Best Bets - 8/18/2024

Happy Sunday!

We’ve ran the simulations for today’s baseball games and this is what we’ve come up with. Enjoy some Sunday afternoon baseball and one of the few Sundays left without regular season football.

Get your affairs in order as football season is near!

Baltimore Orioles

• Overall Record: 72-52

• Home Record: 36-28

• Recent Form: The Orioles have been playing .500 baseball over their last 10 games, going 5-5. Their offense has been solid with a .275 team batting average, but their pitching has been slightly shaky with a 4.60 ERA during this stretch. Despite this, they’ve managed to outscore their opponents by two runs.

• Strengths: Baltimore has been strong at preventing home runs, with a 27-10 record in games where they don’t allow one. Their lineup is deep, and they have power throughout, as evidenced by Gunnar Henderson’s 32 home runs.

• Weaknesses: The Orioles’ pitching staff has shown vulnerability recently, which could be a concern if they face a potent Red Sox lineup.

Boston Red Sox

• Overall Record: 65-57

• Road Record: 36-25

• Recent Form: The Red Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 games, with a .248 team batting average and a concerning 6.10 ERA. They have been outscored by 11 runs during this stretch, reflecting recent struggles both on the mound and at the plate.

• Strengths: Boston boasts the best team batting average in the AL at .262. Their lineup, led by Rafael Devers, can be very dangerous, especially when they get into a rhythm.

• Weaknesses: The Red Sox have struggled with pitching lately, particularly in keeping opponents’ runs in check. Their recent road success is a positive sign, but they’ll need better pitching performances to keep winning.

Pitching Matchup

Kutter Crawford (Red Sox)

• Record: 8-9

• ERA: 4.21

• WHIP: 1.11

• Strikeouts: 129

• Analysis: Crawford has been a reliable starter for the Red Sox with a solid WHIP of 1.11, indicating good control and the ability to limit base runners. However, his ERA of 4.21 suggests he can be hittable at times, especially against a strong Orioles lineup.

Albert Suarez (Orioles)

• Record: 5-4

• ERA: 3.39

• WHIP: 1.29

• Strikeouts: 72

• Analysis: Suarez has been a strong performer for the Orioles, with a solid ERA and decent strikeout numbers. His WHIP of 1.29 shows that he allows a fair amount of base runners, but he has generally been effective at limiting damage.

Favorite Bet: Orioles to Win (-130)

• Explanation: The Orioles have been strong at home and have a slightly better pitching matchup with Suarez on the mound. Given Boston’s recent struggles, betting on Baltimore to win seems like a safe and profitable choice.

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Team Overview

Seattle Mariners

• Overall Record: 63-61

• Road Record: 26-35

• Recent Form: The Mariners have been struggling, currently on a five-game losing streak. Over their last 10 games, they have a 4-6 record, with a concerning .182 team batting average. Despite their offensive struggles, their pitching has remained decent with a 3.66 ERA.

• Strengths: When they manage to score five or more runs, the Mariners are incredibly effective, boasting a 39-4 record in such games. Their pitching, led by George Kirby, has been a bright spot.

• Weaknesses: The Mariners' offense has been ice-cold, with a very low batting average, which has been a major factor in their recent slump.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Overall Record: 58-64

• Home Record: 29-31

• Recent Form: The Pirates haven't fared much better recently, with a 2-8 record over their last 10 games. Despite this, they have managed a .260 team batting average, indicating that their offense is producing but their pitching has struggled, posting a 5.12 ERA.

• Strengths: The Pirates have done well when they reach the 8-hit mark, with a 41-23 record in such games. Bryan Reynolds has been a key contributor, leading the team in batting average.

• Weaknesses: Pitching has been a significant issue for the Pirates, which has contributed to their recent poor form.

Pitching Matchup

George Kirby (Mariners)

• Record: 8-9

• ERA: 3.42

• WHIP: 1.08

• Strikeouts: 143

• Analysis: Kirby has been one of the more reliable pitchers for the Mariners. His 3.42 ERA and low WHIP of 1.08 indicate strong command and the ability to limit base runners. He’ll be looking to bounce back and help snap Seattle’s losing streak.

Jake Woodford (Pirates)

• Record: 0-4

• ERA: 5.87

• WHIP: 1.26

• Strikeouts: 14

• Analysis: Woodford has struggled significantly this season, with a high ERA of 5.87 and limited strikeout numbers. He has yet to record a win, which could be a concern for the Pirates against a desperate Mariners team.

Favorite Bet: Mariners to Win (-157)

• Explanation: With George Kirby on the mound and Jake Woodford’s struggles, the Mariners should have the edge, despite their recent slump. Betting on Seattle to win offers a good balance of risk and reward.

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Team Overview

Washington Nationals

• Overall Record: 55-69

• Road Record: 27-37

• Recent Form: The Nationals are on a four-game losing streak and have struggled over their last 10 games with a 3-7 record. Their offense has been inconsistent, as indicated by their .242 team batting average during this stretch. Despite their struggles, they perform well when they manage to score five or more runs, with a 39-15 record in such games.

• Strengths: The Nationals have shown that they can be competitive when their offense clicks. C.J. Abrams has been a key contributor, showing power and speed with 25 doubles, six triples, and 17 home runs.

• Weaknesses: The Nationals have struggled on the road, and their pitching has been shaky, especially during their current losing streak.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Overall Record: 73-50

• Home Record: 42-22

• Recent Form: The Phillies are playing well, with a 6-4 record over their last 10 games. They have a strong offense, with a team batting average of .258, which ranks fifth in MLB. They also have dominated the Nationals this season, holding an 8-1 advantage in the season series.

• Strengths: Philadelphia’s offense is potent, led by Kyle Schwarber, who has slugged 28 home runs. Their home record is impressive, and they’ve shown the ability to outscore opponents in high-scoring games.

• Weaknesses: The Phillies' pitching has been somewhat inconsistent, as reflected in their 4.76 ERA over the last 10 games.

Pitching Matchup

Jake Irvin (Nationals)

• Record: 9-10

• ERA: 3.72

• WHIP: 1.13

• Strikeouts: 122

• Analysis: Irvin has been a reliable starter for the Nationals, posting a solid ERA and WHIP. He’ll need to be at his best to give Washington a chance to snap their losing streak against a tough Phillies lineup.

Taijuan Walker (Phillies)

• Record: 3-4

• ERA: 5.68

• WHIP: 1.51

• Strikeouts: 48

• Analysis: Walker has struggled this season, with a high ERA and WHIP. He’ll be looking to find some consistency and take advantage of the Nationals’ recent struggles.

Favorite Bet: Phillies to Win (-178)

• Explanation: With their strong home record, superior lineup, and dominance over the Nationals this season, the Phillies are the favorites in this matchup. Even though Taijuan Walker has struggled, the Phillies’ offense should give him enough support to secure a win.

BETS BELOW ARE RESERVED FOR PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS.

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