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Hi All,

Yesterday we went 2-0 on our bets given to premium subscribers!

I am a man of the people. I received a fair amount of feedback yesterday and am happy to make a change.

For those of you who reached out respectfully I appreciate you. It is because of you we will make this change for all.

(And yes, there is a FREE BET after this announcement)

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Here is the change along with an explanation:

I will only email free users if there is a bet for them. I will not send out anymore emails where there is a short preview and then all the bets are behind a paywall.

This will mean there may be a day or 2 per week where you don’t receive an email.

This may also mean you receive a bet or two and there are more bets exclusive to premium members.

But if I send you an email to open there will be something in it for you.

Let me briefly explain why the premium version exists:

I started this as a totally free publication. I’ve been sharp at betting for a handful of years and finally felt confident sharing what I am doing.

It was great and still is great. I learned that a daily publication is a lot of work.

After a few months I was feeling burnt out on writing and contemplated stopping.

Instead, I added a very cheap paid premium version to my writing. This rewarded the time I was putting in a bit and keeps me accountable to write everyday because that’s what I’ve promised premium subscribers.

It’s kind of like if you didn’t get paid to show up to work. Most of us would likely be inconsistent with our attendance and eventually probably wouldn’t show up at all.

This letter is no good if you can’t count on an email coming to you each day.

The paid version rewards my time and keeps me accountable. I realize the paid version isn’t for everyone.

I’ve probably gone a little overboard promoting it the past few weeks.

Premium subscribers will continue to get my highest quality and highest volume of bets.

I will make sure that I don’t bother those of you on the free list unless I’ve got a bet for you.

Let’s get to today’s bet!

Syracuse vs Pittsburgh

Key Points:

• Syracuse:

  • Strong passing offense (ranked 2nd, 365 yards per game).

  • Weak rushing offense (ranked 120th, only 104 yards per game).

  • Solid rush defense (49th, allowing 127 yards per game).

  • Vulnerable pass defense (89th, allowing 229 yards per game).

  • Middle-tier strength of schedule (88th).

• Pittsburgh:

  • Balanced offense, with a solid passing attack (12th, 305 yards per game) and decent rushing game (50th, 175 yards per game).

  • Strong rush defense (24th, allowing 108 yards per game), which could make it difficult for Syracuse to improve its already struggling ground game.

  • Vulnerable pass defense (104th, allowing 244 yards per game), which could be exploited by Syracuse's high-powered passing attack.

  • Slightly easier strength of schedule (102nd), but an undefeated record (6-0).

Analysis:

• Pittsburgh’s pass defense (104th) is a major weak point, and Syracuse’s passing offense (2nd) is elite, meaning Syracuse should have opportunities to move the ball effectively through the air.

• Syracuse struggles on the ground, but Pittsburgh's strong rush defense might not matter much since the Orange rely so heavily on their passing game.

• On the other hand, Pittsburgh’s balanced offense should still be effective against Syracuse’s defense, which is middle of the pack overall. However, their pass-heavy offense could see some limitations with Syracuse being slightly better at pass defense than run defense.

Best Bet: Syracuse +5.5 (-110)

• Why? Syracuse's passing attack is among the best in the country, and Pittsburgh’s pass defense is weak. With a line of +5.5, there's value in backing Syracuse to keep the game close or even pull off an upset. Even if Pittsburgh wins, Syracuse's passing offense should allow them to cover the spread. Additionally, the Orange have a solid defense overall, which could help them hold Pittsburgh within striking distance.

Premium users:

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