmidt's moderate win-loss record, his ERA and WHIP suggest he can effectively limit the Mariners' offense.

Logan Gilbert will start for the Mariners, carrying a solid 3.24 ERA and 198 strikeouts this season. Gilbert has been a workhorse for Seattle, and his low WHIP (0.89) indicates he's been good at keeping runners off the bases. The Mariners have been strong at home (45-32) and have a 44-20 record in games where they recorded eight or more hits. However, they face a Yankees team that has been playing well defensively and has shown power at the plate.

Top Performers:

• Mariners:

  • Cal Raleigh: 30 home runs, .424 slugging percentage

  • Victor Robles: 17-for-32 with five doubles and four RBI over the past 10 games

• Yankees:

  • Jazz Chisholm: 19 doubles, 4 triples, 22 HRs, 66 RBI

  • Gleyber Torres: 14-for-44 with a double and two home runs over the last 10 games

Last 10 Games:

• Mariners: 5-5, .264 batting average, 3.70 ERA, outscored opponents by one run

• Yankees: 7-3, .213 batting average, 2.52 ERA, outscored opponents by 10 runs

Best Bet:

• Under 7.5 Runs (-125):

Both starting pitchers have performed well this season, with Schmidt carrying a 2.41 ERA and Gilbert not far behind at 3.24. Given the relatively low offensive production by the Yankees in their last 10 games (.213 batting average) and the Mariners' ability to limit runs (3.70 ERA over the past 10 games), this matchup has the potential to be a low-scoring affair. Taking the under at 7.5 runs (-125) looks promising, as both teams might struggle to generate enough offense against quality pitching.

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