Yo!

Wasn’t that fun last night?! 4-1 on our bets in the Seahawks/Lions game including a +175 TD prop. We were so close to 5-0! Geno had so many opportunities to get his second TD but came up short.

I always get a nasty email or two when I talk about our premium service (don’t worry, I don’t mind them lol) but I have a premium service for 2 reasons:

1) I know that the system I’ve built is good at what it does! It’s going to produce winning results way more often than losing and I think if you’ve been here any amount of time you’ve seen that.

2) This is a LOT of work! Having a little “skin in the game” keeps me consistent and posting everyday even when I may not feel like it.

With that being said, we’ve got more “PrimeTime Previews” this week as well as a NICE college football bet I’ll be sending out later today.

Check out our premium service so that you don’t miss these great opportunities to add to your bankroll!

Playoff Baseball

Tigers vs Astros - Game 1 Wild Card Preview

Pick: Astros Moneyline (-142 | Play to -160)

Game Information:

• Date/Time: Tuesday, October 1st, 2:32 p.m. ET

• Broadcast: ABC

• Location: Houston, TX

Pitching Matchup:

• Tigers: LHP Tarik Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 5.9 fWAR)

• Astros: LHP Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.6 fWAR)

Tigers Betting Preview:

• Tarik Skubal has been dominant in the regular season, posting elite metrics like a 2.39 ERA and a strikeout rate of 30.3%. However, this will be his first postseason appearance, and the Tigers’ lineup has struggled against lefties. Over the last month, Detroit posted a 69 wRC+ against southpaws, paired with a high 31% strikeout rate.

• The Tigers' bullpen has been a strength, with a 3.72 xFIP and excellent control (6.1% walk rate). However, they may have a hard time compensating for their offense’s inability to perform against left-handed pitching.

Astros Betting Preview:

• Framber Valdez has been solid with a 2.91 ERA in 2024, complemented by an excellent groundball rate (60.6%). Despite giving up some hard contact, the Tigers' struggles against lefties suggest Valdez could neutralize Detroit’s lineup.

• The Astros excel against left-handed pitching, sporting a 147 wRC+ over the past month. With hitters like Yordan Álvarez and Chas McCormick potentially in the lineup, Houston's offense could put pressure on Skubal early and often. The Astros' bullpen has also been strong, with a 3.40 xFIP and a high 28.3% strikeout rate in the last month.

Prediction & Best Bet:

The Astros have a significant advantage over the Tigers due to their ability to hit left-handed pitching and their overall deeper lineup. Skubal is having a great season, but his inexperience in the postseason combined with the Tigers' offensive struggles against lefties points toward the Astros as the safer pick.

Bet: Astros Moneyline (-142) up to -160 is the best value in this matchup.

____________

Royals vs. Orioles - AL Wild Card Game 1 Betting Preview

Game Information:

• Date/Time: Tuesday, October 1st, 2024, 4:08 p.m. ET

• Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland

• Broadcast: ESPN2

• Odds:

  • Moneyline: Orioles -159, Royals +135

  • Run Line: Orioles -1.5 (+145), Royals +1.5 (-174)

  • Total: 7 runs (Over +100, Under -120)

Prediction:

• Win Probability: Orioles 53%, Royals 47%

Orioles Betting Insights:

• Baltimore has been favored in 117 games this season, winning 67 of those matchups (57.3%).

• The Orioles have performed well when favored by at least -159, winning 60.4% of such games.

• They have a 61.4% implied chance of winning based on the moneyline odds.

• The Orioles' recent form is solid, going 7-3 in their last 10 games, scoring 5.6 runs per game and hitting 17 home runs.

Key Players:

• Gunnar Henderson leads the team with 37 homers and 92 RBIs, hitting .281 on the season.

• Anthony Santander has been a power force, belting 44 home runs with 102 RBIs.

• Adley Rutschman and Ryan O'Hearn provide additional offensive support with consistent hitting and run production.

Royals Betting Insights:

• Kansas City has been underdogs in 81 games this season, winning 35 of them (43.2%).

• The Royals have a 42.6% implied victory chance for this matchup.

• Kansas City has struggled in their last 10 games, scoring just 1.9 runs per game with a 4-6 record, but their pitching staff has performed well with a 2.32 ERA and 9.1 K/9.

Key Players:

• Bobby Witt Jr. is the Royals' top performer, hitting .332 with 32 home runs and 109 RBIs, making him a key figure for the Royals’ offense.

• Salvador Perez continues to be a threat, with 27 home runs and 28 doubles.

• The Royals’ offense has been inconsistent, but Maikel Garcia and Hunter Renfroe provide some support.

Betting Analysis:

• Orioles Moneyline (-159): Baltimore has a stronger offense and home-field advantage. Given their recent form and their ability to score runs, they are favored to win this game.

• Over 7 Runs (+100): With the Orioles’ offense clicking and the Royals’ pitching performing decently, there’s a solid chance this game could hit the over, especially with both teams having key hitters capable of producing runs.

