Best Bets - 8/17/2024

Happy Saturday,

The A.I. finished 4-5 yesterday. Even feel like we were on the right side of a few games that took a bad bounce. Diamondbacks and Phillies gave up 9th inning runs to flip us from 6-3 to 4-5. That’s why they play the game though. I think the algorithm put us in the right spots but you can’t win them all. Let’s get back to the prior day’s results and try to beat it’s 6-1 record from Thursday.

Little late today. We missed the early games. Sometimes life happens. I’ll get you the projections for the late games!

Also, next week we drop our first podcast episode. We will be previewing the upcoming college football season with our best future bets, win totals, and outlook on the season!

Team Analysis

Tampa Bay Rays

• Overall Record: 60-61

• Home Record: 32-34

• Recent Form: The Rays are struggling with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games, batting just .198 as a team. Their pitching has been decent with a 3.74 ERA, but they’ve been outscored by 12 runs.

• Strengths: The Rays are effective when they out-hit their opponents, with a strong record of 40-8 in such games. This indicates that when their offense clicks, they are tough to beat.

• Weaknesses: The Rays’ overall struggles, particularly at home, and recent poor form make them vulnerable in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Overall Record: 69-54

• Road Record: 32-28

• Recent Form: The Diamondbacks have been excellent, going 8-2 in their last 10 games with a .299 team batting average and a solid 3.43 ERA. They’ve outscored their opponents by 30 runs during this stretch.

• Strengths: Arizona’s slugging percentage ranks among the top in the majors, and they’ve been very successful when hitting well. Their recent form suggests they are in a strong position to continue their winning ways.

• Weaknesses: There are few visible weaknesses at the moment, given their recent performance. However, road games can always be challenging.

Pitching Matchup

Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks)

• Record: 9-5

• ERA: 3.69

• WHIP: 1.28

• Strikeouts: 99

• Strengths: Gallen has been solid this season, with a decent ERA and a respectable strikeout count. He’s capable of keeping the Rays’ struggling offense in check.

• Weaknesses: Gallen’s WHIP suggests he allows some baserunners, which could be a concern if the Rays’ bats wake up.

Jeffrey Springs (Rays)

• Record: 0-1

• ERA: 4.61

• WHIP: 1.61

• Strikeouts: 14

• Strengths: Springs is a left-handed pitcher, which could be advantageous if the Diamondbacks struggle against lefties.

• Weaknesses: His ERA and WHIP are higher than ideal, indicating that he might struggle against a hot Diamondbacks lineup. Springs has also not shown consistency in his outings.

Favorite Bet: Diamondbacks to Win (-118)

• Explanation: Arizona’s form, combined with Gallen’s solid pitching and Tampa Bay’s recent struggles, makes this the most appealing bet. The odds are favorable for a team that’s been playing well and has a good chance of extending their winning streak.

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Team Analysis

New York Mets

• Overall Record: 63-59

• Home Record: 32-31

• Recent Form: The Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 games with a .259 team batting average, but their pitching has struggled with a 5.02 ERA, leading to an overall run differential of -8 during this stretch.

• Strengths: The Mets have been effective when they out-hit their opponents, boasting a 51-14 record in such games. This indicates that their offense can be decisive when performing well.

• Weaknesses: Their recent pitching struggles and inconsistency at home could be potential vulnerabilities in this matchup.

Miami Marlins

• Overall Record: 45-77

• Road Record: 21-38

• Recent Form: The Marlins have had a tough time recently, going 3-7 in their last 10 games with a .237 batting average. Their pitching has been particularly problematic, with a 6.23 ERA and a run differential of -24 during this period.

• Strengths: While they’ve struggled overall, the Marlins do have some power in their lineup with players like Jake Burger, who has hit 24 home runs this season.

• Weaknesses: The Marlins have been poor on the road and are particularly vulnerable when they give up home runs, with a 24-57 record in such games.

Pitching Matchup

Max Meyer (Marlins)

• Record: 3-2

• ERA: 5.20

• WHIP: 1.27

• Strikeouts: 30

• Strengths: Meyer has shown flashes of potential, but his ERA suggests that he’s struggled to consistently keep runs off the board. His WHIP is decent, indicating that he doesn't allow a ton of baserunners.

• Weaknesses: The high ERA indicates that Meyer has been prone to giving up runs, which could be a concern against a Mets team that can capitalize on pitching mistakes.

Luis Severino (Mets)

• Record: 7-6

• ERA: 4.17

• WHIP: 1.26

• Strikeouts: 109

• Strengths: Severino has been solid for the Mets, with a respectable ERA and WHIP. He has good strikeout numbers, which suggests he can dominate when he’s on his game.

• Weaknesses: Severino has had some inconsistency, as reflected in his record and ERA. If he doesn’t have his best stuff, the Marlins could find opportunities to score.

Favorite Bet: Over 8.5 Total Runs (+100)

• Explanation: Given the recent pitching struggles of both teams and the potential for offensive fireworks, the over 8.5 runs offers good value. Both lineups have capable hitters, and with the Mets' bullpen being shaky recently, this game could easily surpass the 8.5 run total.

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Team Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

• Overall Record: 72-50

• Home Record: 41-22

• Recent Form: The Phillies are 6-4 in their last 10 games, with a solid .286 batting average. Their pitching has been somewhat shaky with a 4.86 ERA over this period, but they’ve managed to outscore opponents by three runs.

• Strengths: The Phillies’ pitching staff has been a strength this season, boasting a collective 3.72 ERA, which is the second-best in MLB. They also have a formidable offense, with Alec Bohm leading the team with a .296 batting average and significant power from other key players like Bryce Harper and Trea Turner.

• Weaknesses: While the Phillies have been strong overall, their recent pitching struggles suggest some vulnerability, particularly in the bullpen.

Washington Nationals

• Overall Record: 55-68

• Road Record: 27-36

• Recent Form: The Nationals are 4-6 in their last 10 games, with a .275 batting average and a 4.20 ERA, leading to a run differential of -9. Despite their struggles, they have shown resilience, especially when they limit home runs.

• Strengths: The Nationals perform well in games where they keep the ball in the park, with a 26-17 record when not allowing a home run. C.J. Abrams and Keibert Ruiz have been key contributors offensively, with Abrams leading the team in extra-base hits.

• Weaknesses: The Nationals have had trouble on the road and have struggled against the Phillies this season, going 1-7 in the season series.

Pitching Matchup

MacKenzie Gore (Nationals)

• Record: 7-10

• ERA: 4.50

• WHIP: 1.57

• Strikeouts: 130

• Strengths: Gore has solid strikeout numbers and can be effective when he’s on his game. He has the ability to limit damage when he finds his rhythm.

• Weaknesses: His ERA and WHIP indicate inconsistency, and facing a potent Phillies lineup could be challenging. Gore has struggled with command at times, leading to a high number of baserunners.

Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies)

• Record: 8-8

• ERA: 3.63

• WHIP: 1.32

• Strikeouts: 104

• Strengths: Sanchez has been a solid contributor to the Phillies' rotation, with a respectable ERA and WHIP. He’s capable of keeping opposing offenses in check, especially at home.

• Weaknesses: Sanchez has had occasional lapses, and with the Nationals’ lineup showing some life recently, he’ll need to be careful not to let them gain momentum early.

Favorite Bet: Phillies -1.5 Run Line (+100)

• Explanation: Given their strong record against the Nationals and home-field advantage, the Phillies covering the 1.5-run spread offers good value. They’ve shown they can dominate this matchup, and with Sanchez on the mound, they’re in a strong position to win by multiple runs.

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