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- Best Bets - 8/12/2024
Best Bets - 8/12/2024
Good Morning!
Happy Monday. Since it is Monday, I’ll be releasing the whole list of bets to both premium and free subscribers. These are what my A.I. is telling me is the best bets of the day:
P.S.
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Pitching Matchup:
Cubs: Shota Imanaga
Record: 9-2
ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.05
Strikeouts: 128
Recent Form: Imanaga has been consistent and reliable, with a solid ERA and a low WHIP. His strikeout ability is notable, and he's been effective in limiting baserunners.
Guardians: Ben Lively
Record: 10-7
ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.17
Strikeouts: 92
Recent Form: Lively has also been strong but has a slightly higher ERA and WHIP compared to Imanaga. He's effective but has allowed more baserunners.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
Cleveland Guardians:
Record: 3-7
Batting Average: .226
ERA: 5.16
Runs Scored: Outscored by 12 runs
Analysis: The Guardians have struggled recently, both at the plate and on the mound. Their batting average is low, and their pitching has been subpar, with a 5.16 ERA over the last 10 games. This indicates a cold streak for Cleveland.
Chicago Cubs:
Record: 8-2
Batting Average: .287
ERA: 3.10
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 26 runs
Analysis: The Cubs have been hot, performing well both offensively and defensively. Their batting average is strong, and their pitching staff has been efficient, reflected in their low ERA. They’ve been dominant over their last 10 games.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Moneyline Bet
Recommendation: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-118)
Reasoning: The Cubs have been on a hot streak, winning 8 of their last 10 games, with a strong .287 team batting average and a solid 3.10 ERA. Shota Imanaga has been excellent this season, with a low ERA and WHIP, making him a tough opponent for the struggling Guardians. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been cold, with a poor .226 team batting average and a concerning 5.16 ERA over their last 10 games.
Alternative Bet: Total Runs Under 8.5 (-125)
Reasoning: Despite the Cubs’ recent success, both starting pitchers have solid ERAs, and the Guardians' offensive struggles could lead to a low-scoring game. The Guardians also have a strong overall team ERA, which could help keep the total runs under 8.5.
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Matchup Breakdown: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pitching Matchup:
Cardinals: Sonny Gray
Record: 11-6
ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.07
Strikeouts: 153
Recent Form: Gray has been solid throughout the season with a respectable ERA and an excellent WHIP, indicating strong control and the ability to limit baserunners. His strikeout rate is high, which should help him against a Reds lineup that has been inconsistent.
Reds: Andrew Abbott
Record: 9-9
ERA: 3.70
WHIP: 1.31
Strikeouts: 104
Recent Form: Abbott has been decent but not as sharp as Gray. His WHIP is higher, suggesting that he allows more baserunners, and his strikeout rate is lower. He’ll face a Cardinals lineup that has been slightly underperforming in recent games.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
Cincinnati Reds:
Record: 5-5
Batting Average: .233
ERA: 4.19
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 5 runs
Analysis: The Reds have been mediocre, with a batting average on the lower side and a pitching staff that has been middle-of-the-road. They've managed to stay competitive but haven't shown a strong edge in recent games.
St. Louis Cardinals:
Record: 4-6
Batting Average: .249
ERA: 5.12
Runs Scored: Outscored by 13 runs
Analysis: The Cardinals have struggled, especially on the mound, with a 5.12 ERA over their last 10 games. Offensively, they’ve been slightly better than the Reds but still not at their best, leading to more losses than wins recently.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Moneyline Bet
Recommendation: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+115)
Reasoning: While Sonny Gray has been the better pitcher overall, the Cardinals have been struggling recently, especially on the road. The Reds, although not stellar, have a slight edge at home and have been slightly better in the last 10 games. Given the value in the odds and the Cardinals' recent inconsistency, a bet on the Reds as underdogs could provide a good return.
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Matchup Breakdown: Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching Matchup:
Astros: Framber Valdez
Record: 11-5
ERA: 3.46
WHIP: 1.19
Strikeouts: 113
Recent Form: Valdez has been a strong and reliable starter for the Astros, with a solid ERA and a decent WHIP. He has the ability to control the game and limit baserunners, making him a tough opponent for any lineup.
Rays: Taj Bradley
Record: 6-6
ERA: 3.07
WHIP: 1.09
Strikeouts: 106
Recent Form: Bradley has been impressive, with a lower ERA and WHIP than Valdez, indicating strong command and effectiveness on the mound. He’s been consistent in keeping runs off the board and striking out batters.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
Tampa Bay Rays:
Record: 4-6
Batting Average: .228
ERA: 3.52
Runs Scored: Outscored by 5 runs
Analysis: The Rays have struggled offensively, with a low batting average over the last 10 games. Their pitching has been solid with a 3.52 ERA, but the lack of run support has been a significant issue.
