Best Bets - 7/30/2024

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Good Morning!

We went 1-1 yesterday with our bets. Be sure to check out the sponsor of today’s letter “Branded Bills.”

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Best Bets:

DET Tigers +1.5 (-125)

PHI Phillies ML (-120)

NY Mets ML (-125)

I’m going with 3 best bets today. This is the data my algorithm is giving me for each bet:

Tigers 3.9 - Guardians 4.1 - My algorithm is projecting the Guardians to win slightly but in over 2500 simulations the Tigers won outright 49.4% of the time. The Tigers have the better pitcher on the mound and are at home. They could win this outright but I'll take the run line to give us the extra cushion in a close game.

Phillies 3.9 - Yankees 3.8 - Phillies are at home and have a big pitching advantage today. My algorithm has Philly winning outright 53% of the time. They took a beating yesterday at home. Good teams tend to bounce back from that and with a good pitcher on the mound I (along with my algorithm) like the Phillies in a bounce back spot here.

Mets 4.1 - Twins 3.9 - The Mets took nearly 55% of the simulated wins in this matchup. You’ll notice a trend. The Mets have the advantage on the mound today and are at home. I think it’s enough to get the job done.

Let’s have a day!

-Caleb