Best Bets - 5/17/2025

Good Afternoon,

We’ve got a couple best bets for you today! Be sure to sign up for the premium membership to get all bets!

Free Bet

The Tampa Bay Rays (20-24) will face the Miami Marlins (17-26) on Saturday at 4:10 p.m. EDT in Miami.

Starting Pitchers:

• Rays: Drew Rasmussen (1-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 35 strikeouts)

• Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (2-5, 8.10 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 31 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

• Moneyline: Rays -150, Marlins +125

• Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+120)

• Over/Under: 8 runs

Analysis:

• Rays’ Strengths:

  • The Rays have been inconsistent but are still a potent team with a 9-7 road record and a 20-24 overall record. Their offense has been strong in games where they score 5 or more runs, boasting a 13-1 record in those instances.

  • Drew Rasmussen has been solid on the mound with a 3.38 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His ability to keep runners off base and limit damage will be crucial against the Marlins’ offense.

  • Junior Caminero and Brandon Lowe provide significant power for the Rays, with Caminero hitting 8 home runs and Lowe contributing 3 home runs in the past 10 games.

• Marlins’ Struggles:

  • The Marlins are struggling with a 17-26 record and a 4-6 mark in their last 10 games. While they have a decent 15-4 record when they out-hit their opponents, they’ve been inconsistent overall.

  • Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins' ace, has struggled this season with an 8.10 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. His pitching woes make the Marlins vulnerable against a team like the Rays.

  • Xavier Edwards has been a solid contributor for the Marlins, and Connor Norby has been effective recently, but they’ll need more offensive support to compete with the Rays.

Betting Recommendations:

• Moneyline: The Rays -150 are favored, and with Rasmussen’s strong form and the Marlins’ struggles on both sides of the game, the Rays are the safer pick. The Marlins +125 offer value if you believe Alcantara can turn his season around, but his struggles make this a risky play.

• Run Line: The Rays -1.5 (+120) looks like a solid option, especially with Alcantara’s pitching struggles. Given the Marlins’ inconsistent offense and the Rays’ ability to dominate when they score runs, the Rays -1.5 at +120 provides good value.

• Total: The over/under is set at 8 runs. Given both teams’ pitching struggles (particularly Alcantara’s form), betting on the over 8 runs could be a reasonable option, especially if the Rays’ offense gets going.

Conclusion: Betting on the Rays -1.5 at +120 offers strong value

Subscribe to Premium Data to read the rest.