Houston Astros:
Record: 7-3
Batting Average: .257
ERA: 3.09
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 12 runs
Analysis: The Astros have been in good form, both offensively and defensively. Their .257 batting average and 3.09 ERA indicate they’ve been getting it done on both sides of the ball. This strong overall performance has contributed to their current five-game win streak.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Moneyline Bet
Recommendation: Houston Astros Moneyline (-130)
Reasoning: The Astros are on a five-game win streak and have been playing well in all facets of the game. Framber Valdez, while slightly less effective than Taj Bradley this season, has the experience and the support of a more consistent offense behind him. The Rays, meanwhile, have struggled to generate offense lately, making it challenging to support them against a hot Astros team.
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Matchup Breakdown: Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Pitching Matchup:
Rangers: Tyler Mahle
Record: 0-1
ERA: 1.80
WHIP: 1.20
Strikeouts: 2
Recent Form: Mahle has only one start under his belt this season, so the sample size is small. However, his ERA is excellent, indicating he was effective in that start, though his WHIP suggests he did allow some baserunners.
Red Sox: Brayan Bello
Record: 0-0
Recent Form: Bello hasn’t pitched yet this season, which means there’s uncertainty about how he’ll perform. This could make him a wild card in this game, but the lack of recent data makes it difficult to gauge his form.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
Boston Red Sox:
Record: 5-5
Batting Average: .270
ERA: 5.87
Runs Scored: Outscored by 4 runs
Analysis: The Red Sox have been hitting well, with a solid .270 team batting average over their last 10 games. However, their pitching has been problematic, with a 5.87 ERA, leading to more runs allowed than scored. This indicates inconsistency, particularly on the mound.
Texas Rangers:
Record: 3-7
Batting Average: .228
ERA: 6.44
Runs Scored: Outscored by 23 runs
Analysis: The Rangers have struggled significantly, both at the plate and on the mound. Their .228 batting average is low, and their pitching staff has been poor, with a 6.44 ERA. This combination has led to a rough stretch, with only three wins in their last 10 games.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Total
Total Runs Over 9.5 (-110)
Reasoning: Both teams have shown vulnerability in pitching, with Boston's 5.87 ERA and Texas's 6.44 ERA over the last 10 games. Given these struggles and Boston's ability to score when their offense is clicking, the game could easily go over the 9.5 total runs, especially if either starting pitcher falters.
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Matchup Breakdown: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Pitching Matchup:
Royals: Brady Singer
Record: 8-7
ERA: 3.03
WHIP: 1.19
Strikeouts: 121
Recent Form: Singer has been solid this season, with an impressive ERA and WHIP, indicating his ability to limit both runs and baserunners. His consistency on the mound makes him a tough matchup for opposing teams, and his strikeout numbers are respectable.
Twins: Pablo Lopez
Record: 10-8
ERA: 4.74
WHIP: 1.16
Strikeouts: 144
Recent Form: Lopez has had an up-and-down season with a higher ERA than Singer, but his WHIP remains strong, suggesting that he has been able to avoid too much traffic on the bases. His high strikeout total is a positive, but he’s been prone to giving up runs.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
Minnesota Twins:
Record: 6-4
Batting Average: .255
ERA: 3.89
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 13 runs
Analysis: The Twins have been playing well, with a solid batting average and a respectable ERA. Their offense has been productive, and their pitching has been good enough to outscore opponents consistently. Playing at home, they’ve been strong this season.
Kansas City Royals:
Record: 6-4
Batting Average: .286
ERA: 3.65
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 21 runs
Analysis: The Royals have been hot, with a high batting average and an ERA that’s been effective enough to support their offense. They’ve been scoring runs efficiently and have outperformed their opponents by a wider margin than the Twins over their last 10 games.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Moneyline Bet
Recommendation: Kansas City Royals Moneyline (+130)
Reasoning: The Royals have been in excellent form over the last 10 games, with a higher batting average and a better ERA than the Twins. Brady Singer’s consistent pitching gives the Royals a solid chance to win, especially given the value in their odds as underdogs. The Twins have been strong at home, but Lopez’s inconsistency on the mound could give Kansas City an edge.
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Matchup Breakdown: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching Matchup:
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw
Record: 0-2
ERA: 4.38
WHIP: 1.62
Strikeouts: 11
Recent Form: Kershaw has struggled in limited action this season, with a higher ERA and WHIP than usual. His performance has been inconsistent, which could be a concern against a strong Brewers lineup. His 1.62 WHIP suggests he has been allowing too many baserunners.
