Best Bets - 8/29/2024

August 29, 2024

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Matchup Preview: Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers

Date/Time: Thursday, 1:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Detroit, Comerica Park

Team Records:

  • Los Angeles Angels: 54-79, 5th in AL West

  • Detroit Tigers: 68-66, 4th in AL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Angels: Jack Kochanowicz (1-3, 6.07 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 8 strikeouts)

  • Tigers: Keider Montero (4-5, 5.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 53 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Tigers -162, Angels +136

  • Run Line: Angels +1.5 (-145), Tigers -1.5 (+120)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (-135), Under 8.5 (+115)

Angels Overview:

The Los Angeles Angels have been struggling significantly in the past 10 games, with a record of 1-9. Their offense has been particularly cold, hitting just .174, while their pitching has faltered with a 4.83 ERA. Jack Kochanowicz, their probable starter, has not been able to find his form this season, sporting a high ERA of 6.07 and a WHIP of 1.54. On the road, the Angels have also struggled, posting a 27-39 record.

Key Performers:

  • Zachary Neto: 19 home runs, .448 slugging percentage.

  • Nolan Schanuel: 12-for-36 with four doubles and an RBI in the last 10 games.

Tigers Overview:

The Detroit Tigers are currently on an upswing, winning 8 of their last 10 games. They've shown a decent offensive output with a .269 batting average during this stretch, complemented by a solid team ERA of 3.03. Keider Montero, while not dominant, has been more consistent than his counterpart, and the Tigers have been playing well at home, boasting a 33-32 record.

Key Performers:

  • Riley Greene: 23 doubles, 5 triples, 19 home runs.

  • Colt Keith: 15-for-42 with three doubles and a home run in the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Tigers: 8-2 in the last 10 games, outscoring opponents by 22 runs.

  • Angels: 1-9 in the last 10 games, outscored by 19 runs.

Head-to-Head:

  • The series is currently tied 3-3 for the season, making this game a crucial tiebreaker.

Best Bet: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+120)

  • Rationale: The Tigers are in better form both offensively and defensively, with a solid home record. The Angels have been in a tailspin recently, struggling in almost every aspect of the game. Given the Tigers' momentum and Kochanowicz's struggles on the mound, betting on Detroit to cover the -1.5 run line at +120 offers good value.

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Matchup Preview: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Date/Time: Thursday, 2:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Milwaukee, American Family Field

Team Records:

  • San Francisco Giants: 67-67, 4th in NL West

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 76-56, 1st in NL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Giants: Hayden Birdsong (3-3, 4.57 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 54 strikeouts)

  • Brewers: Aaron Civale (4-8, 4.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 120 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -135, Giants +115

  • Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+150), Giants +1.5 (-180)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (+100), Under 8.5 (-120)

Giants Overview:

The San Francisco Giants are struggling on the road with a 29-39 record away from home, and their overall record sits at .500 (67-67). Hayden Birdsong has been inconsistent this season with a 4.57 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The Giants' offense has been relatively quiet, hitting .225 over their last 10 games, while their pitching has been respectable with a 3.37 ERA. However, they tend to struggle when allowing home runs, holding a 32-49 record in such games.

Key Performers:

  • Matt Chapman: 32 doubles, 21 home runs.

  • Heliot Ramos: 11-for-37 with three doubles and three home runs in the last 10 games.

Brewers Overview:

The Milwaukee Brewers are playing well at home, holding a strong 39-25 record at American Family Field. They lead the NL Central and have been effective offensively, boasting a .331 on-base percentage, second-best in the league. Aaron Civale, their probable starter, has had an up-and-down season with a 4.84 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Despite some offensive struggles in the last 10 games (.230 batting average), the Brewers have managed a solid 6-4 record in that span, thanks to a 3.58 team ERA.

Key Performers:

  • William Contreras: 18 home runs, 76 RBI, .283 batting average.

  • Jackson Chourio: 10-for-40 with two doubles, a triple, and a home run in the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Brewers: 6-4 in the last 10 games, outscoring opponents by nine runs.

  • Giants: 5-5 in the last 10 games, outscored by one run.

Head-to-Head:

  • This game marks the third time these teams face off this season.

Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+150)

Rationale: The Brewers have the advantage at home and are coming off a solid stretch of games. The Giants have struggled on the road and have been inconsistent offensively. With Civale on the mound, Milwaukee has a slight edge, and betting on them to cover the -1.5 run line at +150 presents good value.

