Good Morning!

We went 2-2 in our PrimeTime preview last night. Not great. Not awful. We move on.

Today, I don’t like any bets in the college football matchups.

I have found some value in college basketball, though.

Today is free to all. Enjoy!

Cornell vs La Salle

Breakdown of Key Factors

1. Spread (-4.5 La Salle):

   • La Salle is favored by 4.5 points, and the predictive model favors them by six points (79-73), suggesting they might cover this spread.

   • With a 70% chance of winning, La Salle is a strong choice for covering, but there’s limited value given the tight predicted margin.

2. Over/Under (155.5):

   • The predicted total is right at 152 points (79 + 73), close but slightly under the set line of 155.5.

   • Both teams would need to have above-average offensive nights for this total to hit, so taking the under may hold more value.

Best Bet

Under 155.5 Total Points looks like the most favorable bet based on this analysis. The predicted final score points to a slight under, and with both teams’ implied scoring not far from the threshold, this could turn into a lower-scoring game if either team underperforms offensively. The spread and moneyline don’t present as strong a value due to the limited margin between the model’s prediction and the set lines.

George Washington vs North Carolina A&T

Breakdown of Key Factors

1. Spread (-12.5 George Washington):

   • The spread is set at -12.5, and the predictive model suggests a final score of 82-68 in favor of George Washington. This 14-point difference indicates George Washington could cover the spread.

   • Given their 89% win probability, George Washington is expected to dominate, but covering by 12.5 points will require consistent scoring.

2. Over/Under (154.5):

   • The model’s projected total score is 150 (82 + 68), which is slightly under the set line of 154.5.

   • If George Washington gains a significant lead early, the game may slow down, which would favor the under.

Best Bet

Under 154.5 Total Points now edges out as the best bet. The slight line increase provides a bit more cushion if the game pace slows in the second half due to a potential large lead by George Washington. That said, George Washington -12.5 still has value as well, given the predicted 14-point margin, but the under at 154.5 now presents stronger value.

Penn State vs St. Francis

Best Bet - Penn State -26.5

Penn State has been blowing out opponents this year while scoring ovr 100 points in each of their games.

St. Francis doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with this Penn State offense and it could get ugly.

I like Penn State to cover here.