Pick:

• Best Bet: Orioles Moneyline (-159) – Baltimore is expected to handle business at home.

• Additional Bet: Over 7 runs (+100) – Given both teams’ offensive potential, the over offers value.

________________

Mets vs. Brewers - NL Wild Card Game 1 Betting Preview

Game Information:

• Date/Time: Tuesday, October 1st, 2024, 5:32 p.m. ET

• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

• Broadcast: ESPN

• Odds:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -141, Mets +119

  • Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+155), Mets +1.5 (-186)

  • Total: 7.5 runs (Over -105, Under -115)

Prediction:

• Win Probability: Brewers 54%, Mets 46%

Brewers Betting Insights:

• Milwaukee has been favored in 91 games this season, winning 59.3% of them (54 wins).

• They’ve done well when favored by at least -141, winning 60% of those games.

• The Brewers have a 58.5% implied win probability.

• Milwaukee has split their last 10 games 5-5, averaging 4.2 runs per game with a 3.74 ERA.

Key Players:

• William Contreras is the Brewers' offensive leader, hitting .281 with 23 home runs and 92 RBIs.

• Willy Adames brings power with 32 home runs and 112 RBIs.

• Jackson Chourio has been in form, contributing 21 homers and 29 doubles while batting .275.

Mets Betting Insights:

• The Mets have played as underdogs in 63 games this season, winning 44.4% (28 games).

• As underdogs of +119 or longer, the Mets have a 14-11 record (winning 56%).

• The Mets' recent form is also 5-5 in their last 10 games, with their pitching staff struggling to a 5.02 ERA, while they’ve averaged 3.8 runs per game.

Key Players:

• Francisco Lindor leads the team with a .273 average, 91 RBIs, and 34 home runs.

• Pete Alonso is their main power hitter, contributing 34 home runs, making him 12th in MLB.

• Brandon Nimmo and Jesse Winker provide depth, but the Mets will need a strong performance from their top hitters to challenge the Brewers.

Betting Analysis:

• Brewers Moneyline (-141): Milwaukee has been solid when favored and should have the edge at home, particularly with their stronger pitching staff.

• Over 7.5 runs (-105): With both teams averaging over 4 runs per game recently, the over looks like a strong bet, especially given the Mets' high team ERA and potential for runs in this series opener.

Pick:

• Best Bet: Brewers Moneyline (-141) – Milwaukee’s pitching and home-field advantage make them the better choice to win.

• Additional Bet: Over 7.5 runs (-105) – Expect a high-scoring affair with both teams capable of putting runs on the board.

___________

Braves vs. Padres - NL Wild Card Game 1 Betting Preview

Game Information:

• Date/Time: Tuesday, October 1st, 2024, 8:38 p.m. ET

• Location: PETCO Park, San Diego, California

• Broadcast: ESPN

• Odds:

  • Moneyline: Padres -162, Braves +137

  • Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+142), Braves +1.5 (-170)

  • Total: 7 runs (Over -108, Under -112)

Prediction:

• Win Probability: Padres 54%, Braves 46%

Padres Betting Insights:

• San Diego has won 61 of 102 games as favorites (59.8%).

• They’ve been even better when favored by -162 or more, with a 65.6% win rate.

• The moneyline implies a 61.8% chance of a Padres win.

• The Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 games, averaging 3.8 runs per game with a strong 3.07 team ERA.

Key Players:

• Jurickson Profar has been steady, batting .280 with 24 home runs and 76 RBIs.

• Manny Machado leads the team with 29 homers and 105 RBIs.

• Jackson Merrill has been in good form, hitting .292 with 24 homers and 31 doubles.

Braves Betting Insights:

• The Braves have been underdogs in 29 games, winning 44.8% of those contests.

• As underdogs of +137 or longer, they’ve lost both games.

• The Braves’ moneyline suggests a 42.2% chance of victory.

• Atlanta’s recent form is strong, going 7-3 in their last 10 games, scoring 5.1 runs per game, with an impressive 2.63 team ERA.

Key Players:

• Marcell Ozuna leads the Braves with 39 home runs, 104 RBIs, and a .302 average, ranking 5th in MLB for home runs.

• Matt Olson has been productive with 29 homers and 37 doubles.

• Jorge Soler has 21 homers and 34 doubles, adding power to the Braves’ lineup.

Betting Analysis:

• Padres Moneyline (-162): San Diego’s form at home and depth in both pitching and hitting make them the better choice. Their strong record as favorites adds to this.

• Over 7 runs (-108): The Braves have been scoring well recently, and the Padres have the power to contribute to a high-scoring game. The over looks appealing, especially given both teams' recent trends.

Pick:

• Best Bet: Padres Moneyline (-162) – San Diego's depth and recent form should see them through at home.

• Additional Bet: Over 7 runs (-108) – Both teams have solid offenses, and with this being a Wild Card game, the intensity could lead to more runs.