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Matchup Preview: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox

Date/Time: Thursday, 2:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Chicago, Guaranteed Rate Field

Team Records:

  • Texas Rangers: 62-71, 3rd in AL West

  • Chicago White Sox: 31-103, 5th in AL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi (9-7, 3.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 128 strikeouts)

  • White Sox: Nick Nastrini (0-0)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Rangers -250, White Sox +205

  • Run Line: Rangers -2.5 (+105), White Sox +2.5 (-125)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (-120), Under 8.5 (+100)

Rangers Overview:

The Texas Rangers have struggled on the road this season, with a 28-40 record away from home, contributing to their overall 62-71 record. Nathan Eovaldi has been a steady presence on the mound for Texas, posting a solid 3.79 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 128 strikeouts. The Rangers' offense ranks ninth in the AL with a .305 on-base percentage but has seen recent inconsistency, reflected in their .230 batting average over the last 10 games.

Key Performers:

  • Josh Smith: 23 doubles, 12 home runs, 51 RBI.

  • Corey Seager: 14-for-42 with four doubles and three home runs over the last 10 games.

White Sox Overview:

The Chicago White Sox have endured a rough season, particularly at home, where they hold an 18-50 record. Their overall record is a dismal 31-103. Despite this, Andrew Vaughn has been a standout, leading the team with a .241 batting average. However, the team has struggled offensively and defensively, with a 1-9 record in their last 10 games and a 5.38 ERA in that span.

Key Performers:

  • Andrew Vaughn: 28 doubles, 15 home runs, 59 RBI.

  • Luis Robert: 12-for-40 with two RBI over the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Rangers: 6-4 in the last 10 games, .230 batting average, 3.64 ERA, outscored opponents by nine runs.

  • White Sox: 1-9 in the last 10 games, .233 batting average, 5.38 ERA, outscored by 26 runs.

Head-to-Head:

  • This game is the seventh meeting between these teams this season, with the Rangers holding a dominant 6-0 advantage in the season series.

Best Bet: Rangers -2.5 (+105)

Rationale: The Rangers have dominated the season series against the White Sox, winning all six previous matchups. With Nathan Eovaldi on the mound and the White Sox struggling mightily, the Rangers are well-positioned to cover the -2.5 run line. The odds at +105 offer good value, considering the disparity in team performance and the White Sox's poor home record.

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Matchup Preview: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Date/Time: Thursday, 2:15 p.m. EDT
Location: St. Louis, Busch Stadium

Team Records:

  • San Diego Padres: 76-59, 3rd in NL West

  • St. Louis Cardinals: 66-67, 3rd in NL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Padres: Michael King (11-7, 3.14 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 174 strikeouts)

  • Cardinals: Sonny Gray (11-9, 4.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 175 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Padres -112, Cardinals -107

  • Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+160), Cardinals +1.5 (-190)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110)

Padres Overview:

The San Diego Padres have been strong on the road this season, boasting a 39-27 record away from home. They are coming off a series where Luis Arraez was a standout performer, contributing significantly with his bat. Michael King takes the mound with an impressive 3.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The Padres have also shown power at the plate, winning 34 games when they've hit at least two home runs.

Key Performers:

  • Jackson Merrill: 22 doubles, six triples, 19 home runs, 75 RBI, hitting .290.

  • Luis Arraez: 15-for-41 with two doubles and a home run over the last 10 games.

Cardinals Overview:

The St. Louis Cardinals are a solid team at home, with a 35-32 record at Busch Stadium. They have performed well when their offense clicks, holding a 40-12 record in games where they've scored at least five runs. Sonny Gray is set to start, bringing a 4.07 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to the matchup, looking to build on his 11-9 record this season.

Key Performers:

  • Alec Burleson: 18 doubles, 21 home runs.

  • Nolan Arenado: 12-for-40 with two doubles, a home run, and six RBI over the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Cardinals: 5-5 in the last 10 games, .259 batting average, 3.70 ERA, outscored opponents by one run.

  • Padres: 6-4 in the last 10 games, .256 batting average, 4.44 ERA, outscored by two runs.

Head-to-Head:

  • The season series is tied 3-3, making this game a crucial tiebreaker between these two teams.

Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-110)

Rationale: With both teams having strong offensive capabilities and the potential for the game to be competitive, the total of 7.5 runs seems attainable. The Padres have shown they can hit for power, while the Cardinals are more than capable of putting up runs, especially at home. The even odds at -110 make the over an attractive bet in this matchup.

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Matchup Preview: Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies

Date/Time: Thursday, 3:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Coors Field, Denver

Team Records:

  • Miami Marlins: 48-85, 5th in NL East

  • Colorado Rockies: 50-84, 5th in NL West

Pitching Probables:

  • Marlins: Valente Bellozo (2-2, 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 28 strikeouts)

  • Rockies: Bradley Blalock (1-0, 3.06 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 11 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Rockies -125, Marlins +105

  • Run Line: Rockies -1.5 (+150), Marlins +1.5 (-180)

  • Total: Over 11.5 (+100), Under 11.5 (-120)

Marlins Overview:

The Miami Marlins have struggled on the road this season with a 23-41 record. Despite their overall challenges, they have a solid record of 34-17 in games where they out-hit their opponents. Valente Bellozo takes the mound with a respectable 3.35 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, aiming to help Miami avoid a series loss.

Key Performers:

  • Jake Burger: 17 doubles, a triple, 25 home runs, .248 average.

  • Connor Norby: 12-for-36 with six doubles and two home runs over the last 10 games.

Rockies Overview:

The Colorado Rockies have been slightly better at home with a 31-34 record at Coors Field. Their offense has been potent when they score five or more runs, boasting a 34-19 record in such games. Bradley Blalock, with a 3.06 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, will look to continue his solid performance and help the Rockies secure the series.

Key Performers:

  • Ezequiel Tovar: .274 average, 39 doubles, 21 home runs, 61 RBI.

  • Brenton Doyle: 11-for-36 with a home run and three RBI over the past 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Rockies: 5-5 in the last 10 games, .240 batting average, 4.60 ERA, outscored by four runs.

  • Marlins: 3-7 in the last 10 games, .274 batting average, 6.24 ERA, outscored by 22 runs.

Head-to-Head:

  • The Marlins lead the season series 4-2, but the Rockies have the opportunity to close the gap with a win today.

Best Bet: Over 11.5 (+100)

Rationale: Coors Field is known for high-scoring games, and with both teams' pitching being inconsistent, the over on 11.5 runs is a good bet. The Rockies' offense tends to perform well at home, and the Marlins have been hitting well despite their struggles. The combination of these factors makes the over a solid play at even odds.

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Matchup Preview: New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Date/Time: Thursday, 3:40 p.m. EDT
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix

Team Records:

  • New York Mets: 69-64, 3rd in NL East

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: 76-57, 2nd in NL West

Pitching Probables:

  • Mets: David Peterson (8-1, 2.85 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 66 strikeouts)

  • Diamondbacks: Ryne Nelson (9-6, 4.29 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 108 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Diamondbacks -125, Mets +105

  • Run Line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165), Mets +1.5 (-200)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (-120), Under 8.5 (+100)

Mets Overview:

The New York Mets have been competitive, particularly with their powerful lineup that ranks fifth in MLB for home runs. On the road, they have a decent 34-31 record. David Peterson has been exceptional with a 2.85 ERA, making him a strong asset for the Mets.

Key Performers:

  • Francisco Lindor: 35 doubles, 27 home runs, 78 RBI.

  • J.D. Martinez: 7-for-35 with a double, three home runs, and eight RBI over the last 10 games.

Diamondbacks Overview:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a strong home record at 38-27 and lead in slugging percentage. Ryne Nelson, despite a higher ERA of 4.29, has been solid for the Diamondbacks. Arizona will look to leverage their home advantage and slugging prowess in this key matchup.

Key Performers:

  • Ketel Marte: Leads the Diamondbacks in batting with a .288 average and has been crucial in their success.

  • Corbin Carroll: 26 home runs and 18 stolen bases, bringing a strong offensive presence.

Recent Form:

  • Diamondbacks: 7-3 in the last 10 games, .251 batting average, 4.54 ERA, outscored opponents by 14 runs.

  • Mets: 5-5 in the last 10 games, .231 batting average, 4.24 ERA, outscored opponents by two runs.

