Best Bets - 8-8-2024 - New Format!

August 08, 2024

Good Morning!

I wanted to try a little something different today for everyone. Your feedback is very much welcomed. If you like this email better please let me know.

I usually keep these emails short and sweet for you all. However, I am going to give you the prediction of every MLB game today along with the breakdown and bet that my A.I. has given me. This will be a longer email, but I hope it adds more value.

This gives a bet on every game based on the data along with a breakdown of why that bet.

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Game Previews:

Game Overview

  • San Francisco Giants:

    • Current Record: 58-58

    • Road Record: 25-35

    • Key Stat: The Giants have a strong record of 40-5 when they out-hit their opponents.

    • Recent Form: 7-3 in their last 10 games with a 3.38 ERA.

  • Washington Nationals:

    • Current Record: 52-63

    • Home Record: 26-30

    • Key Stat: The Nationals have a good record of 37-14 when scoring at least five runs.

    • Recent Form: 3-7 in their last 10 games with a 6.59 ERA.

Pitching Matchup

  • Giants’ Pitcher: Kyle Harrison

    • Record: 6-5

    • ERA: 4.09

    • WHIP: 1.30

    • Strikeouts: 94

  • Nationals’ Pitcher: DJ Herz

    • Record: 2-4

    • ERA: 4.27

    • WHIP: 1.25

    • Strikeouts: 59

Betting Lines

  • Moneyline:

    • Giants: -127

    • Nationals: +107

  • Run Line:

    • Giants -1.5: +135

    • Nationals +1.5: -160

  • Over/Under:

    • Over 8.5: -125

    • Under 8.5: +105

Hypothetical Betting Suggestions

Favorite Bet: Over 8.5 (-125)

  • Rationale:

    • The Nationals have struggled with a high team ERA of 6.59 in their last 10 games, allowing many runs. Both teams have shown potential for scoring, especially if the Nationals can reach their threshold of scoring five or more runs. Given these factors, the over is a strong possibility.

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Game Overview

  • Milwaukee Brewers:

    • Current Record: 64-49

    • Road Record: 33-28

    • Key Stat: Brewers hitters have the highest collective on-base percentage in the NL at .333.

    • Recent Form: 5-5 in their last 10 games with a 3.99 ERA.

  • Atlanta Braves:

    • Current Record: 60-53

    • Home Record: 32-25

    • Key Stat: The Braves have a 40-10 record when they score five or more runs.

    • Recent Form: 5-5 in their last 10 games with a 4.45 ERA and outscored by seven runs.

Pitching Matchup

  • Brewers’ Pitcher: Frankie Montas

    • Record: 5-8

    • ERA: 5.03

    • WHIP: 1.45

    • Strikeouts: 83

  • Braves’ Pitcher: Charlie Morton

    • Record: 6-6

    • ERA: 4.02

    • WHIP: 1.25

    • Strikeouts: 109

Betting Lines

  • Moneyline:

    • Braves: -143

    • Brewers: +120

  • Run Line:

    • Brewers +1.5: -165

    • Braves -1.5: +140

  • Over/Under:

    • Over 9.5: +110

    • Under 9.5: -130

      Hypothetical Betting Suggestions

Favorite Bet: Brewers +1.5 (-165)

  • Rationale:

    • Recent Performance: Both teams have been inconsistent recently, with identical 5-5 records over the last 10 games. However, the Brewers have shown a slightly better batting average (.285 vs. .232) and have outscored opponents by 12 runs during this span.

    • Pitching Edge: While Charlie Morton has been slightly better than Frankie Montas this season, Morton's recent performances have been up and down, making the Brewers' ability to keep games close more appealing.

    • Road Success: The Brewers have a decent road record and have shown resilience in tight games. The +1.5 run line gives them an edge, especially in a potentially close matchup where every run matters.

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Game Overview

  • San Diego Padres:

    • Current Record: 63-52

    • Road Record: 33-23

    • Key Stat: The Padres have a remarkable 47-6 record when scoring at least five runs.