Brewers: Freddy Peralta
Record: 7-6
ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.22
Strikeouts: 155
Recent Form: Peralta has been solid this season, with a good strikeout rate and a WHIP that indicates he limits baserunners effectively. His ERA is a bit high, but he’s been more consistent than Kershaw, particularly in striking out batters.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
Milwaukee Brewers:
Record: 6-4
Batting Average: .281
ERA: 3.68
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 25 runs
Analysis: The Brewers have been strong over their last 10 games, both offensively and defensively. Their .281 batting average is impressive, and their 3.68 ERA indicates that their pitching has been effective. They have a significant run differential, which suggests they’ve been winning convincingly.
Los Angeles Dodgers:
Record: 6-4
Batting Average: .245
ERA: 3.54
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 4 runs
Analysis: The Dodgers have been good but not as dominant as the Brewers recently. Their .245 batting average is lower than Milwaukee’s, and while their 3.54 ERA is slightly better, they haven’t been outscoring their opponents by as large a margin. However, the Dodgers remain a dangerous team with strong hitting depth.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Moneyline Bet
Recommendation: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-110)
Reasoning: The Brewers have been hotter offensively, and Peralta has been more consistent on the mound than Kershaw this season. With the Brewers playing at home and showing a strong run differential over their last 10 games, they seem to have a slight edge in this matchup. Kershaw’s struggles, combined with Milwaukee’s strong recent form, make the Brewers a good bet at home.
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Matchup Breakdown: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Pitching Matchup:
Yankees: Luis Gil
Record: 12-5
ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.11
Strikeouts: 138
Recent Form: Gil has been a reliable starter for the Yankees, boasting a solid ERA and WHIP. His ability to limit baserunners and strike out batters consistently makes him a strong option against a struggling White Sox lineup.
White Sox: Ky Bush
Record: 0-1
ERA: 6.75
WHIP: 1.75
Strikeouts: 3
Recent Form: Bush has struggled in his limited appearances, with a high ERA and WHIP. He has not been able to effectively manage baserunners or keep runs off the board, which is a concern against a potent Yankees lineup.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
Chicago White Sox:
Record: 1-9
Batting Average: .208
ERA: 6.35
Runs Scored: Outscored by 30 runs
Analysis: The White Sox have been in a serious slump, with poor offensive production and a struggling pitching staff. Their .208 batting average and 6.35 ERA over the last 10 games highlight their struggles on both sides of the ball.
New York Yankees:
Record: 6-4
Batting Average: .279
ERA: 5.04
Runs Scored: Even run differential
Analysis: The Yankees have been solid, though their ERA is higher than usual. However, their offense has been productive, batting .279 over the last 10 games. Despite their slightly elevated ERA, they’ve managed to stay competitive and continue winning games.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Runline Bet
Recommendation: New York Yankees -2.5 (-120)
Reasoning: The Yankees are heavy favorites, and given the White Sox’s struggles, particularly on the mound with Bush’s high ERA and WHIP, the Yankees should be able to win by a significant margin. Gil’s strong pitching gives the Yankees a solid chance to dominate this game, and the -2.5 runline provides better value than the moneyline.
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Matchup Breakdown: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Pitching Matchup:
Blue Jays: Bowden Francis
Record: 4-3
ERA: 5.44
WHIP: 1.39
Strikeouts: 43
Recent Form: Francis has struggled with a high ERA and WHIP, indicating challenges with both run prevention and control. His inconsistency on the mound could make him vulnerable against an Angels lineup that can score runs when they’re in form.
Angels: Davis Daniel
Record: 1-3
ERA: 6.04
WHIP: 1.38
Strikeouts: 23
Recent Form: Daniel has had a tough season, with an ERA over 6.00, showing difficulty in keeping opposing teams off the scoreboard. His WHIP is also concerning, suggesting he allows a significant number of baserunners.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
Los Angeles Angels:
Record: 5-5
Batting Average: .259
ERA: 3.40
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 5 runs
Analysis: The Angels have been playing fairly well recently, with a decent batting average and a strong team ERA over the last 10 games. They’ve managed to outscore their opponents, though only by a small margin, indicating close games.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Record: 4-6
Batting Average: .236
ERA: 4.90
Runs Scored: Outscored by 12 runs
Analysis: The Blue Jays have struggled, particularly with their pitching staff, as reflected in their near-5.00 ERA over the last 10 games. Offensively, they’ve also been underwhelming, hitting just .236 and being outscored by 12 runs over this stretch.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Total Runs Over/Under
Recommendation: Over 9.5 (+115)
Reasoning: Both starting pitchers have high ERAs, suggesting that runs could be plentiful in this matchup. The Blue Jays’ recent struggles on the mound combined with the Angels’ ability to score in bunches when they’re on point make the over a strong play, especially with a low line of 9.5.