Head-to-Head:

  • The season series is tied 3-3, highlighting the competitiveness between these two teams.

Best Bet: Mets +105

Rationale: David Peterson's strong performance on the mound and the Mets’ power-hitting lineup provide a good value at +105. The Mets have shown resilience and their ability to score runs through home runs is a key advantage. Considering Peterson's low ERA and the close nature of the series, the Mets offer value as an underdog bet.

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Matchup Preview: Oakland Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds

Date/Time: Thursday, 5:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati

Team Records:

  • Oakland Athletics: 58-75, 4th in AL West

  • Cincinnati Reds: 63-70, 4th in NL Central

Pitching Probables:

  • Athletics: J.T. Ginn (0-0, 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 4 strikeouts)

  • Reds: Julian Aguiar (1-0, 3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Reds -133, Athletics +113

  • Run Line: Reds -1.5 (+150), Athletics +1.5 (-180)

  • Total: Over 9.5 (-125), Under 9.5 (+105)

Athletics Overview:

The Oakland Athletics have been on a three-game win streak, providing them with some momentum heading into this matchup. They have performed well in games where they have more hits than their opponents and are strong in that aspect.

Key Performers:

  • Brent Rooker: Leads the Athletics with 31 home runs and a .563 slugging percentage.

  • Lawrence Butler: 11-for-36 with three home runs and eight RBI over the last 10 games.

Reds Overview:

The Cincinnati Reds have struggled recently with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games and a high ERA of 6.06. They have had difficulties giving up home runs, which could be a concern against a power-hitting team like the Athletics.

Key Performers:

  • Jonathan India: 25 doubles, a triple, and 12 home runs.

  • Jeimer Candelario: 4-for-26 with two home runs over the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Athletics: 5-5 in the last 10 games, .231 batting average, 3.86 ERA, outscored by seven runs.

  • Reds: 3-7 in the last 10 games, .260 batting average, 6.06 ERA, outscored by 12 runs.

Head-to-Head:

  • The teams are meeting for the third time this season. The Athletics have been competitive, and their recent form is promising.

Best Bet: Athletics +113

Rationale: Despite the Reds being favored, the Athletics are on a winning streak and have a good record when out-hitting opponents. With Ginn's strong ERA in his limited appearances and the Reds’ recent struggles, the Athletics offer value as underdogs. Plus, the Reds’ high ERA and recent performance make this a solid bet for Oakland to continue their streak.

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Matchup Preview: Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Date/Time: Thursday, 6:40 p.m. EDT
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

Team Records:

  • Atlanta Braves: 73-60, 2nd in NL East

  • Philadelphia Phillies: 78-55, 1st in NL East

Pitching Probables:

  • Braves: Charlie Morton (7-7, 4.24 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 133 strikeouts)

  • Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (9-9, 3.51 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 116 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Phillies -151, Braves +128

  • Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+135), Braves +1.5 (-160)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (-110), Under 8.5 (-110)

Braves Overview:

The Atlanta Braves are on a roll, having won five consecutive road games. They have been strong on the road and are exceptional in games where they do not allow home runs.

Key Performers:

  • Marcell Ozuna: Leads the Braves with 26 doubles, 37 home runs, and a .309 batting average.

  • Ramon Laureano: 14-for-39 with a double and two home runs over the last 10 games.

Phillies Overview:

The Philadelphia Phillies are leading the NL East and have been solid at home. Their hitting has been productive, with a team batting average ranked fifth in the league. They have been strong overall, but their recent performance shows some vulnerability.

Key Performers:

  • Kyle Schwarber: Fourth on the Phillies with 45 extra base hits (17 doubles and 28 home runs).

  • J.T. Realmuto: 13-for-36 with four doubles, two home runs, and 11 RBI over the past 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Phillies: 5-5 in the last 10 games, .265 batting average, 3.89 ERA, outscored opponents by six runs.

  • Braves: 8-2 in the last 10 games, .256 batting average, 2.45 ERA, outscored opponents by 13 runs.

Head-to-Head:

  • The Braves lead the season series 6-3, indicating they have had the upper hand in their previous meetings.

Best Bet: Braves +128

Rationale: Despite the Phillies being the favorites, the Braves are in excellent form, particularly on the road, and have been strong in not allowing home runs, which is a key to their success. With Morton, who has a solid strikeout rate and a lower ERA than Sanchez, the Braves present good value as underdogs. Their recent winning streak and the ability to handle the Phillies in previous matchups make them a solid bet.

