Best Bets - 8/15/2024

Good Morning!

Life happened yesterday and I didn’t get to fire up the A.I. to run predictive analysis. My apologies on that! We are back today with a light schedule and ready to go.

The first A.I. Smart Sports Betting podcast is dropping next week. We will be previewing the upcoming college football season and sharing some of our favorite futures and win total over/under bets. I really enjoy having a few bets to root for throughout the entire season. This will be fun. Will share here when the episode drops.

Oakland Athletics (51-70, 5th in the AL West) vs. New York Mets (62-58, 3rd in the NL East)

Location: New York; Thursday, 1:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Probables:

• Athletics: Mitch Spence (7-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 86 strikeouts)

• Mets: Jose Quintana (6-8, 4.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 102 strikeouts)

Line:

• Mets: -185

• Athletics: +155

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -125, Under +105)

• Athletics +1.5: -135

• Mets -1.5: +115

Bottom Line: The New York Mets host the Oakland Athletics following a dominant 9-1 victory, highlighted by Pete Alonso’s four-hit performance.

Team Records:

• New York Mets: 31-30 at home, 62-58 overall. The Mets excel in close games with a 21-12 record in one-run contests.

• Oakland Athletics: 22-40 on the road, 51-70 overall. The Athletics have a solid 33-10 record in games where they score at least five runs.

Top Performers:

• Mets:

  • Francisco Lindor: 30 doubles, 23 home runs.

  • Jeff McNeil: 9-for-37 with three doubles, two home runs, and two RBI over the past 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

• Mets: 4-6, .247 batting average, 4.34 ERA, outscored by six runs.

• Athletics: 5-5, .222 batting average, 3.99 ERA, outscored by 10 runs.

Best Bet:

• Over 8.5 Runs (-125)
  Both teams have been allowing runs recently, and with neither pitcher boasting dominant stats, the over seems a strong play. The Athletics’ ability to score in bunches when they get hot and the Mets' home field advantage could push the total over 8.5 runs.

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Seattle Mariners (63-58, 2nd in the AL West) vs. Detroit Tigers (58-63, 4th in the AL Central)

Location: Detroit; Thursday, 1:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Probables:

• Mariners: Bryce Miller (9-7, 3.46 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 119 strikeouts)

• Tigers: Alex Faedo (5-3, 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 53 strikeouts)

Line:

• Mariners: -156

• Tigers: +132

• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over +110, Under -130)

• Mariners -1.5: +110

• Tigers +1.5: -130

Bottom Line: The Seattle Mariners are looking to snap a three-game road losing streak as they face the Detroit Tigers.

Team Records:

• Detroit Tigers: 28-31 at home, 58-63 overall. The Tigers' pitching staff has a collective 3.92 ERA, ranking seventh in the AL.

• Seattle Mariners: 26-32 on the road, 63-58 overall. The Mariners have a strong 33-14 record when they record at least eight hits in a game.

Season Series: This is the sixth matchup between these teams this season, with the Tigers leading the series 4-1.

Top Performers:

• Mariners:

  • Randy Arozarena: 24 doubles, 16 home runs, and 42 RBI, hitting .222.

  • Jorge Polanco: 9-for-38 with two doubles and two home runs over the past 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

• Tigers: 6-4, .262 batting average, 2.59 ERA, outscored opponents by 18 runs.

• Mariners: 5-5, .188 batting average, 3.70 ERA, outscored by four runs.

Best Bet:

• Under 8.5 Runs (-130)

  With both teams' recent struggles at the plate and strong pitching performances, especially from the Tigers' staff, the under on 8.5 runs looks like a solid bet. The Mariners' recent low batting average and the Tigers' consistent ERA support this choice.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (71-50, 1st in the NL West) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (68-52, 1st in the NL Central)

Location: Milwaukee; Thursday, 2:10 p.m. EDT

Pitching Probables:

• Dodgers: Jack Flaherty (9-5, 2.97 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 150 strikeouts)

• Brewers: Tobias Myers (6-5, 2.79 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 84 strikeouts)

Line:

• Dodgers: -155

• Brewers: +130

• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -130, Under +110)

• Dodgers -1.5: +115

• Brewers +1.5: -135

Bottom Line: The Los Angeles Dodgers aim to win the series against the Milwaukee Brewers, currently leading 2-1.

Team Records:

• Milwaukee Brewers: 34-24 at home, 68-52 overall. The Brewers boast a strong .332 on-base percentage, ranking second in the NL.

• Los Angeles Dodgers: 33-28 on the road, 71-50 overall. The Dodgers have one of the best team slugging percentages in MLB at .434, ranking fourth.

Season Series: The Dodgers lead the season series 4-2.

Top Performers:

• Brewers:

  • William Contreras: 32 doubles, 2 triples, 15 home runs.

  • Jackson Chourio: 14-for-41 with a double and 2 home runs over the last 10 games.

• Dodgers:

  • Shohei Ohtani: 37 home runs, 66 walks, 86 RBI, hitting .295.

  • Freddie Freeman: 12-for-37 with 3 doubles, a home run, and 4 RBI over the past 10 games.

Last 10 Games:

• Brewers: 6-4, .261 batting average, 3.64 ERA, outscored opponents by 19 runs.

• Dodgers: 7-3, .256 batting average, 3.00 ERA, outscored opponents by 9 runs.

Best Bet:

• Dodgers Moneyline (-155)

  Given the Dodgers' overall consistency, particularly with Jack Flaherty on the mound, and their strong record both on the road and in the series, backing the Dodgers to win straight up is the recommended bet.

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