    • Recent Form: 8-2 in their last 10 games with a .303 batting average and a 3.36 ERA, outscoring opponents by 26 runs.

  • Pittsburgh Pirates:

    • Current Record: 56-57

    • Home Record: 27-30

    • Key Stat: The Pirates have a strong 39-17 record when they record eight or more hits.

    • Recent Form: 4-6 in their last 10 games with a .244 batting average and a 4.80 ERA, outscored by five runs.

Pitching Matchup

  • Padres’ Pitcher: Randy Vasquez

    • Record: 3-6

    • ERA: 4.62

    • WHIP: 1.53

    • Strikeouts: 50

  • Pirates’ Pitcher: Luis Ortiz

    • Record: 5-2

    • ERA: 3.21

    • WHIP: 1.18

    • Strikeouts: 65

Betting Lines

  • Moneyline:

    • Pirates: -114

    • Padres: -105

  • Run Line:

    • Padres -1.5: +160

    • Pirates +1.5: -190

  • Over/Under:

    • Over 8.5: -120

    • Under 8.5: +100

Hypothetical Betting Suggestions

Favorite Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (-120)

  • Rationale:

    • Strong Offensive Performances: The Padres have been on a hot streak offensively, with a .303 batting average in the last 10 games, indicating they can score runs in bunches. The Pirates have also shown they can hit when they get eight or more hits, making the over a viable option.

    • Pitching Matchup: Randy Vasquez's 4.62 ERA and 1.53 WHIP suggest that the Padres might allow several runs, especially considering Pittsburgh's ability to capitalize on pitchers with higher WHIPs. Luis Ortiz has been solid, but against a hot Padres lineup, he might also give up runs.

    • Recent Trends: Both teams have shown the potential for high-scoring games, with the Padres consistently putting up big numbers. With both teams' offensive capabilities, the over 8.5 runs line is appealing.

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Game Overview

  • New York Mets:

    • Current Record: 60-54

    • Road Record: 30-25

    • Key Stat: The Mets have a strong 28-11 record when they do not allow a home run.

    • Recent Form: 5-5 in their last 10 games with a .262 batting average and a 3.62 ERA, outscoring opponents by 10 runs.

  • Colorado Rockies:

    • Current Record: 42-73

    • Home Record: 25-30

    • Key Stat: The Rockies have hit 129 total home runs, ranking eighth in the NL.

    • Recent Form: 4-6 in their last 10 games with a .210 batting average and a 4.81 ERA, outscored by 12 runs.

Pitching Matchup

  • Mets’ Pitcher: David Peterson

    • Record: 5-1

    • ERA: 3.47

    • WHIP: 1.43

    • Strikeouts: 47

  • Rockies’ Pitcher: Austin Gomber

    • Record: 3-7

    • ERA: 4.66

    • WHIP: 1.29

    • Strikeouts: 84

Betting Lines

  • Moneyline:

    • Mets: -160

    • Rockies: +135

  • Run Line:

    • Mets -1.5: -105

    • Rockies +1.5: -115

  • Over/Under:

    • Over 10.5: -110

    • Under 10.5: -110

Hypothetical Betting Suggestions

Favorite Bet: Mets -1.5 (-105)

  • Rationale:

    • Overall Performance: The Mets have been the stronger team throughout the season, with a more solid record both overall and on the road compared to the Rockies' struggles.

    • Pitching Edge: David Peterson has been more consistent than Austin Gomber, boasting a better ERA despite a slightly higher WHIP. The Mets' overall pitching staff has also performed better than the Rockies'.

    • Rockies’ Recent Struggles: The Rockies have only managed a .210 batting average over the last 10 games and have been outscored by 12 runs, indicating difficulties in both offense and defense.

    • Head-to-Head Advantage: The Mets have a 3-2 advantage in the season series against the Rockies, showing they have the upper hand in previous matchups.

    • Run Line Appeal: With the Mets' ability to score and keep games under control, the -1.5 run line at nearly even odds presents good value.