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Matchup Preview: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox

Date/Time: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Fenway Park, Boston

Team Records:

  • Toronto Blue Jays: 65-70, 5th in AL East

  • Boston Red Sox: 69-64, 3rd in AL East

Pitching Probables:

  • Blue Jays: Bowden Francis (7-3, 4.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 70 strikeouts)

  • Red Sox: Kutter Crawford (8-11, 4.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 138 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Red Sox -142, Blue Jays +120

  • Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-175)

  • Total: Over 8.5 (-115), Under 8.5 (-105)

Blue Jays Overview:

The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off a strong run with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games. They’ve been effective on the road and have improved their hitting, though their on-base percentage is slightly lower than the league average.

Key Performers:

  • Daulton Varsho: 19 doubles, seven triples, and 16 home runs.

  • George Springer: 8-for-40 with a double and five home runs over the last 10 games.

Red Sox Overview:

The Boston Red Sox have been inconsistent recently, going 4-6 in their last 10 games with a struggling batting average. Despite having a strong record when they out-hit their opponents, they’ve been less effective at home.

Key Performers:

  • Rafael Devers: Leads the team with 28 home runs and a .571 slugging percentage.

  • Jarren Duran: 14-for-35 with five doubles, five home runs, and seven RBI over the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Red Sox: 4-6 in the last 10 games, .220 batting average, 4.24 ERA, outscored by 13 runs.

  • Blue Jays: 7-3 in the last 10 games, .251 batting average, 3.48 ERA, outscored opponents by 15 runs.

Head-to-Head:

  • The Red Sox lead the season series 6-3, showing they have been successful against the Blue Jays in their previous matchups.

Best Bet: Blue Jays +120

Rationale: The Blue Jays are in better recent form with a strong record in their last 10 games and a more effective pitching staff. Despite being underdogs, Bowden Francis has been solid with a 4.02 ERA and a good WHIP. The Red Sox's recent struggles, especially their poor batting average and inconsistent pitching, make the Blue Jays a valuable bet at +120.

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Matchup Preview: Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros

Date/Time: Thursday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston

Team Records:

  • Kansas City Royals: 75-59, 2nd in AL Central

  • Houston Astros: 71-62, 1st in AL West

Pitching Probables:

  • Royals: Brady Singer (9-9, 3.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 141 strikeouts)

  • Astros: Hunter Brown (11-7, 3.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 151 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Astros -160, Royals +135

  • Run Line: Astros -1.5 (+135), Royals +1.5 (-160)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (-120), Under 7.5 (+100)

Royals Overview:

The Kansas City Royals have been solid, especially on the road with a 34-31 record. They’re currently ranked 2nd in the AL Central and have a strong batting average, which is 3rd in the AL at .258.

Key Performers:

  • Bobby Witt Jr.: .346 batting average, 39 doubles, 11 triples, 28 home runs.

  • Salvador Perez: 13-for-38 with five doubles and three home runs over the last 10 games.

Astros Overview:

The Houston Astros are leading the AL West and have a strong home record at 35-29. They have been dominant when they out-hit their opponents, boasting a 59-18 record in such games. The Astros’ recent form has been solid with a .272 batting average and a 3.10 ERA in their last 10 games.

Key Performers:

  • Yordan Alvarez: Leads the team with a .311 batting average, 29 doubles, 28 home runs, and 71 RBI.

  • Yainer Diaz: 13-for-42 with four home runs and four RBI over the last 10 games.

Recent Form:

  • Astros: 4-6 in the last 10 games, .272 batting average, 3.10 ERA, outscored opponents by 7 runs.

  • Royals: 6-4 in the last 10 games, .277 batting average, 4.85 ERA, outscored opponents by 4 runs.

Head-to-Head:

  • The Astros and Royals have faced each other three times this season, with Houston having the edge in the previous matchups.

Best Bet: Astros -1.5 (+135)

Rationale: Despite a recent 4-6 run, the Astros have been effective at home and have a strong record when they out-hit their opponents. With Hunter Brown on the mound, who has a solid ERA and strikeout rate, they should be able to handle the Royals. The Astros’ recent form and their ability to win by a margin make the -1.5 line a good value at +135.