Best Bets - 7/11/2025

Good Morning!

Last night our 8 game win streak came to an end. The hardest part to accept is that 5-3 lead our team had at the bottom of the 9th. But… That is sports betting. You will absolutely steal a game sometimes and equally you will absolutely have a game stolen from you at times.

I loved the read and we were right where we needed to be. Unfortunately the Mariners couldn’t close the deal.

Free Bet

Breakdown: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers

  • Date & Time: Friday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

  • Venue: Comerica Park, Detroit

  • Pitching Probables:

    • Seattle Mariners: Luis Castillo (5-5, 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 87 strikeouts)

    • Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal (10-2, 2.02 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 148 strikeouts)

  • Detroit Tigers: 59-35 overall, 32-15 at home

    • Detroit has been dominant this season, with a solid 32-15 home record. Skubal has been excellent, holding a 2.02 ERA, and their offense is effective, ranking fourth in the AL in on-base percentage. The Tigers have outscored opponents by 12 runs over their last 10 games and have a 7-3 record in that stretch.

    • Recent Performance: 7-3 in the last 10 games, .231 batting average, 3.24 ERA, outscored opponents by 12 runs.

  • Seattle Mariners: 48-45 overall, 23-24 on the road

    • The Mariners are coming off a tough stretch, having lost three straight games. Castillo has been a reliable pitcher, but the Mariners' offense has struggled at times, as shown by their lower batting average in the last 10 games. Despite this, they have managed to outscore opponents by 2 runs in the same span.

    • Recent Performance: 5-5 in the last 10 games, .242 batting average, 3.67 ERA, outscored opponents by 2 runs.

Key Players:

  • Detroit Tigers:

    • Riley Greene: Leads the team with 22 home runs and a .524 slugging percentage.

    • Colt Keith: 16 for 35 with four doubles, two home runs, and six RBI over the last 10 games.

  • Seattle Mariners:

    • Cal Raleigh: 16 doubles, 36 home runs, 76 RBI for the Mariners.

    • Randy Arozarena: 11 for 37 with seven home runs and 11 RBI over the last 10 games.

Betting Breakdown:

  • Moneyline:

    • Tigers -226: The Tigers have been dominant, especially at home, and with Skubal on the mound, they look like the stronger team. Their offense is also more potent than the Mariners, and their pitching has been elite, especially with Skubal’s 2.02 ERA.

    • Mariners +185: Despite a solid performance from Castillo, the Mariners have struggled on the road, and the Tigers’ pitching advantage makes them the favorites here.

  • Over/Under:

    • Under 7 runs: With both teams having strong pitchers in Castillo and Skubal, and both teams not being extremely prolific offensively, this game could be low-scoring. The under is a solid choice considering both teams’ recent form.

  • Run Line:

    • Tigers -1.5 +100: Given the Tigers' strong pitching and recent form, they have a good chance to cover the spread, especially against a Mariners team that's been struggling on the road.

Betting Recommendation:

  • Run Line: Tigers -1.5 +100
    Given the Tigers' overall form and pitching advantage, they are likely to cover the spread in this matchup.

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