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Game Overview

  • Cincinnati Reds:

    • Current Record: 55-59

    • Road Record: 27-28

    • Key Stat: The Reds are 37-9 in games when they have more hits than their opponents.

    • Recent Form: 5-5 in their last 10 games with a .246 batting average and a 4.60 ERA, outscoring opponents by three runs.

  • Miami Marlins:

    • Current Record: 43-72

    • Home Record: 23-36

    • Key Stat: The Marlins have a 25-13 record in games when they scored at least five runs.

    • Recent Form: 4-6 in their last 10 games with a .242 batting average and a 5.13 ERA, outscored by 13 runs.

Pitching Matchup

  • Reds’ Pitcher: Hunter Greene

    • Record: 8-4

    • ERA: 2.83

    • WHIP: 1.02

    • Strikeouts: 149

  • Marlins’ Pitcher: Kyle Tyler

    • Record: 0-2

    • ERA: 5.27

    • WHIP: 1.76

    • Strikeouts: 22

Betting Lines

  • Moneyline:

    • Reds: -180

    • Marlins: +150

  • Run Line:

    • Reds -1.5: +100

    • Marlins +1.5: -120

  • Over/Under:

    • Over 7.5: -115

    • Under 7.5: -105

Hypothetical Betting Suggestions

Favorite Bet: Reds -1.5 (+100)

  • Rationale:

    • Pitching Advantage: Hunter Greene has been outstanding this season with a 2.83 ERA and 149 strikeouts. His ability to dominate games gives the Reds a clear edge on the mound over Kyle Tyler, who has struggled with a 5.27 ERA.

    • Reds’ Recent Success: Although both teams have been fairly even in their last 10 games, the Reds have shown they can outscore their opponents and have a slight edge in overall performance.

    • Head-to-Head Success: The Reds lead the season series 4-2, showing they have performed well against the Marlins in previous matchups.

    • Run Line Appeal: With Hunter Greene's dominant pitching and the Reds' ability to capitalize on hitting opportunities, the +100 odds on the -1.5 run line present good value.

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Game Overview

  • New York Yankees:

    • Current Record: 68-47

    • Home Record: 30-25

    • Key Stat: The Yankees have a 34-14 record in games when they hit two or more home runs.

    • Recent Form: 8-2 in their last 10 games with a .291 batting average and a 4.26 ERA, outscoring opponents by 21 runs.

  • Los Angeles Angels:

    • Current Record: 50-64

    • Road Record: 24-29

    • Key Stat: The Angels have a 24-8 record in games when they did not allow a home run.

    • Recent Form: 5-5 in their last 10 games with a .244 batting average and a 3.50 ERA, outscoring opponents by two runs.

Pitching Matchup

  • Angels’ Pitcher: Tyler Anderson

    • Record: 8-10

    • ERA: 3.05

    • WHIP: 1.17

    • Strikeouts: 102

  • Yankees’ Pitcher: Nestor Cortes Jr.

    • Record: 5-9

    • ERA: 4.16

    • WHIP: 1.20

    • Strikeouts: 122

Betting Lines

  • Moneyline:

    • Yankees: -255

    • Angels: +205

  • Run Line:

    • Yankees -1.5: -120

    • Angels +1.5: +100

  • Over/Under:

    • Over 8.5: -110

    • Under 8.5: -110

Hypothetical Betting Suggestions

Favorite Bet: Yankees -1.5 (-120)

  • Rationale:

    • Overall Performance: The Yankees have been in excellent form, winning 8 of their last 10 games and significantly outscoring their opponents. They also have a strong record when hitting multiple home runs, which could be a factor against the Angels.

    • Pitching Matchup: Tyler Anderson has been solid but will face a Yankees lineup that has performed well against pitchers with a higher ERA. Nestor Cortes Jr. has had a mixed season but is playing at home where the Yankees are generally stronger.

