Best Bets - 5/5/2025

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Good Morning!

Our Baseball A.I. has given us 2 best bets for the day!

Let’s lock in and cash them!

The Los Angeles Dodgers (23-11) will face the Miami Marlins (13-20) on Monday at 6:40 p.m. EDT in Miami.

Starting Pitchers:

• Dodgers: Ben Casparius (3-0, 2.91 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 23 strikeouts)

• Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (2-3, 8.31 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 19 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Dodgers -180, Marlins +150

• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

• Over/Under: 9.5 runs

Analysis:

• Dodgers Strengths:

  • The Dodgers are performing at a high level with a 23-11 record, including an 8-8 road record. Their offense has been explosive, ranking among the best in MLB with a team batting average of .312 over the last 10 games.

  • Ben Casparius has been solid with a 2.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, making him a reliable pitcher for the Dodgers.

  • Key performers like Teoscar Hernandez (9 home runs) and Andy Pages (3 home runs in the last 10 games) have been instrumental in driving the Dodgers' offense.

• Marlins Struggles:

  • The Marlins are struggling with a 13-20 record, including a 9-10 home record. Their offense has been underperforming with a .214 batting average over the last 10 games.

  • Sandy Alcantara has had a rough start to the season with an 8.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, making it difficult for the Marlins to stay competitive against high-caliber teams like the Dodgers.

  • Despite some individual performances from players like Matt Mervis (7 home runs) and Kyle Stowers (4 home runs in the last 10 games), the Marlins have not been able to sustain consistent offensive production.

Betting Recommendations:

• Moneyline: The Dodgers -180 are strong favorites, and given the struggles of Alcantara and the Marlins' overall form, the Dodgers are the safer pick. The Marlins at +150 offer value as underdogs, but they are a high-risk option considering their recent struggles.

• Run Line: The Dodgers -1.5 (-120) seems like a solid bet, especially with the Marlins' offensive woes and Alcantara's struggles. The Marlins +1.5 could offer value if you believe the game will be closer, but the Dodgers' strength should allow them to cover the spread.

• Over/Under: The over/under is set at 9.5 runs. Given Alcantara's struggles and the Dodgers' potent offense, betting on the over seems reasonable, especially with the potential for a high-scoring game.

Conclusion: Betting on the Dodgers -1.5 at -120 offers good value.

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