Best Bets - 7/1/202

July 01, 2025

Good Morning!

Hope you all are well.

We’ve got our best bet of the night selected and going out to our subscribers. Thank you all for reading and opening this email!

Full Breakdown: Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins

Pitching Matchup:

  1. Minnesota Twins - Joe Ryan (8-3, 2.86 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 104 strikeouts):

    • Joe Ryan has been exceptional for the Twins, with a 2.86 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, making him one of the more reliable pitchers in the AL. His ability to limit walks and generate strikeouts (104 strikeouts) has been key to his success. His .209 batting average against suggests he's tough to hit, and he could be a major factor in shutting down the Marlins' offense.

    • Key Strengths: Low ERA, strong strikeout rate, excellent control. Ryan is one of the best pitchers for the Twins, especially against weaker offenses.

    • Key Weaknesses: If he's not at his best, he can give up a few home runs, but overall, he is very reliable.

  2. Miami Marlins - Edward Cabrera (2-2, 3.78 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 69 strikeouts):

    • Edward Cabrera has posted a solid 3.78 ERA, but his 1.37 WHIP indicates he can be a bit wild at times, allowing more base runners than desired. While he has a good strikeout rate (69 strikeouts), his control could be a concern against a team like Minnesota, which has a high on-base percentage.

    • Key Strengths: Solid ERA and strikeout ability. When Cabrera is on, he can be very difficult for hitters to square up.

    • Key Weaknesses: Walks and base runners, as indicated by his 1.37 WHIP. If he struggles with control, the Twins could capitalize on that.

Offensive Overview:

  1. Minnesota Twins:

    • The Twins have been inconsistent offensively, especially on the road with a 18-27 record away from home. However, they have a 29-13 record when they score at least eight hits, indicating their offense is potent when they get going. Byron Buxton leads the team with a .281 batting average, 10 doubles, 3 triples, and 19 home runs. He's their most dangerous hitter and will likely be the key to their success in this matchup.

    • Key Strengths: Buxton's power and ability to produce extra-base hits. If they get multiple hits, they're likely to score runs.

    • Key Weaknesses: Inconsistent offense, especially on the road. If they fail to get hits, they struggle to score.

  2. Miami Marlins:

    • The Marlins have a .271 batting average over their last 10 games, and they have been on a hot streak, going 8-2 in that stretch. Kyle Stowers and Otto Lopez have been key contributors. Lopez, in particular, is red-hot with 17 hits over his last 41 at-bats. The Marlins have a .317 on-base percentage, ranking them 10th in the NL, showing they get on base at a solid clip.

    • Key Strengths: Strong recent form, good batting average, and getting on base. They’ve been scoring a lot recently.

    • Key Weaknesses: Lack of power—while they get on base, they don't have a lot of pop in their lineup compared to other teams.

  1. Minnesota Twins:

    • The Twins have been struggling recently, with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games. Their .221 batting average and 6.44 ERA indicate they’ve been both struggling offensively and allowing too many runs.

    • Key Strengths: Good starting pitching with Ryan on the mound. If their offense clicks, they can score plenty of runs.

    • Key Weaknesses: Recent struggles on offense, especially in road games.

  2. Miami Marlins:

    • The Marlins are in great form, with an 8-2 record over the last 10 games. Their offense has been productive, as seen with their .271 batting average and strong recent run differential.

    • Key Strengths: Hot offense, especially in the last 10 games. They’ve been outscoring opponents and getting key performances from Lopez and Stowers.

    • Key Weaknesses: Inconsistency across the season as a whole. Their overall record is under .500, and they need to avoid getting into a rut with their hitting.

Betting Analysis:

  1. Minnesota Twins -145:

    • The Twins are favored at -145, largely due to Joe Ryan on the mound. With his 2.86 ERA and ability to limit base runners, the Twins have the advantage on the pitching side. However, the Marlins have been in good form recently and could make this game competitive.

    • Key Strengths: Ryan’s excellent form gives the Twins a strong chance to win. If their offense clicks, they should win.

  2. Miami Marlins +121:

    • The Marlins are underdogs at +121, but with their recent 8-2 run, they could provide value in this matchup. Cabrera has been solid, but the Marlins need to support him with offense, which has been firing on all cylinders lately.

    • Key Strengths: Hot offense, good recent form, and decent pitching.

  3. Over/Under 7.5 runs:

    • The over might be a safer bet here, given that the Marlins' offense has been productive recently and Joe Ryan might give up a few runs, even though he’s been solid. The Twins also have the potential to score runs, especially against a pitcher like Cabrera, who can be prone to giving up hits.

Betting Recommendation:

  • Bet on the Twins -145: Joe Ryan is the key factor in this matchup, and given the struggles of Cabrera at times, the Twins should have the advantage. With their pitching depth and the ability to score if they get hits, they are the better bet to win this game.