Best Bets - 5/27/2025

Good Morning!

The Atlanta Braves (25-27) will face the Philadelphia Phillies (34-19) on Tuesday at 6:45 p.m. EDT in Philadelphia.

Starting Pitchers:

• Braves: Spencer Strider (0-2, 5.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8 strikeouts)

• Phillies: Ranger Suarez (3-0, 3.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 23 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Phillies -115, Braves -104

• Over/Under: 8.5 runs

Analysis:

• Phillies’ Strengths:

  • The Phillies have been in excellent form with a 34-19 overall record, including 17-8 at home. They are 25-10 in games when they record 8 or more hits, showing their offensive consistency.

  • Ranger Suarez has been solid with a 3.70 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. While he’s not as dominant as some other pitchers, he has been reliable in keeping the Phillies competitive.

  • Kyle Schwarber continues to lead with 18 home runs, and Trea Turner has been hitting well with 3 home runs and 9 RBIs over the past 10 games, adding depth to the lineup.

• Braves’ Strengths:

  • The Braves are struggling with a 25-27 record overall and a poor 9-18 road record. Their offense is potent but has been inconsistent at times, ranking 8th in the NL for on-base percentage (.319).

  • Spencer Strider has struggled with a 5.79 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, which has hindered his ability to consistently perform. He has the strikeout ability but can struggle with control.

  • Marcell Ozuna has been a bright spot, leading the Braves with a .278 batting average, 9 home runs, and 43 walks. He, along with Drake Baldwin, who has 2 home runs in the last 10 games, will be key for the Braves' offense.

Betting Recommendations:

• Moneyline: The Phillies -115 are the slight favorites, and with Suarez’s solid form and the Braves’ struggles on the road, they should be the safer pick. The Braves +104 could provide value if you think Strider will bounce back, but his inconsistencies this season make the Phillies the more reliable option.

• Run Line: The Phillies -1.5 at +150 could offer value, especially with Suarez’s solid pitching and the Phillies' offensive depth. However, if you expect a closer game, betting on the Braves +1.5 at -160 might be more prudent.

• Total: The over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Given Strider's struggles and the Phillies’ offense, betting on the over 8.5 runs could be a reasonable choice, especially if Suarez is not able to contain the Braves’ hitters, or if Strider gives up runs early.

Conclusion: Betting on the Phillies to win at -115

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