Best Bets - 8/21/2024

August 21, 2024

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Game Preview: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets

Date & Time: Wednesday, 1:10 p.m. EDT

Location: New York, NY

Team Overview

New York Mets

  • Record: 65-61 (3rd in NL East)

  • Home Record: 34-33

  • Recent Form: The Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 games with a .232 batting average and a 4.81 ERA. They've been outscored by nine runs during this stretch.

  • Strengths: The Mets have excelled in games where they prevent home runs, holding a 31-13 record in such contests. Pete Alonso continues to lead the power department with 27 home runs.

  • Weaknesses: Despite Alonso’s contributions, the Mets have struggled offensively and on the mound recently, as indicated by their subpar record and run differential over the last 10 games.

Baltimore Orioles

  • Record: 74-53 (1st in AL East)

  • Road Record: 37-25

  • Recent Form: The Orioles are 5-5 in their last 10 games with a .266 batting average and a 4.60 ERA. They've managed to outscore opponents by one run in that span.

  • Strengths: Baltimore has a strong road record and excels when they out-hit opponents, boasting a 59-9 record in those situations. Anthony Santander has been a key contributor with 37 home runs.

  • Weaknesses: Despite their success, the Orioles’ pitching has been inconsistent, as shown by their recent ERA.

Pitching Matchup

Mets: Sean Manaea (9-5, 3.46 ERA)

  • Analysis: Manaea has been solid for the Mets, posting a 3.46 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. His ability to keep baserunners in check and strike out batters will be crucial against a potent Orioles lineup.

Orioles: Cole Irvin (0-0)

  • Analysis: Irvin is making his first start, which adds an element of unpredictability. His performance could be the key to the Orioles' chances in this game.

Favorite Bet: Mets to Win (-125)

  • Explanation: With Manaea’s solid season and the Mets' tendency to perform well when preventing home runs, they have a slight edge, particularly at home. The Orioles' recent pitching inconsistency also factors into this pick.

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Game Preview: Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros

Date & Time: Wednesday, 2:10 p.m. EDT

Location: Houston, TX

Team Overview

Boston Red Sox

  • Record: 66-59 (3rd in AL East)

  • Road Record: 37-27

  • Recent Form: The Red Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 games, posting a .266 batting average but struggling on the mound with a 5.35 ERA. They have been outscored by four runs over this stretch.

  • Strengths: Boston’s offense has been potent, ranking fifth in MLB with 159 home runs. Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida have been key contributors, especially with Duran’s versatility and power.

  • Weaknesses: Despite their offensive firepower, the Red Sox's pitching has been inconsistent, as highlighted by their recent ERA.

Houston Astros

  • Record: 68-57 (1st in AL West)

  • Home Record: 35-28

  • Recent Form: The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games with a .263 batting average and a stellar 2.27 ERA. They’ve outscored their opponents by 22 runs during this period.

  • Strengths: Houston's offense has been clicking, particularly when they reach eight or more hits, boasting a 53-29 record in such games. Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman have been standout performers.

  • Weaknesses: While the Astros have been strong overall, their home record is just slightly above .500, which could be a minor concern.

Pitching Matchup

Red Sox: Cooper Criswell (5-4, 4.56 ERA)

  • Analysis: Criswell has been serviceable for the Red Sox, but his 4.56 ERA and 1.35 WHIP suggest he might struggle against a potent Astros lineup. His ability to keep the game close will be critical for Boston’s chances.

Astros: Justin Verlander (0-0)

  • Analysis: Verlander is making his return to the Astros, bringing with him a wealth of experience. While he hasn't pitched yet this season, his presence on the mound is always a significant advantage for Houston.

Favorite Bet: Astros to Win (-155)

  • Explanation: With Verlander’s return and the Astros’ hot streak, they have a solid chance to win this game, especially at home. The Red Sox’s recent pitching struggles also make the Astros the safer bet.

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Game Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers

Date & Time: Wednesday, 2:35 p.m. EDT

Location: Arlington, Texas

Team Overview

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Record: 59-66 (5th in NL Central)

  • Road Record: 30-34

  • Recent Form: The Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 games, with a .229 batting average and a 3.91 ERA, being outscored by 11 runs. They have struggled offensively but remain competitive in games where they score five or more runs, boasting a 37-13 record in such instances.

  • Key Players: Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with a .278 batting average, contributing 23 doubles, three triples, and 19 home runs. Joey Bart has been hot lately, going 12-for-40 with three home runs and seven RBI over the last 10 games.

Texas Rangers

  • Record: 58-69 (3rd in AL West)

  • Home Record: 33-31

  • Recent Form: The Rangers are also 3-7 in their last 10 games, hitting .238 as a team with a 4.99 ERA, and they’ve been outscored by 12 runs during this stretch. They have a strong record of 46-13 when out-hitting their opponents, indicating their reliance on offensive success.