    • Head-to-Head Success: The Yankees lead the season series 3-2, indicating they've had the upper hand in past matchups.

    • Run Line Appeal: The Yankees' dominant recent performance and their ability to score in bunches suggest that they are well-positioned to cover the -1.5 run line.

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Game Overview

  • Baltimore Orioles:

    • Current Record: 68-47

    • Road Record: 34-22

    • Key Stat: The Orioles have the top team slugging percentage in the AL at .453.

    • Recent Form: 6-4 in their last 10 games with a .280 batting average and a 4.97 ERA, outscoring opponents by nine runs.

  • Toronto Blue Jays:

    • Current Record: 52-62

    • Home Record: 27-29

    • Key Stat: The Blue Jays have a 16-7 record in games when they did not give up a home run.

    • Recent Form: 4-6 in their last 10 games with a .269 batting average and a 5.75 ERA, outscored by 12 runs.

Pitching Matchup

  • Orioles’ Pitcher: Dean Kremer

    • Record: 4-8

    • ERA: 4.39

    • WHIP: 1.25

    • Strikeouts: 75

  • Blue Jays’ Pitcher: Kevin Gausman

    • Record: 9-8

    • ERA: 4.56

    • WHIP: 1.30

    • Strikeouts: 119

Betting Lines

  • Moneyline:

    • Orioles: -115

    • Blue Jays: -105

  • Run Line:

    • Orioles -1.5: +140

    • Blue Jays +1.5: -165

  • Over/Under:

    • Over 8.5: -135

    • Under 8.5: +115

Hypothetical Betting Suggestions

Favorite Bet: Orioles Moneyline (-115)

  • Rationale:

    • Recent Performance: The Orioles have been strong overall, particularly in road games, and have a better record compared to the Blue Jays. They also lead the season series 7-5, showing they have had success against the Blue Jays.

    • Team Slugging: The Orioles' top team slugging percentage in the AL indicates their ability to score runs effectively, which can be crucial against a Blue Jays team that has struggled recently.

    • Pitching Comparison: While Kevin Gausman has been solid with 119 strikeouts, his ERA of 4.56 and the Blue Jays' recent struggles make the Orioles a better bet, especially with Kremer having a slightly lower ERA and better overall team performance.

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Game Overview

  • St. Louis Cardinals:

    • Current Record: 59-56

    • Home Record: 31-26

    • Key Stat: The Cardinals are 41-9 in games when they have more hits than their opponents.

    • Recent Form: 5-5 in their last 10 games with a .246 batting average and a 3.92 ERA, outscoring opponents by four runs.

  • Tampa Bay Rays:

    • Current Record: 57-56

    • Road Record: 27-27

    • Key Stat: Rays pitchers have a collective 4.02 ERA, ranking eighth in the AL.

    • Recent Form: 5-5 in their last 10 games with a .226 batting average and a 2.35 ERA, outscoring opponents by seven runs.

Pitching Matchup

  • Rays’ Pitcher: Shane Baz

    • Record: 0-1

    • ERA: 3.60

    • WHIP: 1.40

    • Strikeouts: 24

  • Cardinals’ Pitcher: Kyle Gibson

    • Record: 7-4

    • ERA: 4.04

    • WHIP: 1.31

    • Strikeouts: 109

Betting Lines

  • Moneyline:

    • Cardinals: -126

    • Rays: +106

  • Run Line:

    • Rays +1.5: -200

    • Cardinals -1.5: +165

  • Over/Under:

    • Over 8.5: +100

    • Under 8.5: -120

Hypothetical Betting Suggestions

Favorite Bet: Cardinals Moneyline (-126)

  • Rationale:

    • Recent Performance: The Cardinals have performed well at home and are looking to complete a sweep of the series. They have a good record when out-hitting opponents, which can be a significant factor in this matchup.

    • Pitching Edge: While Kyle Gibson’s ERA is slightly higher, Shane Baz is still seeking his first win and has had limited starts. Gibson's experience and current form may give him an edge in this game.

