Best Bets - 8/13/2025

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Our A.I. has cooked up a few more bets for today that I am really liking! Let’s take a look!

Free Bet of the Day

Breakdown: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers

Date & Time: Wednesday, 2:35 p.m. EDT

Venue: Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas

Pitching Probables:

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (9-12, 5.31 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 130 strikeouts)

  • Texas Rangers: Merrill Kelly (9-7, 3.37 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 131 strikeouts)

  • Texas Rangers:

    • Record: 61-60 overall, 37-25 at home

    • Strengths: Rangers pitchers have a collective 3.31 ERA, leading MLB. They are particularly strong at home, where they have a winning record.

    • Recent Form: 4-6 in their last 10 games with a .236 batting average, 3.87 ERA, outscored by 6 runs. Offense has cooled off slightly recently, but pitching remains solid.

  • Arizona Diamondbacks:

    • Record: 58-62 overall, 28-32 on the road

    • Strengths: Second in the NL with 168 home runs, showing the ability to hit for power even on the road.

    • Recent Form: 7-3 in their last 10 games with a .275 batting average, 3.91 ERA, outscoring opponents by 18 runs. Diamondbacks are riding strong momentum into this matchup.

Key Players:

  • Texas Rangers:

    • Josh Smith: .268 average, 20 doubles, 9 home runs, 39 walks, 30 RBI

    • Kyle Higashioka: 10-for-34 over the last 10 games with 3 home runs and 5 RBI

  • Arizona Diamondbacks:

    • Ketel Marte: 17 doubles, 22 home runs, key offensive contributor

    • Corbin Carroll: 11-for-41 over the last 10 games with 5 home runs, a hot bat heading into this matchup

Pitching Matchup Notes:

  • Zac Gallen has struggled this season, posting a 5.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, which could be exploited by a power-hitting Rangers lineup at home.

  • Merrill Kelly has been much more consistent, with a 3.37 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and he’s comfortable pitching at home in Arlington. Kelly is more likely to limit Arizona’s power.

Betting Breakdown:

Moneyline:

  • Rangers -149: Home-field advantage and the pitching edge make Texas the clear favorite.

  • Diamondbacks +124: Arizona has been hot recently and could keep it close, offering good value for a potential upset.

Run Line:

  • Rangers -1.5 +120: With Kelly on the mound and the Rangers’ power at home, winning by more than one run is possible.

  • Diamondbacks +1.5 -145: If Gallen keeps it competitive, Arizona can cover the run line, especially with their hot offense.

Over/Under:

  • Over 8 runs: Both teams have shown power lately, and Gallen has struggled. The over is appealing if the Diamondbacks’ offense stays hot.

  • Under 8 runs: If Kelly dominates and the Rangers’ bats stall, the under is possible, but the recent scoring trends favor the over.

Final Bet Recommendation:

  • Moneyline: Rangers -149 – home advantage + pitching edge

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