  • Key Players: Marcus Semien has been a key contributor with 24 doubles, two triples, 18 home runs, and 61 RBI while hitting .245. Adolis Garcia has been in good form recently, going 12-for-40 with a double and three home runs over the last 10 games.

Pitching Matchup

Pirates: Domingo Germán (0-0, 3.00 ERA)

  • Analysis: Germán is making an appearance with a 3.00 ERA and a strong WHIP of 0.83, but with limited action and just four strikeouts so far, it's hard to gauge how he’ll fare against a Rangers lineup that can be explosive when they’re hitting well.

Rangers: Andrew Heaney (4-13, 4.20 ERA)

  • Analysis: Heaney has had a tough season with a 4-13 record, but his ERA of 4.20 and WHIP of 1.24 suggest he has been better than his win-loss record indicates. He’ll be looking to bounce back and capitalize on the Pirates’ offensive struggles.

Favorite Bet: Rangers to Win (-165)

  • Explanation: Despite Heaney's struggles, the Rangers are at home and have a strong record when they out-hit their opponents. Considering the Pirates’ current form and offensive challenges, the Rangers are the more reliable pick for this matchup.

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Game Preview: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants

Date & Time: Wednesday, 3:45 p.m. EDT

Location: San Francisco, California

Team Overview

Chicago White Sox

  • Record: 30-97 (5th in AL Central)

  • Road Record: 12-53

  • Recent Form: The White Sox have been struggling significantly, losing four straight road games and going 2-8 in their last 10. Their offense has shown some life with a .251 batting average over this stretch, but they’ve been outscored by 15 runs, highlighting their pitching struggles (4.71 ERA).

  • Key Players: Luis Robert has been a bright spot with 26 extra-base hits, including 12 doubles and 14 home runs. Andrew Benintendi has also been performing well lately, hitting 9-for-38 with two doubles and two home runs over the past 10 games.

San Francisco Giants

  • Record: 65-63 (4th in NL West)

  • Home Record: 38-27

  • Recent Form: The Giants are 5-5 in their last 10 games, maintaining a solid 2.84 ERA during this stretch. Although their offense has been modest (.230 batting average), they’ve managed to keep games close.

  • Key Players: Matt Chapman leads the Giants with 20 home runs, maintaining a slugging percentage of .446. Tyler Fitzgerald has been heating up, going 13-for-42 with three doubles, two home runs, and four RBIs over the last 10 games.

Pitching Matchup

White Sox: Garrett Crochet (6-9, 3.61 ERA)

  • Analysis: Crochet has been one of the more reliable pitchers for the White Sox this season, posting a respectable 3.61 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07. His strikeout ability (176 strikeouts) gives him the potential to keep the Giants' offense in check, but he’ll need run support, which has been lacking.

Giants: Logan Webb (11-8, 3.17 ERA)

  • Analysis: Webb has been a steady presence on the mound for the Giants, with an impressive 3.17 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He’s been effective at home and will look to exploit a White Sox lineup that has struggled to produce runs consistently.

Favorite Bet: Giants -1.5 Run Line (+100)

  • Explanation: The Giants are well-positioned to take advantage of the White Sox’s issues, particularly at home with Webb on the mound. Given the White Sox's recent struggles, the Giants covering the run line offers solid value.

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Game Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins

Date & Time: Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

Location: Miami, Florida

Team Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Record: 71-56 (3rd in NL West)

  • Road Record: 34-30

  • Recent Form: The Diamondbacks are on a hot streak, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They’ve been productive offensively, with a .270 batting average over this stretch and outscoring their opponents by 24 runs. Their pitching staff has also performed well, maintaining a 3.89 ERA.

  • Key Players: The Diamondbacks’ offense has been balanced and effective, contributing to their recent success. Jordan Montgomery will need to improve on his high ERA (6.25) and WHIP (1.66) in this matchup.

Miami Marlins

  • Record: 46-80 (5th in NL East)

  • Home Record: 24-41

  • Recent Form: The Marlins have been struggling, losing 7 of their last 10 games. Their pitching staff has struggled with a 5.26 ERA during this stretch, and they’ve been outscored by 15 runs. The offense has been inconsistent, with a .237 batting average.

  • Key Players: Jake Burger has been a bright spot for the Marlins, leading the team with a .248 batting average and contributing 24 home runs and 55 RBIs. Otto Lopez has also been in decent form recently, going 12-for-39 with four RBIs over the last 10 games.

Favorite Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 Run Line (+100)

  • Explanation: The Diamondbacks are in good form, and with the Marlins struggling on both offense and defense, Arizona has a strong chance to win by more than one run, making this a solid value bet.

