Best Bets - 5/10/2025

Good Morning!

Our MLB A.I simulator has given us the results to today’s games and we’ve come up with 2 best bets on the day!

The Texas Rangers (18-20) will face the Detroit Tigers (25-13) on Friday at 6:40 p.m. EDT in Detroit.

Starting Pitchers:

  • Rangers: Patrick Corbin (2-1, 3.28 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 17 strikeouts)

  • Tigers: Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.21 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 48 strikeouts)

Betting Lines:

  • Moneyline: Tigers -271, Rangers +220

  • Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (-120)

  • Over/Under: 7.5 runs

Analysis:

  • Tigers’ Strengths:

    • The Tigers have been on a roll with a 25-13 overall record and a 13-3 record at home. Their offense has been solid, ranking third in the AL for team on-base percentage at .336.

    • Tarik Skubal has been excellent with a 2.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, making him a strong asset on the mound for the Tigers.

    • Players like Kerry Carpenter (8 home runs) and Riley Greene (4 home runs in the last 10 games) provide a powerful offensive threat.

  • Rangers’ Struggles:

    • The Rangers have struggled on the road with a 6-12 record, and their overall 18-20 record reflects inconsistency. They’ve been decent offensively, ranking 8th in the AL in runs scored.

    • Patrick Corbin has been solid with a 3.28 ERA but has struggled with a higher WHIP (1.50). His ability to manage the Tigers’ offense will be key in this matchup.

    • Adolis Garcia has been leading the Rangers with 5 home runs and 20 RBIs, and Josh Smith has also been contributing with 1 home run and 4 RBIs over the last 10 games.

Betting Recommendations:

  • Moneyline: The Tigers are heavily favored at -271, reflecting their strong home record and Skubal’s solid pitching form. The Tigers are the safer pick here, though the Rangers at +220 provide potential value if you're looking for an underdog bet, especially with their offensive power.

  • Run Line: The Tigers -1.5 (-120) makes a lot of sense, considering their dominant form and pitching advantage with Skubal. The Rangers +1.5 offers some value if you expect a closer game, but the Tigers should be able to win by more than a run.

  • Total: The over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Given both teams' current pitching and offensive form, betting on the under 7.5 runs could be a solid choice, particularly with Skubal’s dominant pitching and Corbin’s solid but not overpowering form.

Conclusion: Betting on the Tigers -1.5 at -120 offers strong value, considering their home dominance and Skubal’s form.

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