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Matchup Breakdown: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup:
Rockies: Cal Quantrill
Record: 7-8
ERA: 4.56
WHIP: 1.41
Strikeouts: 92
Recent Form: Quantrill has had a challenging season, with a high ERA and WHIP, indicating struggles with both run prevention and control. This could be a concern against an Arizona lineup that has been hitting well recently.
Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt
Record: 6-6
ERA: 3.92
WHIP: 1.11
Strikeouts: 124
Recent Form: Pfaadt has been solid with a sub-4.00 ERA and a low WHIP, showing good control and the ability to limit baserunners. He’s been a steady presence on the mound for the Diamondbacks.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
Arizona Diamondbacks:
Record: 8-2
Batting Average: .295
ERA: 4.30
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 23 runs
Analysis: The Diamondbacks have been on a hot streak, winning 8 of their last 10 games. They’ve been hitting exceptionally well with a .295 team batting average and have outscored opponents by a significant margin. Their pitching has been decent, with a team ERA of 4.30, but their offensive firepower has been the key.
Colorado Rockies:
Record: 5-5
Batting Average: .253
ERA: 6.07
Runs Scored: Outscored by 13 runs
Analysis: The Rockies have been middling in their last 10 games, with a 5-5 record. However, their pitching has been a significant weakness, with a team ERA over 6.00. Their offense has been decent, hitting .253, but they’ve still been outscored by their opponents during this stretch.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Runline Bet
Recommendation: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110)
Reasoning: The Diamondbacks have been dominant in recent games, both in terms of offense and overall performance. Given the Rockies' poor road record and struggles on the mound, Arizona is well-positioned to win by more than one run. With Pfaadt’s solid pitching and the Diamondbacks’ hot bats, the -1.5 runline offers good value.
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Matchup Breakdown: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Pitching Matchup:
Pirates: Marco Gonzales
Record: 1-1
ERA: 4.54
WHIP: 1.60
Strikeouts: 23
Recent Form: Gonzales has had a challenging season with a high ERA and WHIP, indicating he struggles with both run prevention and allowing baserunners. His performance could be a weak link against a strong Padres lineup.
Padres: Joe Musgrove
Record: 0-0
ERA: N/A (making first start of the season)
WHIP: N/A
Strikeouts: N/A
Recent Form: Musgrove is making his first start of the season, which introduces some uncertainty. However, he has typically been a solid performer in past seasons, so his form and how he adapts will be crucial.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
San Diego Padres:
Record: 8-2
Batting Average: .287
ERA: 3.33
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 25 runs
Analysis: The Padres have been exceptional recently, with a high batting average and strong pitching performance. They’ve been dominant, outscoring their opponents significantly and showing both offensive and defensive strength.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
Record: 1-9
Batting Average: .263
ERA: 5.92
Runs Scored: Outscored by 17 runs
Analysis: The Pirates have been struggling, with a poor record and weak pitching. Their ERA is notably high, and while their batting average is decent, their overall performance has been lacking, especially in recent games.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Runline Bet
Recommendation: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+130)
Reasoning: Given the Padres' strong recent form, both offensively and defensively, and the Pirates' current struggles, San Diego is likely to win by more than one run. Despite Musgrove’s uncertain return, the Padres' overall team strength and recent performance make the -1.5 runline a valuable bet.
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Matchup Breakdown: Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
Pitching Matchup:
Braves: Chris Sale
Record: 13-3
ERA: 2.75
WHIP: 1.00
Strikeouts: 165
Recent Form: Sale has been outstanding this season with a low ERA and excellent WHIP. His strikeout rate and overall effectiveness make him a formidable opponent for any lineup.
Giants: Blake Snell
Record: 2-3
ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.10
Strikeouts: 80
Recent Form: Snell has been inconsistent, with a higher ERA and less dominance compared to Sale. His WHIP is solid, but his overall performance has not matched up to Sale’s elite level.
Team Performance Over Last 10 Games:
San Francisco Giants:
Record: 7-3
Batting Average: .241
ERA: 3.74
Runs Scored: Outscored opponents by 13 runs
Analysis: The Giants have been effective, particularly with their pitching, as indicated by a solid ERA. Despite a lower batting average, their pitching has been strong, which has contributed to their good record.
Atlanta Braves:
Record: 3-7
Batting Average: .264
ERA: 7.16
Runs Scored: Outscored by 25 runs
Analysis: The Braves have struggled recently, especially with pitching, as evidenced by their high ERA. Despite a decent batting average, their poor pitching performance has hurt them.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Bet Type: Moneyline Bet
Recommendation: Atlanta Braves (-118)
Reasoning: Despite the Braves' recent struggles, Chris Sale's dominant pitching performance provides a significant edge over Blake Snell. The Braves are likely to perform better with Sale on the mound, making them a solid bet to win the game outright.