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Game Preview: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees

Date & Time: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT

Location: New York, New York

Team Overview

Cleveland Guardians

  • Record: 73-52 (1st in AL Central)

  • Road Record: 35-32

  • Recent Form: The Guardians have won 6 of their last 10 games, relying heavily on their pitching staff, which has posted a strong 3.13 ERA during this stretch. Offensively, they've struggled, with a .208 team batting average.

  • Key Players: José Ramírez has been the Guardians' standout hitter, leading the team with 32 home runs and a .534 slugging percentage. Will Brennan has also been contributing recently, going 12-for-35 with a double, a triple, and two RBIs in his last 10 games.

New York Yankees

  • Record: 73-53 (2nd in AL East)

  • Home Record: 32-28

  • Recent Form: The Yankees are in a bit of a slump, having lost three straight games. However, their pitching remains a strength, with the third-ranked team ERA in the AL at 3.81.

  • Key Players: Aaron Judge continues to be the Yankees' offensive leader, boasting a .332 batting average with 45 home runs and 30 doubles. Jazz Chisholm has been heating up recently, going 11-for-34 with three home runs over the past 10 games.

Pitching Matchup

Guardians: Joey Cantillo (0-0)

  • Analysis: Cantillo is making his debut, so there’s some uncertainty about how he will perform. The Guardians will hope that he can hold his own against a strong Yankees lineup.

Yankees: Nestor Cortes Jr. (6-10, 4.20 ERA)

  • Analysis: Cortes has had a challenging season with a 4.20 ERA and a 6-10 record. However, his 1.19 WHIP and 133 strikeouts indicate that he can still dominate on the mound when he’s on his game.

Favorite Bet: Yankees to Win (-167)

  • Explanation: With Cortes on the mound and the Yankees' offense needing to bounce back, New York is favored to end their losing streak. This is a safer bet given the circumstances.

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Game Preview: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Date & Time: Wednesday, 7:20 p.m. EDT

Location: Atlanta, Georgia

Team Overview

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Record: 73-52 (1st in NL East)

  • Road Record: 31-29

  • Recent Form: The Phillies have struggled recently, losing four straight road games. Their offense remains strong, ranking seventh in MLB with a .421 team slugging percentage. However, pitching has been an issue, as evidenced by their 5.02 ERA over the last 10 games.

  • Key Players: Alec Bohm has been a key contributor, with 43 doubles, two triples, and 13 home runs this season. Trea Turner has been in good form lately, hitting .310 over his last 10 games with four doubles, a home run, and six RBI.

Atlanta Braves

  • Record: 67-58 (2nd in NL East)

  • Home Record: 33-26

  • Recent Form: The Braves have been in solid form, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They are particularly dangerous when their offense clicks, as they have a 43-13 record in games where they score at least five runs. Their pitching staff has also been effective, with a 3.54 ERA over the last 10 games.

  • Key Players: Marcell Ozuna leads the Braves' powerful lineup with 37 home runs and a .597 slugging percentage. Jorge Soler has been hot recently, hitting .355 with four home runs and 10 RBI in his last 10 games.

Pitching Matchup

Phillies: Aaron Nola (11-6, 3.45 ERA)

  • Analysis: Nola has been one of the Phillies' most reliable starters, with a solid 3.45 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. His 142 strikeouts show his ability to miss bats, which will be crucial against the Braves' potent lineup.

Braves: Max Fried (7-7, 3.62 ERA)

  • Analysis: Fried has had an up-and-down season, reflected in his 7-7 record and 3.62 ERA. However, he has been effective overall, with a 1.25 WHIP and 115 strikeouts. The Braves will be counting on him to keep the Phillies' bats in check.

Favorite Bet: Braves to Win (-119)

  • Explanation: The Braves have been in good form, especially at home, and with Fried on the mound, they have a slight edge over the Phillies. This is the safer play given the current dynamics of both teams.

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Game Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Date & Time: Wednesday, 7:45 p.m. EDT

Location: St. Louis, Missouri

Team Overview

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Record: 73-52 (1st in NL Central)

  • Road Record: 35-28

  • Recent Form: The Brewers are on a six-game winning streak, with a strong pitching staff that leads the NL with a 3.67 ERA. Their offense, however, has been struggling, hitting just .185 over the last 10 games. Despite the low batting average, their pitching has carried them, allowing them to outscore opponents by just one run during this stretch.

  • Key Players: William Contreras is a consistent offensive threat, with 33 doubles, two triples, and 17 home runs this season. Willy Adames has been solid recently, contributing a double, a home run, and six RBI in his last 10 games.

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Record: 61-64 (3rd in NL Central)

  • Home Record: 32-30

  • Recent Form: The Cardinals have been struggling, going 2-8 in their last 10 games. Their offense is batting .238 during this stretch, and their pitching has been inconsistent with a 5.23 ERA, resulting in them being outscored by 19 runs.

