Best Bets - 8/20/2024

Yo!

Another great night from our A.I. System. 7-3 on baseball yesterday. I’ve got more coming today. I’ve ran the simulations and the bets are in. If you want in on all the bets daily be sure you opt into our premium letter!

Game Overview

• Date & Time: Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. EDT

• Location: Miami, Florida

Team Overview

Miami Marlins

• Overall Record: 46-79

• Home Record: 24-40

• Recent Form: The Marlins have struggled mightily this season, particularly at home, with a 24-40 record. Over their last 10 games, they’ve gone 3-7, with a team ERA of 5.80, leading to a run differential of -19.

• Strengths: The Marlins have had success when their offense clicks, as evidenced by their 27-16 record in games where they score five or more runs.

• Weaknesses: Pitching has been a significant issue for Miami, with Edward Cabrera struggling to a 5.76 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Their home record also indicates challenges in defending their own ballpark.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Overall Record: 70-56

• Road Record: 33-30

• Recent Form: The Diamondbacks have been strong recently, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They’ve shown a solid offense, hitting .284 over that span, and have outscored opponents by 23 runs.

• Strengths: Arizona has the second-best on-base percentage in MLB at .333, highlighting their ability to get on base and create scoring opportunities. Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy have been key contributors to their recent success.

• Weaknesses: While Eduardo Rodriguez has a 5.06 ERA, indicating some vulnerability, the Diamondbacks’ recent form suggests they are capable of overcoming any pitching concerns.

Pitching Matchup

Marlins: Edward Cabrera (2-4, 5.76 ERA)

• Analysis: Cabrera has struggled this season with a high ERA and WHIP, indicating he allows too many baserunners. His 70 strikeouts show some strikeout ability, but inconsistency has been a problem.

Diamondbacks: Eduardo Rodriguez (1-0, 5.06 ERA)

• Analysis: Rodriguez has only made one start this season, but his ERA and WHIP suggest he’s been hittable. However, with the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive support, he may still be in a position to succeed.

Favorite Bet: Diamondbacks to Win (-154)

• Explanation: The Diamondbacks’ recent success, combined with the Marlins' struggles, particularly at home, makes Arizona the favored choice. Despite Rodriguez’s high ERA, the Diamondbacks' offense should provide enough support to secure the win.

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Game Overview

• Date & Time: Tuesday, 6:45 p.m. EDT

• Location: Washington, D.C.

Team Overview

Washington Nationals

• Overall Record: 56-69

• Home Record: 28-32

• Recent Form: The Nationals have had a middling season, with a slightly better record at home. They’ve gone 4-6 in their last 10 games, with a .250 batting average and a 4.04 ERA. Despite being outscored by 14 runs over that span, they’ve managed a respectable 43-25 record in games where they collect at least eight hits.

• Strengths: The Nationals’ ability to generate offense when they can string together hits has been a key factor in their victories. Keibert Ruiz and Alex Call have been recent bright spots in the lineup.

• Weaknesses: Their pitching has been inconsistent, and while their ERA over the last 10 games isn’t terrible, they’ve struggled to keep opponents off the scoreboard in key situations.

Colorado Rockies

• Overall Record: 46-79

• Road Record: 17-46

• Recent Form: The Rockies have had a tough season, particularly on the road, where they’ve struggled to a 17-46 record. Over their last 10 games, they’ve also gone 4-6, but with a higher team ERA of 6.40, they’ve been outscored by 18 runs.

• Strengths: Ryan McMahon has been a key performer for the Rockies, contributing with both power and consistency. Brendan Rodgers has also been hitting well recently.

• Weaknesses: The Rockies’ pitching has been a major issue, particularly on the road. Their 6.40 ERA over the last 10 games highlights their struggles to keep opposing offenses in check, especially when giving up home runs.

Pitching Matchup

Nationals: DJ Herz (2-5, 4.25 ERA)

• Analysis: Herz has shown some promise but has been inconsistent. His ERA and WHIP suggest he allows a fair number of baserunners, but he’s capable of delivering solid outings when he’s on his game. His strikeout numbers indicate he has the ability to miss bats.

Rockies: Austin Gomber (3-8, 4.82 ERA)

• Analysis: Gomber has had a challenging season, with a high ERA and WHIP. His strikeout rate is relatively low, meaning he tends to pitch to contact, which can be risky, especially in a hitter-friendly environment like Washington.

Favorite Bet: Nationals to Win (-152)

• Explanation: The Nationals’ slight edge in overall form, combined with the Rockies’ struggles on the road, makes Washington the safer bet in this matchup. Herz’s ability to keep the game in check should provide the Nationals enough of an advantage to secure the win.

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Game Overview

• Date & Time: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT

• Location: New York, NY

Team Overview

New York Yankees

• Overall Record: 73-52

• Home Record: 32-27

• Recent Form: The Yankees are coming off a 5-5 stretch in their last 10 games, with a .250 team batting average and a 4.50 ERA. Despite these numbers, they’ve managed to maintain a strong overall record, particularly when they hit well, as evidenced by their 59-16 record when recording at least eight hits.

• Strengths: The Yankees' power-hitting has been a significant factor this season, led by Aaron Judge, who has 44 home runs and a .331 average. They are capable of turning games around quickly with their explosive offense.

• Weaknesses: The Yankees’ pitching has been slightly inconsistent, as reflected by their recent 4.50 ERA over the last 10 games. They’ll need a strong performance from Luis Gil to keep the Guardians' offense in check.

Cleveland Guardians

• Overall Record: 72-52

• Road Record: 34-32

• Recent Form: The Guardians have also gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, but with a lower team batting average of .196, and a better ERA of 3.28. Despite their struggles at the plate, they’ve managed to keep games close due to their strong pitching.

• Strengths: Cleveland's pitching staff has been excellent, ranking second in the AL with a 3.74 ERA. Their ability to keep games low-scoring has been key to their success this season.

• Weaknesses: The Guardians’ offense has been a concern, particularly in recent games where they’ve struggled to hit consistently, as shown by their .196 average over the last 10 games.

Pitching Matchup

Yankees: Luis Gil (12-6, 3.25 ERA)

• Analysis: Gil has been solid for the Yankees this season, with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. His ability to strike out batters (141 strikeouts) has made him a reliable starter, and he’ll look to continue that trend against a Guardians lineup that has been struggling to hit.

Guardians: Matthew Boyd (0-0, 1.69 ERA)

• Analysis: Boyd has shown promise in limited action, with a 1.69 ERA and an impressive 0.56 WHIP. Although his sample size is small, he has been effective in the innings he’s pitched, and the Guardians will hope he can extend that success against the Yankees.

Favorite Bet: Yankees to Win (-167)

• Explanation: With the Yankees' strong home record, their ability to produce offense, and Gil on the mound, they have the edge. Despite the Guardians' strong pitching, their struggles at the plate make the Yankees the safer choice in this matchup.

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