    • Head-to-Head Success: The Cardinals are in a favorable position to sweep the series, indicating they have been successful against the Rays this season.

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Game Overview

  • Seattle Mariners:

    • Current Record: 59-56

    • Home Record: 33-26

    • Key Stat: The Mariners are 41-6 in games when they have more hits than their opponents.

    • Recent Form: 5-5 in their last 10 games with a .225 batting average and a 4.80 ERA, outscoring opponents by one run.

  • Detroit Tigers:

    • Current Record: 55-60

    • Road Record: 29-29

    • Key Stat: The Tigers are 43-5 in games when they have more hits than their opponents.

    • Recent Form: 4-6 in their last 10 games with a .213 batting average and a 4.50 ERA, outscoring opponents by 16 runs.

Pitching Matchup

  • Tigers’ Pitcher: Tarik Skubal

    • Record: 13-4

    • ERA: 2.57

    • WHIP: 0.94

    • Strikeouts: 171

  • Mariners’ Pitcher: Bryan Woo

    • Record: 5-1

    • ERA: 2.08

    • WHIP: 0.87

    • Strikeouts: 43

Betting Lines

  • Moneyline:

    • Mariners: -206

    • Tigers: +172

  • Run Line:

    • Tigers +1.5: -130

    • Mariners -1.5: +110

  • Over/Under:

    • Over 7.5: +110

    • Under 7.5: -130

Hypothetical Betting Suggestion

Favorite Bet: Mariners -1.5 (+110)

  • Rationale:

    • Pitching Advantage: Bryan Woo has been exceptional with a 2.08 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, making him a strong candidate to control the game against the Tigers.

    • Current Form: Despite the Mariners' recent 5-5 stretch, Woo's consistent performance and Seattle's strong home record provide a solid basis for backing them to win by more than one run.

    • Matchup Advantage: The Mariners have performed well in games where they have more hits than their opponents, which aligns with their current form and Skubal's high strikeout rate being countered by Seattle’s strong hitting lineup.

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Game Overview

  • Arizona Diamondbacks:

    • Current Record: 63-52

    • Home Record: 31-25

    • Key Stat: The Diamondbacks have the second-ranked team slugging percentage in the NL at .428.

    • Recent Form: 8-2 in their last 10 games with a .291 batting average and a 4.55 ERA, outscoring opponents by 25 runs.

  • Philadelphia Phillies:

    • Current Record: 68-46

    • Road Record: 30-25

    • Key Stat: The Phillies are 56-6 in games when they out-hit their opponents.

    • Recent Form: 3-7 in their last 10 games with a .245 batting average and a 5.43 ERA, outscoring opponents by 9 runs.

Pitching Matchup

  • Phillies’ Pitcher: Kolby Allard

    • Record: 0-0

    • ERA: 4.50

    • WHIP: 1.25

    • Strikeouts: 5

  • Diamondbacks’ Pitcher: Jordan Montgomery

    • Record: 7-5

    • ERA: 6.37

    • WHIP: 1.66

    • Strikeouts: 51

Betting Lines

  • Moneyline:

    • Phillies: -113

    • Diamondbacks: -107

  • Run Line:

    • Phillies -1.5: +150

    • Diamondbacks +1.5: -180

  • Over/Under:

    • Over 9.5: +100

    • Under 9.5: -120

Hypothetical Betting Suggestion

Favorite Bet: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180)

  • Rationale:

    • Pitching Issues: Jordan Montgomery's high ERA (6.37) and WHIP (1.66) could be problematic, but Kolby Allard's limited experience (4.50 ERA) suggests he might not fully capitalize on Montgomery's struggles.

    • Recent Form: Despite Philadelphia's overall strong record, their recent slump (3-7) and struggles in their last 10 games, combined with Arizona's recent strong performance (8-2), make the Diamondbacks a more favorable pick to cover the +1.5 spread.

    • Home Advantage: Arizona’s home record (31-25) and strong slugging percentage contribute to their ability to compete effectively at home.