  • Key Players: Brendan Donovan has been a key contributor with a .270 average, 27 doubles, nine home runs, and 54 RBI. Alec Burleson has shown some power recently, with two home runs in his last 10 games.

Pitching Matchup

Brewers: Tobias Myers (6-5, 2.81 ERA)

  • Analysis: Myers has been a standout for the Brewers with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He has been effective at keeping runners off base and limiting damage, which will be crucial against a Cardinals lineup that can be dangerous.

Cardinals: Kyle Gibson (7-5, 4.26 ERA)

  • Analysis: Gibson has had an up-and-down season with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He’s capable of delivering strong outings but has been inconsistent. The Cardinals will need him to step up against a Brewers team that has dominated them this season.

Favorite Bet: Brewers to Win (-108)

  • Explanation: The Brewers are on a roll, with excellent pitching leading the way. With Myers on the mound and the Cardinals struggling, Milwaukee is in a strong position to extend their win streak.

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Game Preview: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs

Date & Time: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT

Location: Chicago, Illinois

Team Overview

Chicago Cubs

  • Record: 62-64 (2nd in NL Central)

  • Home Record: 35-28

  • Recent Form: The Cubs are playing well at home with a 35-28 record. They’ve gone 6-4 in their last 10 games, largely thanks to strong pitching with a 2.97 ERA during that span. Their offense has been slightly below average, hitting just .225, but they've managed to outscore opponents by five runs.

  • Key Players: Cody Bellinger is leading the offense with a .276 batting average, 17 doubles, 13 home runs, and 50 RBI. Ian Happ has been in good form recently, with five home runs and seven RBI in his last 10 games.

Detroit Tigers

  • Record: 61-65 (4th in AL Central)

  • Road Record: 30-33

  • Recent Form: The Tigers have also been solid lately, going 6-4 in their last 10 games. Their pitching has been excellent, with a 2.02 ERA over that stretch, and they've managed to outscore opponents by 14 runs. Offensively, they're hitting .239 during this span.

  • Key Players: Riley Greene has been a standout for the Tigers, with 17 home runs and a .475 slugging percentage. Matt Vierling has also contributed recently, with 12 hits, including a home run, in his last 10 games.

Pitching Matchup

Cubs: Jameson Taillon (8-7, 3.62 ERA)

  • Analysis: Taillon has been solid for the Cubs with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He’s been reliable in limiting baserunners and has 96 strikeouts on the season. The Cubs will look to him to continue his strong form at home.

Tigers: TBD

  • Analysis: The Tigers have not yet announced their starting pitcher. Their recent success has been heavily reliant on their pitching, which has posted a 2.02 ERA over the last 10 games. Whoever starts will need to continue this trend to keep the Tigers competitive.

Favorite Bet: Cubs to Win (-161)

  • Explanation: The Cubs have been solid at home, and with Taillon pitching, they have a good chance to win. The Tigers' uncertainty regarding their starting pitcher makes this the safer option.

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Game Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Date & Time: Wednesday, 10:10 p.m. EDT

Location: Los Angeles, California

Team Overview

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Record: 75-52 (1st in NL West)

  • Home Record: 40-22

  • Recent Form: The Dodgers have been impressive, particularly at home, where they’ve won five straight games. They have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games, with a strong .259 batting average and a 3.07 ERA. They’ve outscored opponents by 11 runs in their recent stretch.

  • Key Players: Teoscar Hernández leads with 26 home runs, and Gavin Lux is heating up with 12 hits, including four home runs, over his last 10 games.

Seattle Mariners

  • Record: 64-63 (2nd in AL West)

  • Road Record: 27-37

  • Recent Form: The Mariners have struggled recently, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. They’ve hit just .196 and have been outscored by seven runs. However, they perform well when they out-hit their opponents, boasting a 45-6 record in such games.

  • Key Players: Cal Raleigh has been a key offensive player with 27 home runs, and Jorge Polanco is contributing with a .294 batting average and three home runs over his last 10 games.

Pitching Matchup

Dodgers: Jack Flaherty (9-5, 3.06 ERA)

  • Analysis: Flaherty has been solid this season with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. His ability to limit baserunners and strike out batters (157 strikeouts) makes him a tough opponent, especially at home.

Mariners: Logan Gilbert (7-9, 2.96 ERA)

  • Analysis: Gilbert has been excellent this season with a 2.96 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. He’s been effective in keeping opponents from scoring, which could be crucial against the Dodgers’ potent lineup.

Favorite Bet: Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (+130)

  • Explanation: Given the Dodgers’ current form, home advantage, and Flaherty’s solid pitching, they are likely to cover the run line, making this a good bet for higher payout.