Best Bets - 7/6/2025

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Full Breakdown: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs

Pitching Matchup:

1. St. Louis Cardinals - Erick Fedde (3-8, 4.56 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 57 strikeouts):

   • Fedde has been struggling this season with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, indicating that he’s had issues with both allowing hits and walking batters. While his ERA isn’t terrible, he’s prone to giving up runs, which could be problematic against a solid Cubs lineup.

   • Key Strengths: Solid control but limited strikeout upside.

   • Key Weaknesses: Prone to giving up hard contact and can get into trouble with walks.

2. Chicago Cubs - Matthew Boyd (8-3, 2.65 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 87 strikeouts):

   • Boyd has been excellent this season with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, showing the ability to keep base runners to a minimum and get outs with his strikeouts. His ERA and WHIP reflect his consistency in limiting damage, and he’s been a reliable part of the Cubs’ rotation.

   • Key Strengths: Excellent ERA and WHIP, ability to generate strikeouts and limit base runners.

   • Key Weaknesses: Can sometimes struggle with giving up home runs, but he has been mostly effective.

Offensive Overview:

1. St. Louis Cardinals:

   • Offense: The Cardinals have a solid lineup, with Brendan Donovan leading the charge with a .296 batting average and 22 doubles. However, they’ve struggled to generate consistent offense recently, as seen in their 4-6 record over the last 10 games and .216 batting average during that stretch.

   • Key Performers: Donovan, Masyn Winn has been a bright spot, and Nolan Arenado remains dangerous in the middle of the lineup.

   • Key Strengths: Solid overall depth, but inconsistent at times. Donovan and Winn are performing well.

   • Key Weaknesses: Offensive consistency has been a concern. Winn and others need to provide more support for Arenado and Goldschmidt.

2. Chicago Cubs:

   • Offense: The Cubs have been excellent offensively, ranking 2nd in the NL with a .256 batting average. Seiya Suzuki has been a major contributor with 24 home runs and .551 slugging, and Michael Busch has been on fire recently, hitting .472 over the past 10 games with 6 home runs.

   • Key Performers: Suzuki, Busch, and Cody Bellinger have been providing a ton of production.

   • Key Strengths: High offensive output, great balance in the lineup.

   • Key Weaknesses: At times, they’ve been a little too reliant on power, though it’s been working for them recently.

Team Performance and Trends:

1. St. Louis Cardinals:

   • Recent Form: The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 games with a .216 batting average. They’ve also been struggling on the road with a 22-25 record. While Fedde has had some success, the offense has been underwhelming, particularly in the last 10 games.

   • Key Strengths: Solid pitching at times, but the offense has been a problem.

   • Key Weaknesses: Offensive inconsistency, particularly in road games.

2. Chicago Cubs:

   • Recent Form: The Cubs are in good form with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games, hitting .265 and outscoring opponents by 26 runs. Boyd has been a big part of their success, and the offense has been clicking with Suzuki and Busch leading the charge.

   • Key Strengths: Hot offense and excellent pitching from Boyd.

   • Key Weaknesses: They can struggle against elite pitchers, but overall they’ve been firing on all cylinders recently.

Betting Analysis:

1. Chicago Cubs (-208):

   • The Cubs come into this game with strong momentum, having won 7 of their last 10 games and with Boyd on the mound. Boyd has been dominant, and the Cubs have a clear edge in recent form, both offensively and defensively. The Cardinals have struggled to generate offense recently, and with Fedde on the mound, the Cubs are likely to take advantage of any opportunities.

   • Betting on the Cubs is a strong recommendation, but the -208 moneyline is steep. If you’re willing to bet on a dominant performance, this is the safer option, though not the most lucrative.

2. St. Louis Cardinals (+171):

   • The Cardinals are capable of pulling off an upset, especially with their capable lineup, but their current form is inconsistent. Fedde can surprise at times, but the Cubs’ lineup is far more dangerous. The Cardinals have had their struggles both at the plate and on the mound, which makes betting on them as the underdog more of a long shot.

   • Betting on the Cardinals is riskier given their recent performance, but with good value at +171, it could be tempting if you're looking for an upset.

3. Over/Under (7.5 runs):

   • Over 7.5 seems like a good bet. The Cardinals have shown the ability to score in bunches, even though their offense has been inconsistent recently, while the Cubs’ lineup has been hot. If Fedde struggles and Boyd gives up a couple of runs, this game could easily go over 7.5 runs.

Betting Recommendation:

1. Bet on Chicago Cubs -1.5

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